GUINEA BISSAU:TENSIONS RISING - ELECTIONS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000641

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AA, INL/AAE
ACCRA FOR USAID/WA
PARIS FOR POL D'ELIA AND DEA HOUSTON
LAGOS FOR DEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR KCRM PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA BISSAU:TENSIONS RISING - ELECTIONS IN
QUESTION

Classified By: Charge Jay T. Smith for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) President Vieira signed a law granting an extended
mandate to the National Popular Assembly (ANP) and the
Government under pressure from the military. Such military
involvement in politics is growing and raising alarms among
neighboring countries. Elections scheduled for November are
far from financed and GOGB insistence on costly and
logistically challenging biometric registration may mean a
delay or cancellation. Security sector reform moves forward
under EU leadership now that a partial census has been
completed but the Judicial Police operations remain
shuttered. The GOGB's "show me the money" attitude is
hampering democratic development. End summary.

TENSIONS RISING
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2. (U) President Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira signed into law
an extension of the ANP's mandate until such time as new
legislative elections are held. The law was initiated by the
ANP to grant it and the Government legitimacy because their
mandate ended in April. Legislative elections should have
taken place in spring 2008 but lack of organization and
funding has pushed the date back to November. Now the law
must go to the Supreme Court to determine its
constitutionality. The President of the Association of
Guinean Judges, Ansumane Sanha, told the press judges were
receiving death threats in an effort to influence the
upcoming hearing.


3. (C) According to the press and Representative of the UN
Secretary General Shola Omoregie (protect),Vieira was
compelled to sign the law by Armed Forces Chief of Staff
General Batista Tagme Na Waie. Tagme or his close advisors
communicated to Vieira in the days before his April 22 visit
to the Gambia that if he did not sign the legislation the
Armed Forces would foment riots in his absence then declare
martial law to keep the peace.


4. (C) Even before this episode, Economic Community of West
African States (ECOWAS) members were concerned about Tagme's
manipulation by political actors and his increasingly
high-profile role in politics. In early March, ECOWAS
delegates from Nigeria and Burkina Faso traveled to Bissau to
ask Tagme to lower his political profile, according to
Aphonso Te (protect),a businessman and ex-military officer
familiar with the exchange.

ELECTIONS
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5. (U) Legislative elections have been set by President
Vieira for November 16. An inter-ministerial commission has
decided on biometric registration, according to UN
Development Program (UNDP) chief Josepina Mazza, because it
will reduce fraud. The UNDP supports the GOGB's decision to
go with biometric registration even though no sufficient
funding or donated equipment has yet been identified to carry
it out. With a price tag around USD 7 million, only USD
600,000 has been donated so far from the European Union. The
UN Peace Building Commission is expected to contribute an
additional USD 1.3 million and bilateral donors may still
make contributions as well, however all indications are that
Guinea-Bissau will fall far short of the mark.


6. (U) The decision to use biometrics ) regardless of the
inability to pay for it ) has caused some civil society
members to raise concerns that equipment would be unreliable
during the rainy season in remote villages with poor access
to electricity. Undaunted by these logistical problems,
Prime Minister Martinho N'Dafa Cabi told members of the
diplomatic corps that biometric registration should begin
July 1.

MILITARY CENSUS COMPLETED
--------------

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7. (U) UNDP conducted Guinea-Bissau's first-ever census of
men and women in the military. UNDP Director Mazza told
Poloff there were approximately 4,500 members (Note: the
official report has not been made available yet and she did
not have the exact number at her fingertips). The number was
a bit lower than previous estimates by the Armed Forces but
Mazza said the number is not as worrying as the structure.
Most of those soldiers are officers, giving the military an
inverted organizational structure from the way it should be
to operate effectively. Most high-level officers told UNDP
researchers they would not retire without a guaranteed
pension.


8. (U) Colonel Joao Cuoto, Armed Forces Advisor for the
European Union's Security Sector Reform technical team told
Poloff a second census would be started this summer to count
the number of "antigas competentes," the men who fought for
Guinea-Bissau's independence from Portugal in the early
1970s. Antigas competentes were never properly demobilized
and in many cases still have weapons and know how to use
them. Col. Cuoto said that any security sector reform effort
must incorporate them if it is to effectively reduce the risk
of future instability. The EU team's reform plan calls for
no more than 2,500 soldiers, significant training and
equipment, and a consolidation of the number of police and
state security forces.

JUDICIAL POLICE NOT WORKING
--------------


9. (U) Minister of Defense Carmelita Pires told Poloff the
Judicial Police, which have responsibility for investigating
drug trafficking, terrorism, and other transnational crime,
will not return to work until the "minimum conditions" have
been met for them to operate. Pires announced the work
stoppage last month after a policeman was hauled from
protective custody out of Judicial Police (JP) HQ, then
tortured and killed by the Rapid Reaction squad of the Public
Order Police (POP). The POP officers were reacting to the
killing of one of their own by the JP officer who
accidentally shot his friend after a night of drinking.


10. (U) When pressed on what constituted "minimum conditions"
Pires indicated the international community and bilateral
donors had obligations to provide material and training to
the JP. Part of that expectation may be based on the
elaborate plans underway to shore up Guinea-Bissau's
counter-drug efforts spearheaded by the UN Office of Drugs
and Crime (UNODC). The UNODC project has raised some funds
for its anti-drug trafficking and judicial sector reform
program including material, training, and new headquarters
for the JP but the program has not yet started on the ground
in Bissau. Pires told Poloff that of all the donors who
promised to support the UNODC project at the donor's
conference in Lisbon last December, only the United States
has not provided its contribution (USD 150,000 from INCLE
pipeline).

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) With the hard-headed insistence on biometric voter
registration despite lack of funds, infrastructure or time,
it appears the GOGB is planning to fail. Letting elections
slip beyond November would serve the current government,
which is comprised of the three major political parties, as
well as the ANP. Only Vieira and a few outsiders like Party
for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC)
leader Carlos Gomes Jr. and PAIGC contender Malam Bacai Sanha
would like to see elections come sooner. If the Supreme
Court provides legitimacy to the ANP's self-serving extension
of mandate, there will be little pressure from any quarter )
save the international community ) to hold elections in
November. What pressure there is may matter little if Tagme
and the military are not pro-election.


12. (C) The refusal to stage low-cost elections and also to
allow the Judicial Police to stop work indicates the GOGB is
willing to hold what should be its own national interests )

DAKAR 00000641 003 OF 003


i.e. democratic institutions and public security ) hostage
to wrangle cash from international donors.

Visit Embassy Dakar's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.
SMITH