TANZANIA: MINISTER MEMBE BRIEFS AMBASSADOR GREEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000206

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/E FOR JKNIGHT, JLIDDLE
AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK
ADDIS FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018
TAGS: KDEM MOPS PREL PHUM ZI TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA: MINISTER MEMBE BRIEFS AMBASSADOR GREEN
ON COMOROS PLANS, ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS

REF: STATE 032645

Classified By: Ambassador M. Green for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) The Minister of Foreign Affairs and International
Cooperation, Bernard Membe, confirmed to Ambassador Green
that the Tanzanian forces that assisted with the invasion of
Anjouan will stay in Comoros through the elections and likely
longer to maintain peace and train Anjouan gendarmes to
prepare for integration into the Comoran army. While
expressing his strong appreciation that the United States
supported the African Union (AU) action to oust Col. Mohamed
Bacar, Minister Membe stated that humanitarian aid will
likely be needed for the Anjouan islanders "who appear to be
in need of many basic necessities." He described mopping up
operations as going well, with all but 47 militia out of the
350 armed militia who had been protecting Bacar, accounted
for, and over 1,500 weapons turned in. Membe was unable to
respond to Ambassador Green's request to outline and give a
timeline for how the U.S. can assist from here forward. He
said a high-level meeting would be held between the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and the Chief of Defense of the
Tanzanian Peoples Defense Force (TPDF) the evening of April 1
to discuss these details, and promised to give the Ambassador
a full report on April 2. Minister Membe did not have
current information on whether or not Tanzania's two to three
landing craft were already in the Comoros.


2. (C) Membe confided that for the past two days, President
Kikwete has been focused on Zimbabwe, reaching out to South
African President Mbeki and to PM Gordon Brown of the United
Kingdom. Membe has spoken to the foreign ministers of South
Africa, Zambia, and Mozambique to discuss that the AU and
SADC should not rush to recognize whatever government may be
installed in Zimbabwe until the facts about election
tabulations are clear. Membe mentioned the possibility of
calling a SADC emergency meeting should the Zimbabwe results
indicate that the election was not fair. The delay in an
announcement by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is
increasing tensions in Harare. He noted that opposition
party members met with the Tanzanian Ambassador in Harare on
March 31 asking him to convey to President Kikwete as the AU
Chairman that the elections were being manipulated and the AU
should intervene. End summary.

Comoros
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3. (C) Ambassador Green told Minister Membe that the United
States was ready to assist Tanzania in the aftermath of the
Anjouan invasion, but "we need to have clear lines of
communication on a day to day basis." Membe apologized that
he had not kept the Ambassador fully informed, but events had
moved very quickly. Membe apparently believes that the U.S.
will be able to reimburse Tanzania for some of the cost of
moving assets to Anjouan during the initial March 24-25
operation. Going forward, Membe had understood from his
phone conversation with A/S Jendayi Frazer that the United
States would be able to assist with the large ship that could
transport two to three Tanzanian landing craft. However,
Membe was not able to confirm (even after requesting his
assistant to contact the TPDF directly) whether the landing
craft had already been moved to Comoros or were still in
Tanzania. He said his staff would meet with top TPDF
leadership the evening of April 1, and a full report,
including the logistics needed from the USG, would result
from that meeting.


4. (C) Membe recounted that President Kikwete deeply
appreciated the United States' support and strong leadership
within the P-5 so that the AU's intended intervention in
Comoros did not have to go to the UN Security Council. He
downplayed the efforts of South Africa to block the invasion,
stating that "now that it has gone well, the South Africans

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are commending that the exercise was well executed." In
Anjouan, the Tanzanian, Sudanese and Comoran forces have
taken into custody 278 of the 350 militia who had defended
Bacar Fifteen of the militia had fled to Mayotte with Bacar,
and 9 to 10 others appeared to have perished in a car burning
in one village; 47 remain unaccounted for. He also noted
that a total of 1,562 weapons along with ammunition have been
turned into the Tanzanian, Sudanese and Comoran headquarters
by the Anjouan police and gendarmes without any fatalities.


