Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08DAKAR1401
2008-12-08 10:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

SENEGAL: FORMER PRIME MINISTER MACKY SALL

Tags:  PGOV PINS SOCI ECON PINR KDEM SG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0694
OO RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #1401/01 3431047
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 081047Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1532
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 001401 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI ECON PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: FORMER PRIME MINISTER MACKY SALL
PREPARING TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

Classified By:
CLASSIFIED BY DCM JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 001401

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI ECON PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: FORMER PRIME MINISTER MACKY SALL
PREPARING TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

Classified By:
CLASSIFIED BY DCM JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: On December 3 Political Counselor and PolOff
met with the recently ousted president of the National
Assembly, Macky Sall. The previous day Sall announced the
creation of a new political party: the Alliance for the
Republic Yakaar - APR Yakaar (Yakaar means hope in Wolof).
Sall said that he did not hold a grudge against President
Abdoulaye Wade, laying the blame for his demise squarely at
the feet of the president's son Karim and other members of
the president's inner circle. He expressed concern for what
he views as the weakening of Senegal's democracy, eroding
separation of powers, and the ineffectual National Assembly
in particular. End summary.


2. (C) In a wide-ranging discussion, Sall told Poloffs that
he harbored no personal ill will against President Wade,
adding that he knew as early as March 2007 that his days were
numbered but that he had decided at the time to play the game
until the very end: "I was prime minister and the number two
of the PDS (The ruling Senegalese Democratic Party); the
knives were out for me as soon as the elections were over. I
knew that. However, what was done to me, many people found
unjust. This martyrisation (his word) that I went through
has really created strong grassroots support for me. I count
among supporters my home region of Fatick and I have support
in the north where my parents are from. As for President
Wade, I am not going to attack him personally since my fight
in 2012 is not going to be against him, as I doubt he will be
a candidate in the Presidential elections." In reply to a
question about whether he expects to be harassed and perhaps
even jailed like his predecessor Seck, he said that in
African politics everything, including being assassinated,
was possible and that he would not be surprised if bogus
allegations against him surfaced. Nevertheless, he insisted

that he was prepared to confront whatever happens and that he
would not be deterred.

Sall's New Party to Contest Local Elections...
-------------- -


3. (C) Macky Sall told PolOffs that while he is not
interested in running personally in the upcoming local
elections because he has already been a mayor, his party will
contest the elections, which are scheduled for March 2009, if
they take place. However, like many observers here, Sall
believes that President Wade will find a way to postpone
those elections.

4. (C) According to Sall: "The PDS is fractured and things
have deteriorated since February 2007. (Wade) knows that, if
he competes today, the PDS will lose heavily, especially in
areas where they fared poorly in (last year's) Presidential
elections. As for my party, I am in the process of printing
membership cards to see how large my support is. We have
already printed 100,000 cards which we will send to our
supporters abroad. I will then print some 300,000 more and
hopefully by the end of January I will have some idea of the
kind of support I have. That being said money is key, we
need to find ways to raise it."

...But It's All About the Presidential Elections
-------------- ---


5. (C) However, Sall made clear that he already has his eye
on the presidential elections scheduled to take place in

2012. When asked who he expects to be his competition in the
race for the presidency he said, "Tanor (Ousmane Tanor Dieng,
the Secretary General of the Socialist Party),Niasse
(Moustafa Niasse, the President of the Alliance Force for
Progress) will play some role, but my real challengers will
be Seck (Former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck, who is now the
leader of his own party: Rewmi),and if his father can
arrange things, Karim. Pape Diop (the Mayor of Dakar and the
President of the Senate) is an enigma. He is the
Constitutional heir (Note: as president of the Senate he
succeeds to the presidency on an interim basis if something
happens to the president. End note) and what he will do is as
yet unknown. He certainly has plenty of money, but he has
played it close to his chest."


6. (C) When asked about the prospect of Karim succeeding his
father, the President, Sall replied: "Frankly, (President)
Wade was pushed into this by his advisers. In the beginning,
he did not want his family involved in politics, but he
acquiesced to his advisors. Without his father, Karim has
nothing. Note that the movement he leads (Generation du
Concret (GC)) has no one of stature; even if people around

DAKAR 00001401 002 OF 003


Wade say they are supporting Karim, they are doing so to both
mollify and to not incur the wrath of the President. Also,
they too have started fighting among themselves." (Note:
Abdoulaye Balde, who is Karim Wade,s deputy at both the
National Agency for the Organization of the Islamic
Conference (ANOCI) and within the GC has come under
increasing attack by some of Karim,s supporters for his
growing ambitions. End Note.)


