TROUBLES AT HOME FOR KIKWETE? SIGNS OF A WEAKENING

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 000737


AF/E PASS TREASURY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL TZ
SUBJECT: TROUBLES AT HOME FOR KIKWETE? SIGNS OF A WEAKENING
DOMESTIC POSITION

REF: A. A. DAR 708

B. B. DAR 461

C. C. DAR 722

D. D. DAR 555

E. E. DAR 634

Classified By: ambassador mark a. green for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary. A number of recent events indicate that
President Kikwete faces increased domestic pressure,
especially from within his ruling CCM but also from the
public. Several times over the past months, the GOT - and
CCM - have made missteps or miscalculations that seem to
betray a loss of confidence. These stumbles include the ban
on a small news outlet for naming alleged plotters against
Kikwete's standing for a second term, CCM's by-election loss
after a major campaign effort, and the disappointment of
Kikwete's address to parliament. At the same time, the
chorus of public and private expressions of discontent over
his leadership has grown louder. Although a one-term Kikwete
presidency remains a remote possibility, it is no longer
unthinkable. End summary.


2. (C) The most recent signal of trouble within CCM is the
GOT's decision to ban Mwanahalisi (ref a). The story that
occasioned the ban described a plot by a CCM faction to limit
Kikwete to one term. The story rehashed a rumor printed
several months earlier, but it was the naming of several
alleged conspirators that earned the GOT's ire. The Minister
of Information cited the naming of Kikwete's son Ramadhani as
one of the reasons for the ban, but we have also heard that
it was the appearance of Minister for Home Affairs Lawrence
Masha on the list that caused more concern. Masha is a close
associate of former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, who left
office under a cloud in February but remains a significant
power broker and financier for CCM.


3. (C) Rather than letting the story pass quietly, the GOT's
ban ensured that the content would be picked up by all the
major newspapers and other media. Further, the ban had the
immediate effect of tarnishing the GOT's image as a proponent
of media freedom, which had improved significantly in
Kikwete's time in office. The overreaction to the
Mwanahalisi story follows another recent example of
unnecessary GOT heavy-handedness, the April arrest of several
Pemban elders who signed a petition seeking greater autonomy
for Pemba (ref b).


4. (C) CCM's loss in the Tarime by-election (ref c) now
appears like a bad gamble. Rather than conceding one of
opposition Chadema's few strongholds, CCM dispatched its top
leadership and expended considerable resources in its
fruitless effort to regain the seat. One of the
explanations we have heard about the results, including from
CCM sources, is that CCM itself was divided about selecting a
candidate, and in the end chose a man without close ties to
the area. The fact that CCM insiders are willing to discuss
internal divisions is notable, since traditionally CCM
internal workings have been notably opaque. We have also
heard the assertion that Kikwete sought to quiet CCM factions
dissatisfied with his leadership by delivering a victory in
Tarime; if that were indeed the case, the effort backfired.


5. (C) Kikwete also gave himself a public black eye with his
August address to parliament (ref d). Expectations ran high,
stoked by government and CCM, that he would use the platform
to announce significant steps to move forward the campaign
against corruption. Instead, he equivocated and pushed back
the deadline for action. While there may yet be indictments
of those involved in corruption scandals, the poor public
handling has stirred discontent among the public (and donors).


6. (C) Criticism of Kikwete for ignoring Tanzania's problems
has become more frequent. In mid-October, prominent Muslim
and Christian clerics called on Tanzania to reduce his
international travels in order to turn attention to domestic
issues. Opposition leaders have offered the same criticism,
and Chadema used Kikwete's foreign travel as a talking point
in its Tarime campaign. In a different manifestation of
discontent, highly unusual for Tanzania, Kikwete's motorcade
was stoned by angry villagers during an official visit to the
oft-neglected Mbeya region.


7. (C) Apart from corruption, the main background to these
criticisms is a perception that Tanzania's economic
performance is lacking. Inflation has risen into double
digits for the first time in Kikwete's presidency. The
nationwide Household Budget Survey (not yet released
officially) shows that despite a decrease in the percentage
of poor Tanzanians, the number living in poverty has
increased.


8. (C) Taken together, these events indicate growing pressure
on Kikwete and reinforce the perception that his capacity to
push an agenda has been weakened (see also ref e). Because
Tanzania's opposition parties remain relatively weak and (so
far) divided, the only serious political challenges Kikwete
faces will come from within CCM. The possibility that a
faction in CCM could gain enough leverage to force Kikwete
not to stand for a second term remains remote, but now bears
more serious consideration.

GREEN