ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER DISCUSSES ANJOUAN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 000368

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR SHILL, AF/E FOR JLIDDLE
ALSO AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK
ADDIS FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM AU ZI TZ
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER DISCUSSES ANJOUAN AND
ZIMBABWE RUNOFF ELECTIONS WITH TANZANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER
MEMBE

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission, T. Mushingi
for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) On June 3, Tanzania's Minister of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation, Bernard Membe, discussed with
Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazer, next
steps to hold accountable Comoran rebel Mohamed Bacar and
strategies to prepare for the June 27 runoff election in
Zimbabwe. Membe said President Kikwete is quietly exploring
if the African Union (AU) court would be willing to try Bacar
in Arusha. Membe relayed in detail a SADC meeting at the
TICAD in Japan, where President Mbeki of South Africa and
Zimbabwe's Foreign Minster succeeded to stall SADC's plans to
deploy election monitors to Zimbabwe. A/S Frazer stated that
the June 2 arrest of Arthur Mutambara was an indication that
Mugabe and his forces have "crossed a line" and that the
conditions for free and fair elections are not in place. She
stressed that the U.S. has and will continue to make strong
statements, but the African Union (AU) must also stand up,
take a public stance and, most importantly, send as many
monitors as possible to oversee the June 27 runoff elections.
End summary.

Anjouan
--------------

2. (C) While Minister Membe said Tanzania considers the
successful restoration of legitimate rule to Anjouan to be
"history," the question of how to administer justice to Col.
Mohamed Bacar remains. President Kikwete has been quietly
exploring the possibility that Col. Bacar be brought to
Arusha and tried in the African Union (AU) court. Membe said
the French Ambassador to Tanzania told him all requests for
asylum in France or a French territory would be denied.
However, the French are resisting Bacar's return to Comoros
because they do not believe he would get a fair trial in
Moroni. According to Membe, if the AU court would be willing
to take Bacar's case, President Sambi of Comoros could agree.
However, Sambi in turn, does not trust the French
government. Thus, President Kikwete continues to explore the
possibility of a trial at the AU court.


3. (SBU) Membe confirmed June 15 is the date set for
elections in Anjouan and training of Comoran police and
military authorities continues. Membe raised a cautionary
note, namely that while the ballot boxes are ready, the
ballots need to be reprinted with the correct date. This
could delay the elections slightly, with June 30 as the
fall-back election date. A/S Frazer remarked that the U.S.
preferred that Anjouan elections to be held as soon as
possible so that Comoros can qualify for African Growth and
Opportunity Act (AGOA) eligibility.

Zimbabwe
--------------

4. (C) Minister Membe said he and President Kikwete were
extremely concerned at the level of violence Mugabe has
unleashed against the opposition. South Africa and Zimbabwe
have succeeded thus far to divide and paralyze SADC so that
to date no decision has been made about deploying election
monitors. Membe said Tsvangirai and other MDC leaders have
no protection; there is ample evidence of the continuing
violence from witnesses, NGO groups, and injured persons in
hospitals. He noted the Tanzanian envoy to Harare had
visited hospitals and met victims along with U.S. and British
diplomats, thus provoking Mugabe to brand Tanzania as
"puppets of the Americans." At the last SADC meeting in
Mauritius, the Zimbabwe representative refused to speak to
Kikwete.

"Chaotic" SADC meeting in Japan
--------------

5. (C) Membe reported SADC is sharply divided over Zimbabwe.
In Japan on May 28 at the margins of the TICAD meeting, SADC
leaders tried to hold a strategy session on election monitor
preparation, but the meeting broke up in confusion with no

DAR ES SAL 00000368 002 OF 004


resolution, a rare occurrence in SADC. President Mwanawasa
of Zambia was the Chair, but President Mbeki and the Foreign
Minister of Zimbabwe constantly interrupted him and would not
let the discussion on election monitors proceed. Mbeki
insisted: "Why does this group need to see the report? This
matter should be handled by the SADC Organ on Defence, Peace
and Security." The Organ is a troika of three countries:
Angola as chair, Tanzania and Swaziland. However, President
dos Santos of Angola, who is in poor health, Membe said, was
not in Tokyo. Mbeki kept asking for justification of why the
leaders needed to see the report. There was no cooperation
and Mbeki refused to let the Zimbabwe monitoring issue be
raised, Mwanawasa as Chair was harassed by Mbeki and unable
to make any progress.


6. (C) A/S Frazer emphasized to Minister Membe that well
before June 27, monitors should be in place so the SADC must
decide now how many monitors to send. Membe explained that
within SADC, South Africa and Namibia are solidly supporting
Zimbabwe's position; Angola, Swaziland and Mozambique are
vacillating; while Zambia, Botswana and Tanzania solidly
support deploying monitors and creating the atmosphere for
free and fair election in Zimbabwe. The Congo DRC
representatives listen, but rarely take the floor, acting
more like observers.


7. (C) As a result of the nearly chaotic meeting in Tokyo,
Membe confided the SADC plan to send as many monitors as
possible is breaking down. A/S Frazer said in that case, the
African Union (AU) must assert itself, take action and send
monitors. Otherwise the outcome of this runoff election will
be determined by the violence and intimidation of Mugabe's
forces. The victory will go to Mugabe, which could likely
trigger another crisis. A/S Frazer and Membe discussed that
unless a significant number of monitors are in place, Mugabe
would still have the upper hand. For example, if there are
only 200 observers inside the country, the Mugabe forces
could block them from deploying to key rural regions. Having
a large number of monitors is critical, A/S Frazer insisted,
and the AU nations need to step up to this task.


