Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08DHAKA1057
2008-10-08 07:41:00
SECRET
Embassy Dhaka
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR COMMANDER OF PACIFIC AIR FORCE

Tags:  PGOV KREL BG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0966
OO RUEHCI
DE RUEHKA #1057/01 2820741
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 080741Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RHMFISS/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI IMMEDIATE
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7501
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 8638
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA PRIORITY 0258
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 9882
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0854
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON PRIORITY 2664
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 1478
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001057 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR GENERAL CHANDLER, FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV KREL BG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR COMMANDER OF PACIFIC AIR FORCE
GENERAL CHANDLER

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

------
SUMMARY
-------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001057

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR GENERAL CHANDLER, FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV KREL BG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR COMMANDER OF PACIFIC AIR FORCE
GENERAL CHANDLER

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Your visit to Bangladesh comes in the twilight of
the Caretaker Government's (CTG) two-year term, amid
preparations for national Parliamentary elections in
December. The return to democracy remains fraught with
uncertainties. Although both major parties, the Awami League
and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),have said they
want to participate in elections not all of their stated
preconditions have been met. Also unclear is how many if any
of the Caretaker Government's reforms to rid government of
endemic corruption and violence will survive under a newly
elected government. As the balance of power swings from the
Government back toward the leaders of the two major parties,
former prime ministers Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League and
Khaleda Zia of the BNP, the ladies have yet to clearly signal
their attitude toward elections and reforms. The result is
persistent concern the elections could herald a return to the
status quo ante and the violent "winner take all" political
culture of Bangladesh.


2. (SBU) USG activities in Bangladesh are based on three
pillars: democratization, development and denial of space to
terrorists. We strongly support the Caretaker Government's
efforts to ensure free, fair and credible elections. We also
call upon the political parties to play a responsible role
before, during and after elections to prevent a return to
dysfunctional democracy. The U.S. funds a comprehensive
development program that includes aid for food, health,
education, economic growth and governance. Thanks to funds
provided by Congress in the FY08 supplemental and FY09
bridge, the USG is playing a substantial role in helping
victims of last year,s cyclone in southern Bangladesh
rebuild their lives. We also cooperate closely with
authorities here to combat terrorism and prevent Bangladesh
from becoming a haven for terrorists.

--------------
DEMOCRACY
--------------


3. (U) The Caretaker Government (CTG) came to power in
January 2007, the day after a State of Emergency was declared
to quell political violence that was spinning out of control
in the run-up to Parliamentary elections. The CTG, made up of

11 non-political advisers and strongly supported by the
military, canceled the elections and began cracking down on
endemic political corruption and violence. The crackdown
initially won broad public support, but frustration with the
Caretaker Government spilled onto the streets in late August
2007; at that point a dispute at Dhaka University between
students and soldiers became a rallying point for thousands
of Bangladeshis disaffected by inflation, other economic woes
and restrictions on political activity. The Government
stopped the protests by imposing a curfew.


4. (U) In September 2008, the Caretaker Government set
December 18 as the date for the delayed Parliamentary
elections and said upazilla (county-level) elections would be
held later that month. The mechanics of holding elections are
largely on track. Compiling a new, credible voter list was
the marquee project undertaken by a reconstituted Election
Commission. The list was put to the test in city and
municipal elections on August 4. According to the Election
Commission, turnout for the city polls ranged from 75 percent
to 93 percent. The Awami League stormed to victory, winning
all four major mayoral slots up for grabs. Election
observers reported some generally minor problems during the
vote and none of the violence that marred past polls. The
BNP boycotted the elections, claiming no vote should be held
under a State of Emergency, a position it still maintains in
the run-up to the Parliamentary elections.


