GUINEA-BISSAU ELECTIONS COULD PROMPT UNEASE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 001324

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: KOCI PGOV PREL PU XY
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU ELECTIONS COULD PROMPT UNEASE IN
ARMED FORCES

Classified By: Classified by DCM Jay Smith for reasons 1.5 b/d


1. (C) SUMMARY: Threatened by the likely victory of the
African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape
Verde (PAIGC) in the November 16, 2008 legislative elections,
a handful of insecure Bissau Guinean army officers
theoretically could be persuaded to take action to forestall
PAIGC-promised reforms to the military (although resident
French, Spanish, Portuguese diplomats and intelligence
personnel, resident UN officials, as well as Bissau-Guinean
political leaders of all the major parties believe this is
unlikely). The popular army chief of staff, Tagme Na Wai,
who commands great loyalty within the armed forces, has
cautioned his soldiers to accept without question the outcome
of the election. Nonetheless, Post has coordinated with the
French Embassy in Bissau to discuss any potential
contingencies involving the tiny resident American community.
END SUMMARY.

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ARMED FORCES NEED TO BE REFORMED AND REDUCED IN SIZE
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2. (SBU) The armed forces of Guinea-Bissau are in dire need
of reform. The current size of 4,500 soldiers is
non-commensurate to any likely threat and fiscally
unsustainable. The EU-led security sector reform mission and
the UN is recommending that the armed forces be reduced to
3,500 personnel. Moreover, the army is top-heavy, with over
half of the members being officers, and over half of the
officers being at a rank of colonel or above. The army is
also dominated by a single ethnic group, the Balanta, which
constitutes 30 percent of the population as a whole. In the
Guinea-Bissau context, reforming the military will likely
mean massive demobilization, decommissioning, and a
rebalancing of the ethnic composition.


3. (SBU) Politically, security sector reform is being
championed by PAIGC, while the pro-Balanta Party for Social
Renewal (PRS) is more ambivalent towards reform. Indeed, it
was under a PRS government led by former President Kumba Yala
that the military became bloated, top-heavy and ethnically
unbalanced.

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LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS
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4. (C) Against this backdrop, in the lead-up to the November
16 legislative elections, the PAIGC is poised possibly to win
an outright majority, or at a minimum command a strong
position in a coalition government, likely with the
like-minded Republican Party for Independence and Development
(PRID),which is made up mostly of PAIGC dissidents.
Conversely, the PRS, champion of the members of the armed
forces, appears fractured and headed towards a poor showing
on the November 16 poll. PRS president, Kumba Yala, who
returned to self-imposed exile in Morocco following his
conversion to Islam and amid allegations of his ties to a
failed August 2008 coup, returned to Bissau in early
November, 2008.


5. (C) Given the possibility of demobilization and
decommissioning represented by a PAIGC government, military
officers theoretically could be moved to consider options to
counter the threat to the current status quo in the armed
forces. Although highly unlikely, one option may be military
insubordination following the election in the event of a
PAIGC victory. In the remote chance that soldiers were to
provoke unrest, it is unlikely that the popular Army Chief of
Staff, Tagme Na Wai, who commands great loyalty within the
armed forces, would support such a move. Indeed, Na Wai
traveled the country in early November, meeting with his
soldiers reportedly to caution them to support unequivocally
the election results.


6. (C) Given the remote possibility of the November 16
election prompting military unrest, the Canadian, British,
and German missions to Senegal and Guinea-Bissau have
consulted to discuss possible contingencies for their
citizens in Guinea-Bissau. Post has coordinated with the
French Embassy in Bissau, which would have the lead in
responding in the remote possibility of unrest breaking out.
BERNICAT