Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08COTONOU795
2008-12-19 12:41:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Cotonou
Cable title:  

BENIN: OPPOSITION TAKES FIRM STAND AGAINST

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR BN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHCO #0795/01 3541241
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191241Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY COTONOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0701
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1373
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0403
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000795 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W ACOOK
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
PARIS FOR BKANEDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: OPPOSITION TAKES FIRM STAND AGAINST
PRESIDENT YAYI

REF: COTONOU 622

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000795

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W ACOOK
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
PARIS FOR BKANEDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: OPPOSITION TAKES FIRM STAND AGAINST
PRESIDENT YAYI

REF: COTONOU 622


1. (U) SUMMARY: In an attempt to defuse the political crisis,
President Yayi met individually with leaders of the opposition
groups G4, G13 and Key Force in November 2008, and proposed a
November 27-28 joint meeting with them. Also, on November 18, the
GOB issued a decree to allow the full application of the 2002
Opposition Act, which grants special privileges to opposition
political parties. They rejected the two-day meeting proposal on the
grounds that they had not been consulted beforehand and that the
dates conflicted with their own meeting. On November 28 and 29,
opposition parties met in Bohicon in central Benin. During the
meeting they vehemently criticized President Yayi's policy and
re-affirmed their opposition to him. It appeared that the opposition
group will endorse a sole candidate to face President Yayi in the
2011 presidential election, Adrien Houngbedji, the President of the
Social Democratic Party (PRD),a component of the G4. END SUMMARY.




2. (SBU) Following his November 18 decision to hold a political
conference with the opposition, President Yayi met opposition
parties leaders forming the G4 namely Nicephore Soglo, Honorary
President of the Renaissance du Benin (RB),Sefou Fagbohoun,
president of the African Movement for Democracy and Progress
(MADEP),Bruno Amoussou, President of the Social-Democracy Party
(PSD),and Adrien Houngbedji, President of the Party of Democratic
Renewal (PRD). He also held talks with Nassirou Bako, the Spokesman
of the G13 and representatives of the Force Key party. Opposition
leaders hailed President Yayi for this initiative and expressed
concern that President Yayi should allow them more time for better
coordination and preparation of the conference. They also argued
that the proposed schedule for the conference coincided with their
own political meeting. It is notable that the meetings received
partial media coverage, and Post learned from reliable sources that
they were heated discussions off record.


3. (U) In the midst of this flurry of political activity, on
November 20, the Council of Ministers issued an enabling decree
which will permit the application of Opposition Act 2001 of October
14, 2002. The Opposition Act was introduced and adopted in 2002 by

former president Kerekou. The Act has not been implemented to date
by political parties, because it lacked an enabling decree for the
implementation of Article 12 of the Act dealing with the protocol
and other benefits that should be granted to declared opposition
leaders. To correct this, decree No 2008-649 of November 2008
defines protocol benefits for declared opposition leaders, including
participation in the signature of national and international
agreements, invitation to official events, assistance by Beninese
diplomatic missions when abroad, right to be consulted by the
President of the Republic on issues of general interest. As part of
other material benefits, opposition leaders are entitled to a car, a
driver, a bodyguard, a Special Advisor and a personal Secretary. The
initial Opposition Act No 2001-36 of October 14, 2002 sets a legal
framework for the political opposition by defining the criteria for
the registration of the opposition, the role, the rights and the
obligations of the opposition.


4. (SBU) On November 25, talks between Nicephore Soglo and President
Yayi were reportedly friendly because prior to the meeting, on
November 20 the government and the municipality of Cotonou had put
in place a concerted framework for resolving conflicts opposing the
central government and the mayor of Cotonou over the issue of
financial autonomy. On November 24, former President Kerekou played
the role of mediator when he accompanied G13 representatives to
visit President Yayi. Discussions between President Yayi and G13
representatives were reportedly tense due to the overly radical
requirements of this opposition group of 13 National Assembly's
deputies. Many critics have linked President Kerekou's involvement
in these discussions to his controversial affinity with Issa Saley,
the leader of the G13 and a businessman whose business prospered
during Kekerou's era.


5. (U) On November 28 and 29, leaders of the G4, G13, Key Force and
allied movements during a political meeting in Bohicon, central
Benin, voiced vitriolic statements against president Yayi's
governance. Each leader took the floor and vigorously criticized
President Yayi's policies. Bruno Amoussou, the Spokesman for the G4
and leader of PSD in his opening remarks said that the root cause of
the current difficulties lay in the political practice of the
"government of change", in its political philosophy and in its style
of governance. Nicephore Soglo, the RB's Honorary President and
Mayor of Cotonou pledged the unity of opposition parties. Lazare
Sehoueto, the leader of Key Force told the audience that the only
promising prospect of the opposition ahead of the 2011 presidential

COTONOU 00000795 002 OF 002


election was "to change the car and the driver". This last statement
epitomized the opposition's ultimate goal to alternate power in the
2011 presidential election.


6. (U) During the Bohicon meeting, Adrien Houngbedji, the president
of the PRD, a bonifree opposition leader, described the decree No
2008-649 of November 2002 as "an empty shell", because it failed to
address the crucial issues of security and equal access of the
opposition to the media. It is noteworthy that the very Opposition
Act No 2001-36 had already covered the security and equal access to
media issues so that the enabling decree no longer need to address
them. The issuance of the decree did not generate the expected
enthusiasm among political leaders that had linked the absence of a
declared opposition to the lack of an enabling decree to make it
fully applicable. Logically, Adrien Houngbedji appears to be the
only political leader that qualifies to be the opposition leader
under the Opposition Act, since PRD secured in the March 2007
legislative election 10 seats of the 83, exceeding the 10% of the
vote as required by the Act. Notably, leaders of parties with at
least 9 deputies at the National Assembly can register as opposition
leaders. No other parties have met this threshold requirement,
unless minor parties at the National Assembly group together to form
9-member parliamentary groups.


7. (SBU) Credible sources confirmed to Post that the G4, G13 and
Force Key seek to present PRD's Adrien Houngbedji as President
Yayi's challenger in the 2011 presidential election. NOTE: In the
March 2006 presidential poll, Houngbedji was backed by over six
political parties and thirty various movements and associations. In
the first round he obtained 24% of the vote and finished second. The
results of the run off showed Adrien Houngbedji with 25.5% of the
final tally END NOTE.


8. (U) The published report of the opposition's meeting provided a
somber picture of the economic, financial, social and institutional
situations confronting the country. As part of the recommendations,
the participants in the meeting urged the opposition coalition to
pool efforts towards national unity and peace, to hone strategies
for attaining power change in 2011. Participants also invited other
political forces to join them in the fight ahead of the 2011
presidential elections. Many observers believe that the Bohicon's
meeting, instead of fostering political dialogue and easing the
political tension, was a real trial of President Yayi's government.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: The electoral campaign for president in 2011 has
begun with the opposition's declared commitment to defeat President
Yayi. It is now uncertain that the G4, G13 and Key Force will enter
Yayi's government. This situation will continue to hamper the smooth
functioning of the National Assembly. If the opposition group, with
its current configuration, continues to stick together to propel
Houngbedji ahead of the 2011 presidential election, this will augur
ill for President Yayi. On the other hand, precocious electoral
campaigns by President Yayi will distract him from the efficient
implementation of his agenda. Since Benin's political landscape is
characterized by individual and opportunistic interests, intrigues,
regionalism and the politicians' readiness to jump ship, no one can
predict today what will happen in 2011. END COMMENT

BROWN