5. (C) According to Membe, the French have moved Bacar to
Reunion "for his own safety" while a Mayotte court considers
Bacar's asylum request since there have been demonstrations
against him in Mayotte, Anjouan and Moroni. Membe expressed
his frustration at not getting what he believed to be a
straight story from the Government of France (GOF),
recounting several instances including a helicopter crash
near Bacar's village on Anjouan, and the fact that weapons
found in Bacar's home had "Embassy of France Moroni" stamped
on them. He also had learned that the Government of Comoros
had put out a warrant for Bacar's arrest and forwarded it to
the GOF, but his most recent letter from the French "remains
silent about this warrant." Minister Membe was not sanguine
that the question of "what to do with Bacar will be easily
solved. He noted that even if Bacar went to a country or
territory not under the control of France, extradition laws
could apply.

Foreign Ministry not in the logistics loop
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6. (C) Ambassador Green pressed for details from the
Minister on when and where a ship would be needed to move the
landing craft per the GOT request. The Ambassador explained
that one window of opportunity was open within the next 24
hours; otherwise the operation could not commence until April

12. Membe asked his assistant twice to make a call to the
TPDF and get the information Ambassador Green was requesting,
but the only reply he received was that a meeting would be
held later in the evening. While Membe understood that the
landing craft in question were still in Tanzania, the
Embassy's Defense Attache Office had heard directly from TPDF
Chief of Operations and Logistics on March 31 that USG
assistance was needed to bring two landing craft back to
Tanzania from Anjouan.


7. (C) Membe was clear that the Tanzanians are in Comoros
for the long term, at the very minimum through the elections
that are required by law to held within the next 90 days.
Furthermore, the Tanzanian troops will stay for whatever time
frame is needed to train the Anjouan police and gendarmes and
to assure their integration into the Comoran army. In
response to Ambassador Green's inquiry, Membe admitted that
Tanzania would likely look to the U.S. for assistance not
only for the short-term movements of the landing craft, but
throughout the period of transition to a better form of
democracy in the Comoros. He believed that the constitution
of Comoros needs to be closely examined to ensure long-term
viability, and noted that the AU Parliament and its advisors
stand ready to assist. "To have a country with three
presidents is just not possible," he emphasized. Membe also
noted that ballot boxes for the elections are already in
Comoros, but robust support from the international community
is needed for observers, election training, and adequate
training for the police.

Comment
--------------

8. (C) Clearly, neither Minister Membe not his MFA staff had
been kept fully informed about details of military logistics
in the Anjouan incursion, and thus were unable to answer the
Ambassador's inquiries. His focus for the last week appears
have been on ascertaining whether the GOT is getting the full
story from the French government concerning its position
toward Bacar. He mentioned that he had spoken to the French
Ambassador nearly every day during the past two weeks, either

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by phone or in person. It was also clear that Tanzania is
going to be in the Comoros for the long haul; while Membe
mentioned that up to half of the Tanzanian forces could
return home, many will stay until a "stable democracy" is in
place in Anjouan and the Comoros.

Zimbabwe
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9. (SBU) In response to reftel points, Minister Membe
assured the Ambassador that President Kikwete is closely
monitoring the situation in Zimbabwe, both as the AU Chairman
and from Tanzania's key position in SADC. Kikwete contacted
President Mbeki, and had spoken on March 31 to PM Gordon
Brown. Membe himself reached out to his SADC counterparts to
urge caution before making any statement, once an election
outcome is announced in Zimbabwe.


10. (C) Membe repeated several times that the reports coming
to the GOT indicate that situation in Harare is very tense.
He had heard that Tsvangirai has a slight lead over Robert
Mugabe and that Makoni has received about five percent of the
vote. The GOT is extremely concerned about retaliation
against Makoni since his break-away from the mainstream ZANU
party could be the factor that pushes Tsvangirai over the
top. Also Tanzania is concerned that the longer an
announcement of the presidential winner is delayed, it
increases the possibility of vote tampering as well as
allowing tensions to rise.


11. (C) Membe's best estimate is that the results
announcement would be made at night "since large crowds are
less likely to gather in the darkness." The GOT is also
concerned with Mugabe's recent statements that he would hand
the government to the military before he would accept an
opposition victory. However, Membe admitted that there is a
slight chance that Mugabe could concede victory or offer a
position in the government to the opposition candidates.
Ambassador and Minister Membe agreed to keep in close contact
on Zimbabwe as well, and cooperate to protect the human
rights of the candidates as well as of all Zimbabwean
citizens.
GREEN