A/S FRAZER DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE, SUDAN, AU ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 000471

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/E FOR JLIDDLE, AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK
ALSO FOR AF/S
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI AU TZ
SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE, SUDAN, AU ISSUES
WITH TANZANIAN PRESIDENT KIKWETE

Classified By: A/S for African Affairs J. E. Frazer for
reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) On the margins of the Leon H. Sullivan Foundation
conference in Arusha, Tanzania on June 3, Assistant Secretary
for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazer, discussed with
Tanzania's President Jakaya Kikwete about preparations
for the June 27 runoff elections in Zimbabwe, the LRA in
Uganda, the situation in Abyei, Darfur, and Djibouti.
Kikwete expressed his concerns about violence against the
Zimbabwe opposition party members and that SADC member
state leaders are divided over the question of election
monitors. A/S Frazer emphasized that the African Union must
step up both with monitors for Zimbabwe and public statements
about the runoff. She asked Kikwete to pass a message to
President Bashir of Sudan that the situation in Abyei has to
be brought under control. End summary.

Zimbabwe
--------------

2. (C) President Kikwete told A/S Frazer he remained
extremely worried about the continuing violence in Zimbabwe
despite appeals to President Mugabe from leaders of nearly
all SADC member states. Tanzania had given Mugabe a strong
message at the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) forum
in Rome that the violence must stop. Kikwete scoffed at
Mugabe's claim that the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
supporters were the perpetrators of the recent
violence: "That is ridiculous; the MDC were arrested in their
offices and at a hotel, not in the act of beating people."
A/S Frazer noted that Angola's President dos Santos had also
promised also to tell Mugabe the violence
must stop.


3. (C) Kikwete said a SADC meeting chaired by Zambia's
President Mwanawasa to discuss election monitors during the
Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD)
in late May had ended in near chaos. "It was a very rough
meeting; I arrived late and there was a shouting match
ongoing between Chairman Mwanawasa and President Mbeki," he
said. Kikwete confided that at the gathering, the SADC
leaders were unable to agree on when and how election
monitors should be deployed to Zimbabwe. A/S Frazer
emphasized the need to quickly get a confirmed response on
monitors from the SADC secretariat: "Time is running out. If
SADC is not going to send monitors, then the African Union
(AU) has to send as many monitors as possible; there remains
only three weeks until the June 27 elections," she stressed.

ZEC is Divided
--------------

4. (C) In Kikwete's view, MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai should
concentrate on how to maintain the resolve of the opposition
and encourage sustainable voter turnout. Kikwete saw some
hope in the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). He said
although accused of being corrupt, the ZEC did complete the
recount in 33 constituencies, and overall, Tsvangirai gained
20,000 votes. However, Kikwete recognizes without full
support from election monitors, the Electoral Commission
would be too weak. A/S Frazer replied she viewed the
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission as divided and not reliable:
the Chair is pro-Mugabe, although other members are more
independent.


5. (C) Kikwete believed that public intimidation is not
having the effect ZANU anticipated, despite statements from
Mugabe such as soldiers who are not prepared to fight for a
Mugabe victory should leave the army now. In his view,
Mugabe's heavy-handed maneuvers could backfire. Kikwete
thought SADC's Chair, President Mwanawasa, is becoming more
effective, speaking out frankly and even being criticized in
the Zimbabwe press. His concern was that no one in SADC
other than President Mbeki can talk to Mugabe. Kikwete noted
Tanzania is being criticized by Mugabe as the "puppet" of the
U.S. and the British. "We can smooth that one over, though,"
he said. "Most importantly we must assure there is protection

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for Tsvangirai."

Time Before Runoff is Short
--------------

6. (C) A/S Frazer expressed outrage that on June 1, Mugabe's
forces had arrested Arthur Mutambara, a Deputy in the MDC.
"This move crossed a line. Mugabe is testing our resolve and
we must have a strong response," she stressed. A/S Frazer
said the U.S. supports the deployment of as many
monitors as possible since Mugabe is obviously determined to
use every means possible to stay in power. She added that
the wife of Mugabe's recent public statement confirmed his
intention. Thus, the AU needs to take a public stand
and speak out that the runoff elections must be fully
monitored to be considered free and fair.


7. (C) A/S Frazer was adamant that unless monitors are in
place throughout Zimbabwe, including rural areas, there is a
high risk someone could be hurt or worse, if not Tsvangirai
then Arthur Mutambara. She told Kikwete that we
share his concern for Tsvangirai's safety to be assured with
VIP protection, as was done in Burundi or Kinshasa when
opposition politicians returned home to form new governments.
"Mugabe may not agree to such guaranteed protection, but we
need to try," she stated.


8. (C) She shared with President Kikwete that Mbeki had sent
President Bush and the British a ten-page letter riddled with
the warning: "You white people should stay out of Zimbabwe's
affairs." President Bush did not and will
not respond. Instead, the White House released a statement
June 2 condemning Zimbabwe's arrest of Arthur Mutambara. A/S
Frazer stressed that the U.S. does not see any conditions in
Zimbabwe to carry out free and fair elections on June 27:
"Time is running out; President dos Santos has told us that
Mugabe would not accept a loss." She told Kikwete that we
all have to step up our statements and our actions; otherwise
the runoff will be fixed and Mugabe will be reelected as
President through intimidation and violence.