8. (C) A/S Frazer was emphatic that if there are no monitors
in Zimbabwe, the election cannot be free and fair. While
there has been some discussions about a coalition or unity
government with a first winner and a second winner, in truth,
there is no common agreement on a process for such a
government. Who would head it ? Who would control it ? How
could Zimbabwe be governed under such an agreement? A/S
Frazer told Minister Membe she is convinced the conditions
are not there to establish a unity government. Membe
commented that it appears all possible paths forward "are
leading to a quagmire."


9. (C) A/S Frazer stressed that the arrest of Arthur
Mutambara on June 2 merely because he had placed an op-ed in
the newspaper criticizing Mugabe was unacceptable. Mugabe's
forces are striking at the MDC party at every level and
appear not to be afraid of anyone or anything. Mutambara's
arrest and detention is blatant and cannot be ignored. A/S
Frazer told Membe that in her view, the June 27 runoff is
merely an attempt to steal the election. In addition,
President Mbeki is protecting Mugabe, serving as his shield.
She also confirmed that Mugabe has threatened to expel our
U.S. envoy.


10. (C) A/S Frazer told Minister Membe that Mbeki had sent
President Bush and the British a ten-page letter, filled with
racial undertones, stating that the "West should stay out of
Zimbabwe's affairs; it is none of your business." Although
he wrote the letter as the President of South Africa, he
legitimizes his positions by speaking as the SADC
facilitator. She remarked: "How can he describe Zimbabwe as
a country where the West should not be allowed to help
Zimbabweans? When South Africa was under apartheid, it was
appealing to the entire world for help."

SADC, AU Must Not Be Intimidated

DAR ES SAL 00000368 003 OF 004


--------------

11. (C) A/S Frazer was adamant that SADC, the AU and the
international community must not be intimidated. In
particular, the African Union must assert itself and say:
"No more!", even though it puts President Kikwete in a
delicate situation. She relayed that when Mbeki was working
with ECOWAS to resolve the situation in Cote d'Ivoire, he was
ineffective and too close to Gbagbo, so ECOWAS basically
dismissed him. SADC or the AU needs to consider taking the
Zimbabwe facilitation out of Mbeki's hands. Pressure needs
to be brought against Mugabe; otherwise even if the elections
were postponed, as President dos Santos of Angola has
suggested, it would only be postponing the crisis; Membe
agreed.


12. (C) A/S Frazer suggested that a conversation must be
initiated with the moderate security forces in Zimbabwe and
an appeal made to moderates within the ZANU-PF, encouraging
them to move away from Mugabe. She said that President Mbeki
is too legalistic, and constantly tries to defend Mugabe.
Membe noted that Mbeki is frustrated with the ANC, where he
has no support, and frustrated as well with the domestic
situation in South Africa.


13. (C) Membe said President Kikwete is concerned about the
safety of Morgan Tsvangirai. Any attempt to hurt or, worse
yet, to kill him could cause a civil war which in turn would
create a situation for the military to take over. Kikwete
and he are well aware that after such a war, the military
would finally control the country, and could well install
Mugabe as the "father of the country." A/S Frazer stressed
that Mugabe is testing us all: "The arrest of Mutambara
crossed a line; our response needs to be coordinated and
strong." A/S Frazer added that Mugabe's wife had made a
statement that win or lose he would not leave and intends to
be president for life. "I am sure this accurately reflects
the whims of Mugabe himself," she said.


14. (C) Membe urged that the U.S. continue to send strong
messages. "If the international community continues to speak
out, to create space, that will allow the African nations to
move," he stated. A/F Frazer replied that Mugabe clearly is
clinging desperately to power: "At this juncture, someone
could give Mugabe assurances that if he steps down now, he
will not be charged with any crime. However, if he were to
threaten the life or hurt the opposition leaders, then the
situation would change; at that stage perhaps an intervention
would be warranted."


15. (C) Minister Membe stressed that pressure from the
international community is critical at this juncture. He
reiterated that the AU members had deeply appreciated the
"silent support" of the United States during the Comoros
crisis: "It strengthened our hand, your silent support, so we
were confident to succeed." Membe asked that we create a
situation now where Mugabe will feel intense pressure:
"Create a credible threat and we will take advantage of that
threat to execute our decisions. I can assure you that at
least 85 percent of AU members are tired of Mugabe being in
power," he concluded.

Participants
--------------

16. (U) The participants in the June 3 meeting in Arusha,
Tanzania were:

Government of the United States:
Hon. Jendayi E. Frazer, Assistant Secretary of State
for African Affairs
Fatuma Sanneh, Assistant to A/S Frazer
Mary Johnson, US Embassy Dar es Salaam, notetaker

Government of Tanzania:
Hon. Bernard Membe, Minister of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation
Amb. Ombeni Sefue, Tanzanian Ambassador to the
United States

DAR ES SAL 00000368 004 OF 004


Notetakers


17. (U) This cable was cleared by Assistant Secretary Frazer.
GREEN