A/S FRAZER'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT ARMANDO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000370

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/S FOR MJWILLS; ALSO AF/E FOR SHAMILTON, JLIDDLE
AF/RSA FOR LMAZEL
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS, LISBON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018
TAGS: PREL KDEM ECON PGOV MZ TZ
SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT ARMANDO
GUEBUZA OF MOZAMBIQUE

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission, T. Mushingi for
reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) During the Leon H. Sullivan Summit in Arusha,
Tanzania, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, Jendayi
Frazer, met with President Armando Guebuza on June 3 to
discuss the MCC compact, the effect of rising oil and food
prices on Mozambique's economy, and how the Government of
Mozambique (GOM) is adjusting to the global economic
situation. President Guebuza and A/S Frazer discussed at
length steps needed to ensure that the June 27 runoff
elections in Zimbabwe are transparent and fair, and allow the
people of Zimbabwe to voice their will. End summary.

MCC, Guebuza's Economic Development Goals
--------------

2. (C) President Guebuza told A/S Frazer he had flown to
Arusha directly from the Tokyo International Conference on
African Development (TICAD). At the development conference,
the focus among African leaders had been rising food prices,
and the advantages and opportunities for economic development
in Africa. While in Japan, the SADC leaders had met on the
margins to discuss plans to deploy SADC monitors to the
second round of Zimbabwe elections, but no agreement was
reached.


3. (SBU) In response to A/S Frazer's inquiry about the
progress of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)
compact, President Guebuza noted the MCC team had requested
some changes be made. Other delays occurred due to
additional reviews of the infrastructure, water and
sanitation projects. However, overall the MCC outlook
appeared to be on track and a positive contribution to
Mozambique's development. He also expressed appreciation
that through the MCA program, his government could obtain two
patrol boats. A/S Frazer said her goal is for the MCC plan
to unfold as quickly as possible in Mozambique. President
Guebuza said with concerns about food supply shortages on the
rise, a key objective for Mozambique is to improve rice
production through better seeds and improved technology. He
mentioned among his other top goals are more technical
education opportunities for youth and increased production in
maize and in cassava. Guebuza noted cassava flour mixed with
wheat, which Mozambique imports, creates a blend that
produces nutritious bread.


4. (SBU) Guebuza explained that he has "an open presidency"
and routinely travels to spend four to five full days in each
district. He listens to complaints and discusses development
strategies with his citizens. Most persons are concerned
about increasing literacy and the number of schools. Also,
the people request improved energy delivery and cellular
phone networks. Guebuza noted that following the riots over
transportation fare increases in Maputo in February 2008, his
government decided to temporarily subsidize fuel prices for
operators of mini-buses. However, the long-term solution
would be to establish a reliable public transportation system
using rail systems or ferries as possible options.


5. (SBU) Mozambique has initiated a plan to increase
investment. Each of the country's 128 districts will receive
USD 300,000. A council of citizens decides how the money
will be spent, in line with the overarching objective to
create more jobs related to food production. President
Guebuza believed having the people involved ensures that the
investment program will be successful.

Returnees/Refugees from South African Anti-Foreigner Riots
-------------- --------------

6. (C) President Guebuza said that the riots against
foreigners in South Africa have driven 39,000 Mozambicans
back home to Maputo and other cities. Many have returned by
boat; most have left everything behind. This sudden influx
of now unemployed workers has created an extremely difficult
situation for many families as well for the GOM. Guebuza has
spoken to President Mbeki who promised the situation in South

DAR ES SAL 00000370 002 OF 003


Africa is under control and improving; attacks against
foreigners will not be tolerated.


7. (C) He told A/S Frazer that Mozambique stands ready to
participate in more peace keeping missions, if resources are
available. A/S Frazer said that the State Department's
African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance
(ACOTA) programs are presently assisting several African
countries to get ready to deploy to Darfur. President
Guebuza said that shortly after the Sullivan Summit, he will
be headed to the United States to attend a conference on HIV
and AIDs. During this trip, he plans to consult with United
Nations officials about peace keeping operations (PKO).

