2008 UN DROUGHT APPEAL FOR SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000847

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/I, PRM/ANE, IO
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USAID, BAGHDAD PLEASE PASS TO PRT
MOSUL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018
TAGS: EAGR EAID ECON FAO PGOV PHUM PREF SY
SUBJECT: 2008 UN DROUGHT APPEAL FOR SYRIA

Classified By: CDA Maura Connelly for reasons 1.5 b and d.


1. (SBU) This is an action request cable, see paragraph 7.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: UNFAO (Food and Agriculture) Syria
Representative Abdullah Bin Yehia is seeking USG commitment
to the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
2008 Drought Appeal. Yehia proposes to use money from the
appeal to provide seed and technical assistance to 15,000
small-holding farmers in northeast Syria in an effort to
preserve the social and economic fabric of this rural,
agricultural community. If UNFAO efforts fail, Yehia
predicts mass migration from the northeast, which could act
as a multiplier on social and economic pressures already at
play and undermine stability Syria. End Summary.

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SYRIAN DROUGHT APPEAL - IN SHORT
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3. (SBU) The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) launched an appeal on September 29 requesting
roughly $20.23 million to assist an estimated one million
people impacted by what the UN describes as the country's
worst drought in four decades. The appeal details seven
major projects that members of the UN country team (FAO,
UNDP, WFP, WHO and UNICEF) plan to undertake should funding
materialize. Roughly $14 million is requested to support FAO
($9.36 million) and UNDP ($4.82 million) efforts to restore
food production and safeguard agricultural livelihoods, and
$5.2 million is being sought by WFP to provide emergency food
assistance to the victims of the drought. There does not
appear to have been much movement on the part of donor
countries to fund this appeal thus far, as most of the
funding has come from unearmarked UN funds and the Central
Emergency Response Fund (CERF) equaling together roughly
$2.46 million. The Italians have an uncommitted pledge of
$700 thousand for food assistance. Additionally, UN contacts
report the Chinese have committed to providing approximately
$500,000, and that the Greeks are considering a contribution
of up to $250,000.

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FAO PERSPECTIVE
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4. (SBU) UNFAO Syria Representative Abdullah bin Yehia
briefed econoff and USDA Regional Minister-Counselor for
Agriculture on what he terms the "perfect storm," a
confluence of drought conditions with other economic and
social pressures that Yehia believes could undermine
stability in Syria. Because he is working with such limited
resources, Yehia plans to target FAO assistance to
small-holding farmers in the hardest-hit province of
northeast Syria, Al Hasakah. (Note: This province shares a
northern border with Turkey and a southern border with Iraq.
Mosul is approximately 100km from Al Hasakah province.)
Because the UN appeal has, thus far, not been entirely
successful, Yehia has had to prioritize aid recipients. FAO
has about $1.25 million out of the $9.36 million sought to
begin programmatic work. For now, FAO aid will be awarded
only to farmers who meet all of the following criteria:
Applicant is head of household, has a holding of no more than
two hectares, reports agriculture as the sole source of
livelihood, holds no more than seven or eight head of
livestock, had a "zero" crop yield for 2008, and has no seed
stock for replanting a 2009 crop.

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POTENTIAL FOR SOCIAL DESTRUCTION AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY
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5. (C) Yehia does not/not believe that the SARG will allow
any Syrian citizen to starve. (Note: It is estimated that
SARG wheat stocks are sufficient to continue to provide
subsidized bread in all areas of Syria throughout the coming
winter. End note.) However, Yehia told us that the Syrian
Minister of Agriculture, at a July meeting with UN officials,
stated publicly that economic and social fallout from the
drought was "beyond our capacity as a country to deal with."

DAMASCUS 00000847 002 OF 002


What the UN is trying to combat through this appeal, Yehia
says, is the potential for "social destruction" that would
accompany erosion of the agricultural industry in rural
Syria. This social destruction would lead to political
instability, Yehia told us. He fears that up to 15,000 rural
farmers will fail to plant crops for the 2009 growing season,
either because they have no residual seed stock from the
disastrous 2008 crop, or because they are hesitant to plant
seed (bought on credit) for fear of a repeat of the 2007-2008
cold snap that killed seedlings last year. Another factor at
play, according to Yehia, is the rising cost of diesel fuel
in Syria, as the SARG continues to reduce subsidies. This
translates into rising production costs, providing an
additional disincentive for small farmers to maintain their
holdings. UNFAO proposes to provide small-holding farmers in
Al Hasakah province who meet the above criteria (see
paragraph 4) with seed stock and technical assistance so that
they might realize a 2009 crop and remain on their farms for
the foreseeable future.


6. (C) Without direct FAO assistance, Yehia predicts that
most of these 15,000 small-holding farmers would be forced to
depart Al Hasakah province to seek work in larger cities in
western Syria (Damascus and Aleppo, primarily).
Approximately 100,000 dependents -- women, children and the
elderly or infirm -- would be left behind to live in poverty,
he said. Children would be likely to be pulled from school,
he warned, in order to seek a source of income for families
left behind. In addition, the migration of 15,000 unskilled
laborers would add to the social and economic pressures
presently at play in major Syrian cities. A system already
burdened by a large Iraqi refugee population may not be able
to absorb another influx of displaced persons, Yehia
explained, particularly at this time of rising costs, growing
dissatisfaction of the middle class, and a perceived
weakening of the social fabric and security structures that
Syrians have come to expect and - in some cases - rely on.


7. (SBU) ACTION REQUEST: Post received several queries as to
whether the U.S. intends to contribute to the 2008 Syrian
Drought Appeal, and we request department guidance on the
matter. UNFAO is seeking immediate donor commitments that
will allow them to borrow against the UN CERF. According to
Yehia, UNFAO is trying to get seed stock to farmers in Al
Hasakah by mid-December to ensure that they do not miss the
window for planting a 2009 crop.


8. (C) COMMENT: Given the generous funding the U.S. currently
provides to the Iraqi refugee community in Syria and the
persistent problems WFP is experiencing with its efforts to
import food for the refugee population, we question whether
limited USG resources should be directed toward this appeal
at this time.
CONNELLY