Sall Claims to Have Widespread Support
--------------


7. (C) Sall went on to say that he counts at least 22
members of parliament within the PDS as his supporters and
that he told them to remain where they are because he could
not personally support them outside of parliament. He
claimed: "A lot of people in the National Assembly realize
that the institution is being trampled upon by the Executive.
Even some of the people who voted to remove me from office
did so reluctantly but they were afraid to defy the
President."


8. (C) Asked if he would join the opposition coalition Front
Siggil Senegal, Sall said that he would not formally join the
group but that he was prepared to support their activities
and collaborate with its leaders. However, he noted: "They
have enough leadership problems of their own. I,ll support
them if need be, but I will walk a different path." As for
his former rival Seck, he insisted: "I have no problem with
Seck and we see eye to eye on some things. But when election
time comes we will face off against one another and let the
people decide. Whoever is ahead after the first round should
support the other in the second."

Reforming the System
--------------


9. (C) In a vein similar to many in the opposition, Sall said
that the size of the government was too large and that public
funds were being mismanaged. He said that his party,s
platform would be to revitalize the republican nature of the
State, strengthen the separation of powers and the National
Assembly in particular, reduce the size of the government,
revitalize agriculture, and redirect infrastructure projects
to areas outside of Dakar: &First I would get rid of the
Senate. Not only do they do nothing, the fact that the
President decided that they would be the senior chamber is
unacceptable. At least the deputies are chosen, even if
indirectly, in elections by the people. The Senate is chosen
by the President. In any case they duplicate the work of the
Assembly. I am for a unicameral system with a strong
Presidency where the National Assembly is allowed to do its
work. Also the multiplicity of agencies is draining vital
resources from the state, they need to be pared down, as do
the number of embassies that we have. As for infrastructure
projects, I see the utility of having some in Dakar but
really more investment is needed in the south and northwest.
There are vital roads that have been left in total disrepair.
On the agricultural front, we need to revitalize farming so
that we can create more employment.8

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Sall was frank during the meeting with PolOffs. He
seemed at ease and (remarkably) not at all bitter about his
treatment at the hands of President Wade. Instead he seemed
confident about his political future and his prospects for
winning the presidency. However, like his fellow
presidential contender Seck, he finds himself in the curious
position of having been Prime Minister of a government that
he now criticizes for wasteful spending and having weak
policies. He was also head of the National Assembly, which
he described as being useless. It was clear from the
conversation that he has milked his downfall from both his
positions to the fullest extent possible in order to pave the
way for the formation of his party and his eventual run for
President. After a having resisted the President's will for
more than a year, Sall now enjoys the luxury of being one of
the country's better known and sympathetically viewed
politicians.


11. (C) While Sall claims to be able and willing to
cooperate and collaborate with any of the other opposition
leaders on the left and on the right, during his time as
presidential enforcer he made many enemies. It is unclear if
he or Seck commands the most support within the ruling PDS,

DAKAR 00001401 003 OF 003


but Seck has already demonstrated his ability to mobilize a
significant percentage of voters and to raise the funds
necessary to win a presidential election. Given that both
Seck and Sall are likely to be viewed as a form of continuity
with Wade's government, they might cancel each out in a first
round thus improving the relatively dim election hopes of the
divided opposition on the left.


12. (C) Finally, the ethnic basis of support for Sall, who
counts on support from the Alpular and Serer people due to
his parentage and that of his wife, could be a worrisome
sign. It, in combination with ethnic-based gerrymandering of
electoral districts being carried out by Wade and its
influence in the political process could be the start of a
more active role of ethnicity in Senegalese politics than has
historically been the case. Moreover, Sall counts on support
from the Mourides religious group, just as Wade has done.
This overt involvement of religious leaders and the
manipulation of religious identity for political purposes
could potentially represent an erosion of Senegal's
tradition of tolerance. End Comment.
BERNICAT