Zimbabwe Elections
--------------

8. (SBU) President Guebuza expressed his deep concern about
the violence in Zimbabwe during the lead up to the June 27
runoff elections. He understood that President Mbeki was
sending a team to ascertain why this violence continues.
Guebuza noted he heard talk in Tokyo of a unity government
for Zimbabwe, but did not know if the Zimbabwe constitution
would provide for such a structure: "It is Zimbabwe's law, so
they must decide." A/S Frazer said she had an ominous
feeling about the situation in Zimbabwe. She noted that on
June 2, Mugabe's government arrested and put Arthur
Mutambara, the MDC Deputy in jail. In her view, Mugabe has
now crossed a line that merits a strong response from all
concerned, including SADC and the AU. If there is no strong
response or condemnation, Mugabe's government will go further
in its intimidation. (Note: Two days later, Morgan
Tsvangirai was detained and later in the week, Tendai Biti
was arrested and charged with treason. End note.)


9. (C) A/S Frazer told Guebuza that the arrest of Mutambara
highlights the urgency of the United States' concern that MDC
candidate Morgan Tsvangirai and other MDC leaders need
protection. She stressed that the SADC leaders must ask
President Mugabe to guarantee such protection. In addition,
large numbers of SADC or AU monitors need to be mobilized and
allowed entry into Zimbabwe as early as possible. The
monitors should deploy throughout Zimbabwe, especially in the
rural areas, and be working night and day. A/S Frazer told
Guebuza the White House issued a statement June 2 condemning
the arrest and detention of Arthur Mutambara. She also
explained that Mugabe has a Joint Operations Command of
intelligence, police and military who are loyal and ready to
ensure by any means that he gets reelected.


10. (C) A/S Frazer emphasized that Morgan Tsvangirai has been
absolutely clear: if he were elected, he would not seek to
bring charges or retaliate against Mugabe. However, she
noted if the violence against opposition parties continues
unabated "it is possible Tsvangirai could change his mind."
She stressed the opposition has been beaten, but not
responded with violence; thus the U.S does not want to be
complicit in sanctioning Mugabe's attempt to win by violence
and intimidation. Election monitors are the key.


11. (C) Both A/S Frazer and Guebuza agreed the situation in
Zimbabwe is complex. She confirmed that our U.S. Ambassador
in Harare and his staff, continue to reach out on all levels,
speaking to citizens and visiting many regions of the
country. Mugabe, on the other hand, is not reaching out at
all, and MDC members continue to be openly beaten by members
of the Joint Operations Command, especially the police. A/S
said if there are enough trained observers, then they can
report violence or other human rights violations.


12. (C) A/S Frazer told Guebuza the United States believes
the people of Zimbabwe are fed up and ready to vote Mugabe
out, if the international community can assure the elections
would be free and fair. While the U.S. could support
monitoring missions financially, SADC and the African Union
would have to take the lead.


13. (C) If Mugabe steps down or loses and concedes, he has
been told privately until now that he could live out his

DAR ES SAL 00000370 003 OF 003


years "honorably" i Zimbabwe. However, A/S Frazer warned if
he continues using violence against or even killing
opposition leaders and members, then the situation would
change and he could be pursued. Guebuza insisted that the
situation in Zimbabwe should still be regarded with at least
some hope. He alluded to talks taking place between MDC and
ZANU-PF according to the South Africans. A/S Frazer closed
by noting that she had spoken with President dos Santos of
Angola who agreed to send the message to Mugabe that there
has to be many observers in place before the June 27
elections: in the rural areas, at the rallies, everywhere.

Participants
--------------

14. (U) The participants in the June 3 meeting in Arusha,
Tanzania were:

Government of the United States:
Hon. Jendayi Frazer, Assistant Secretary of State
for African Affairs
Fatuma Sanneh, Assistant to A/S Frazer
Mary Johnson, US Embassy Dar es Salaam, notetaker

Government of Mozambique:
Hon. Armando Emilio Guebuza, President of Mozambique
Personal Staff Assistants, notetakers


15. (U) This cable was cleared by Assistant Secretary Frazer.
GREEN