Unity Government not an Option
--------------

9. (C) A/S Frazer said a national unity government is
extremely difficult, posing too many obstacles: Who could
create the conditions for a unity government? Who would take
the lead to negotiate for and monitor such a
government: SADC, AU? Thus, the U.S does not prefer a unity
government option. A/S Frazer stressed that the regional
voice must be louder and the AU needs to assert itself.
President Mbeki claims he speaks for SADC, continuing to
legalistically support Mugabe's position that this election
is about liberation. The U.S is convinced that Mbeki is not
capable and only trying to legitimize what is going on in
Zimbabwe with Mugabe using Mbeki as his
shield.


10. (C) Kikwete noted the domestic woes facing Mbeki. His
own ANC party leadership supports Morgan Tsvangirai's
candidacy. In Kikwete's view, Mbeki's facilitation role is
completed: Zimbabwe's security laws, electoral laws, and
the information law have been amended. Mbeki is only using
the "mediation card" to try to have a voice. For example, in
Japan, Mbeki told the SADC Chair, President Mwanawasa that
the discussion on preparations to monitor the Zimbabwe
elections "is not your business," but should be dealt with by
SADC's Organ for Politics and Security, currently chaired by
Angola, with Tanzania and Swaziland as members. Kikwete
lamented that Angola's President dos Santos, who is suffering
from cancer, never travels, often is not
available, and has thus become a "missing link" since his
ministers do not have a real voice. Kikwete noted in August
2008, the Chair of the Organ for Politics and Security will
move to the King of Swaziland.


11. (C) President Kikwete stated that for all SADC leaders,
but Mbeki, "it is extremely difficult to talk to Mugabe." He
expressed his concern that the ongoing intimidation will
prevent people from going to the polls especially in

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Matabeland, where abusers are targeting areas Mugabe did not
perform well in March 2008. He noted that the intimidation
could have a backlash, angering the voters and increasing the
turnout on election day, despite ZANU's
strong-arm tactics. In such a scenario, Morgan Tsvangirai
could win in the June 27 round, "but only if non-Zimbabweans
observe the counting at the polling stations, along with the
party agents, and each person receives a receipt of the
results; then all the numbers should add up."


12. (C) A/S Frazer reiterated that having as many monitors as
possible inside Zimbabwe is the only way to re-assure
Zimbabwe citizens that it is safe to go out and vote. In
addition, monitors and observers must make strong
pronouncements to assure that the GOZ will accept the
results. Kikwete emphasized that the role of the U.S. is to
continue "to shout" and send strong messages. "The people of
Zimbabwe need to express their free will," he
said. "Let Mugabe's forces call us 'Agents of Imperialism'
or whatever they want; the key is that the opposition have
the opportunity to beat them fairly."

Sudan: Abyei and Darfur
--------------

13. (C) A/S Frazer asked Kikwete to give a message to
President Bashir of Sudan that the problem in Abyei must be
resolved. She stressed that Bashir has to allow the flow of
humanitarian assistance. "We are in discussions,
but have only one month to resolve it or the issue
automatically goes to mediation," she explained. "Our
request is that the Government of Sudan (GOS) also accept a
temporary administration for Abyei." She told Kikwete that
Southern Sudan is losing confidence, with more talk of
secession; it is imperative the situation in Abyei be quickly
resolved.


14. (C) Kikwete said that he met Bashir in Japan and was
expecting him to arrive for the Sullivan Summit the next day,
June 4. Kikwete smiled: "Bashir is in a better mood now to
speak with us, based on the success in the
Comoros." Kikwete added he knows Bashir suspects Libya of
supplying the JEM and of Kaddafi wanting to "keep his hand"
in the situation.


15. (C) Kikwete also stressed the Tanzanian Peoples Defense
Force (TPDF) troops are ready to proceed to Darfur: "We are
only waiting for the UNAMID peacekeeping operations'
deployment." He relayed complaints he had heard from other
African states ready to deploy to Darfur that it appears the
UN is focused on PKO in Nepal and Thailand and consequently
"do not have the resources to supply African PKO units."

Uganda: Lord's Resistance Army
--------------

16. (C) A/S Frazer told President Kikwete the LRA is
regrouping with an upswing in kidnappings, fighting, children
and women taken to service the LRA. Also, LRA is making
incursions into the Congo, the CAR and Southern Sudan.
Kikwete observed that Museveni has infiltrated the LRA. He
also believed Kabila is determined to track down the LRA.
Kikwete said he had hosted Kabila and Museveni in Dar es
Salaam in early May to discuss LRA issues and had understood
that the Congolese army and the Ugandan army are still
willing to work together.

Participants
--------------

17. (U) The participants in the June 3, 2008 meeting were:

Government of the United States:
Jendayi Frazer Assistant Secretary of State
for African Affairs
Fatuma Sanneh Assistant to A/S Frazer
Mary Johnson U.S. Embassy Dar es Salaam,
Notetaker

Government of Tanzania:
Jakaya Kikwete President of the United

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Republic of Tanzania
Bernard Membe Minister of Foreign Affairs
and International Cooperation
Amb. Ombeni Sefue Tanzanian Ambassador to the
United States
Notetakers
GREEN