5. (SBU) The continuing negotiations over the return to
democracy involve three key players: the Caretaker
Government, the military and the two main parties, which are

DHAKA 00001057 002 OF 003


again under the direct leadership of Hasina and Zia. (Note:
Both were jailed on a multitude of corruption charges in

2007. Zia was released on bail in September while Hasina has
been out of the country on medical parole since June. Hasina
is now seeking bail, which the Awami League says is a
precondition for participating in elections. End note.) The
Caretaker Government,s Advisers, who act as temporary
ministers, are technocrats; they want to negotiate a smooth
election and a successful return to a less corrupt, more
efficient democracy. What has become clear in recent weeks
is that the two ladies emerged from jail with personal
control over their respective parties as strong as ever.
Although some senior leaders in both parties have voiced
support for reform, neither Sheikh Hasina nor Khaleda Zia has
clearly indicated a desire for a decisive break from the
status quo ante and its minimal checks on the power of the
Parliament and Prime Minister. The advisers hope a summit
between the two ladies might prod them to agree to a number
of reforms, but prospects for such a meeting remain
uncertain.

--------------
DEVELOPMENT
--------------


6. (U) In the midst of this political uncertainty,
Bangladeshis are coping with the aftermath of natural
disasters and spiraling inflation. Cyclone Sidr blasted
through southwestern Bangladesh in November 2007, leaving
thousands of people dead and destroying the homes and
livelihoods of millions. As part of an inter-agency effort,
the U.S. military played a crucial role in relief efforts by
airlifting vitally needed water, food and emergency supplies
to Bangladeshis in remote areas. However, the Government of
Bangladesh and other international donors have not sustained
the strong levels of assistance provided in Sidr's immediate
aftermath, and millions of victims remain in need of aid to
rebuild their lives. The additional $75 million for cyclone
victims recently approved by the U.S. Congress has thus come
at a most opportune time.


7. (SBU) On top of natural disasters, inflation --
particularly of food prices -- remains dangerously high for
Bangladesh's desperately poor population, 84 percent of whom
subsist on less than $2 a day. In response to rising food
and fuel prices, the Caretaker Government in early July
offered a populist budget aimed at softening the impact of
those increases. Overall GDP growth, led by surging exports
of ready made garments, remains strong; the economy grew 6.2
percent in the year ended July 1. While some economists
argue the biggest problem facing the economy is double-digit
inflation, others maintain Bangladesh needs to improve its
energy and transportation infrastructure and grow its way out
of difficulty by expanding exports. Despite differing views,
however, all agree a return to political chaos in the coming
months would deal the economy a crushing blow.

--------------
DENIAL OF SPACE TO TERRORISTS
--------------


8. (SBU) Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority nation with porous
borders -- both land and maritime -- that make it an
attractive transit point and safe-haven for terrorists. The
USG funds many programs in Bangladesh to counter terrorism,
including a wide range of training under the Anti-Terrorist
Assistance program coordinated by the State Department.
USAID and Public Affairs Section programs also address root
causes of extremism through outreach to leaders of influence,
including religious figures, and to madrasas. Human rights
concerns have prevented in the past the USG from providing
training to the paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB),
which is the lead counterterrorism force in Bangladesh.
RAB's record generally has improved under the Caretaker
Government, and the USG recently offered to begin human
rights training upon receipt of additional information on
allegations of past RAB abuses.


9. (S/NF) Bangladesh arrested several hundred alleged
members of Jamaatul Mujahedin Bangladesh (JMB),the banned

DHAKA 00001057 003 OF 003


Islamic extremist group responsible for a wave of bombings
and suicide attacks in late 2005, and recovered bomb-making
materials and weapons from their hideouts. Those arrests,
along with the execution in March 2007 of six senior JMB
leaders, represented a clear blow to the organization. More
recently, however, JMB reportedly has increased recruitment
efforts. Moreover, the GOB has taken relatively little action
against Bangladeshi groups with ties to transnational,
Pakistan-based terrorist organizations. Concerns of possible
violence by extremist organizations in the run-up to
elections remain.

--------------
YOUR VISIT
--------------


10. (SBU) Your visit to Bangladesh will highlight the
importance the USG places on bilateral relations as well as
on the Bangladesh military remaining a professional force
that serves as a role model for Bangladeshi society. It will
underscore USG support for free, fair and credible elections
in December, and for continuing political dialogue to ensure
Bangladesh does not revert to chronically corrupt and violent
politics. Your meetings with senior Bangladeshi military and
civilian officials will provide opportunities to stress the
importance of a restoration of democracy and of bilateral
cooperation in combating terrorism.
Moriarty