CRUNCH TIME FOR NEGOTIATING THE RETURN TO DEMOCRACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001075

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL BG
SUBJECT: CRUNCH TIME FOR NEGOTIATING THE RETURN TO DEMOCRACY

REF: DHAKA 1069

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The two Caretaker Government Advisers leading
negotiations with political parties on terms to ensure a
smooth return to democracy explained to Ambassador Moriarty
on 10/14 their end-game strategy. The key elements of their
plan were to convince the two major parties to refrain from
nominating for Parliament at least some of their most corrupt
partisans; to hold local elections right after the Parliament
vote to decentralize political power; and to promote a
pre-election summit at which former Prime Ministers Khaleda
Zia and Sheikh Hasina would agree to accept the election
results. Communications Adviser Major General (retired)
Ghulam Quader and Education Adviser Hossain Zillur Rahman
also discussed how to keep the military supportive of the
political process. They expressed concern that legal efforts
against Zia and Hasina were potential landmines to a smooth
transition. Both men expressed optimism their efforts would
succeed. If this moderate Muslim-majority nation of 150
million people is to avoid sinking into a political morass
they had better be right.

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THE THREE-STEP PLAN
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2. (SBU) The military-backed Caretaker Government running
Bangladesh since January 2007 has been conducting formal
dialogues with all major parties to discuss political
concerns in the run-up to the Parliamentary elections
December 18. Advisers Quader and Zillur met with the
Ambassador October 14 just hours before their first formal
negotiating session with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party
(BNP). (Note: While the meeting with the BNP broke up with no
announced agreement on measures to ensure a free and fair
vote, the two sides planned to meet again. End note.) The
Advisers were optimistic that the BNP would follow its
arch-rivals, the Awami League, and register for the
Parliamentary elections; earlier in the week the Election
Commission extended the registration deadline by five days
from October 15 to accomodate the party. BNP Chairperson
Khaleda Zia on October 13 indicated to the Ambassador her
party would participate in the elections (reftel).


3. (C) The Advisers confirmed the effort by some to replace
the Caretaker Government with a national unity government
involving all major parties had ended. Instead, the Advisers
enumerated three steps they considered the best bet for
ensuring a smooth transition back to democracy. First, the
major parties should agree to so-called "negative lists" of
partisans tainted by corruption who would not run for
Parliament. Second, the Government should stick to its plan
to hold upazilla (county-level) elections just days after the
national election to prevent newly elected Members of
Parliament from influencing the results. Finally, BNP
Chairperson Khaleda Zia and Awami League President Sheikh
Hasina should put aside their rabid personal animosity and
hold a pre-election summit to publicly agree to accept the
election results. The two women also could agree on
democratic reforms that would ensure a substantive role for
the opposition party in governance. That would be a break
from the country's traditional winner-take-all political
mentality.

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NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE TASK
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4. (C) Leading officials in both parties have expressed
interest in reaching agreement to exclude from Parliament at
least some senior members with unsavory reputations. Khaleda
Zia has expressed support for a summit, while Sheikh Hasina
has promised a decision upon returning to Bangladesh from the
United States, where she is on medical parole. Zillur said
the Advisers were urging representatives for the two ladies
to prepare an agenda for a summit. Both parties, however,
have expressed strong opposition to holding the upazilla
elections under the Caretaker Government, preferring to delay

DHAKA 00001075 002 OF 002


the vote so that their new Members of Parliament can campaign
for local allies. Neither the BNP nor Awami League, however,
has indicated it would withdraw from the political process
should the local elections be held in late December as now
scheduled.

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KEEPING THE SOLDIERS ON SIDE
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5. (C) Quader noted that some within the armed forces worried
that the political parties would seek revenge against
military leaders who supported the Caretaker Government,
which during its tenure aggressively prosecuted Zia, Hasina
and scores of other senior politicians on graft charges. He
suggested the formation of a national security council could
ease those concerns by ensuring the military retained some
role in government. Zillur said its members might include the
Army Chief, the President, and Zia and Hasina. Quader said
Hasina had accepted the concept, but Zia believed any action
on the issue should await the sitting of the new Parliament.
The Ambassador suggested any new body not be called a
"National Security Council" because such a name would raise
concerns of a sustained political role for the armed forces.


6. (C) The Advisers also said the future of Chief of Army
Staff Moeen Uddin Ahmed, a strong supporter of the Caretaker
Government and its reforms, must be part of any grand
political settlement. They said Moeen was not keen to become
President, which was a non-starter anyway since any increase
in power of the largely ceremonial position would require a
Constitutional change approved by Parliament. Quader endorsed
the idea of extending by a year Moeen's term as head of the
army, which expires in June 2009. (Note: Moeen himself has
been silent in public about his aspirations after the end of
the Caretaker Government. End note.)

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POTENTIAL SPOILERS
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7. (C) In assessing what could go wrong with their end-game,
the Advisers noted recent court rulings that might create
political trouble. For example, Sheikh Hasina's attempts to
get bail in her graft cases, which the Awami League said was
a precondition for its participation in elections, have been
rejected. (Note: Khaleda Zia was released from jail on bail
in September. End note.) Zillur attributed the failure in
Hasina's case to incompetent defense lawyers and said he
believed the issue ultimately would be resolved. The courts
also have yet to endorse the Caretaker Government's proposal
to redraw Parliamentary districts. Quader said if the plan
remained in legal limbo the Government would revert to the
old boundaries. Finally, Zillur expressed frustration that
the Anti-Corruption Commission continued to file graft cases
against Khaleda Zia and other prominent politicians at a
highly sensitive political time. While not questioning the
merits of the cases themselves, he believed the run-up to the
election was not the time to file cases that could markedly
increase the risk of parties bycotdhne`he Perim\nN{r-0
yfhe%UG{Q+9Z?QNXQQ/horse-trading between the Caretaker Government and the major
parties that will determine the prospects for a smooth return
to democracy. At stake is not only whether Parliamentary
elections will be free and fair, but whether they will lead
to lasting reforms that can help Bangladesh move beyond its
past dysfunctional democracy of endemic graft and violence.
Quader and Zillur clearly are steadying, calming influences
in an otherwise over-heated environment in which most players
are primarily interested in advancing their personal
political prospects. (Note: The two Advisers claim no
political ambition beyond the Caretaker Government. Quader
told the Ambassador he could hardly wait for transition to
conclude so he could go to Brooklyn and spend time with his
family in Prospect Park. End note.) The Embassy will continue
to support their efforts to convince politicians to focus not
only on their parties' well-being but that of their country
as well.
Moriarty