BENIN: OPPOSITION PARTIES TIGHTEN GRIP ON PRESIDENT YAYI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000622

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
PARIS FOR BKANEDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KMCA BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: OPPOSITION PARTIES TIGHTEN GRIP ON PRESIDENT YAYI

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REFTEL: A) COTONOU 617, B) COTONOU 450 and previous


1. (U) SUMMARY: To encourage participation of opposition parties in
his government, President Yayi has held extensive talks with their
leaders. These include the Renaissance of Benin (RB),the Social
Democracy Party (PSD),the Party for Democratic Renewal (PRD),the
African Movement for Democracy and Progress (MADEP) and the group of
13 dissident members of the presidential majority (G13). This effort
has failed. The parties have issued a joint statement declining the
offer to join Boni Yayi's government, ostensibly waiting until a
consensus is reached for solving a number of current social and
economic problems (Ref A). This recent development hampers
President Yayi's effort to recapture the majority at the National
Assembly. END SUMMARY.

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President Yayi Meets with Political Leaders
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2. (SBU) On August 2008, President Yayi held extensive talks with
"opposition" leaders including former president Nicephore Soglo,
honorary president of RB, Sefou Fagbohoun (MADEP),Issifou Saley
(G13) and Bruno Amoussou (PSD). He also met with former presidents
Emile Derlin Zinsou and Mathieu Kerekou. The stated objective of the
visits was to negotiate ministerial portfolio allotments. He also
wanted to send a strong message of political openness to the public.
Comment: Post reported separately on conditions allegedly put
forward by the "opposition parties" during these meetings, which
President Yayi said to have declined (Ref. A) End comment. Though
the opposition remained publicly silent over the outcome of the
consultations with President Yayi, the unusual presence of G13
leaders at a government groundbreaking ceremony for the construction
of a flyover in Cotonou sparked off a debate over possible
cooperation between president Yayi and the opposition. A close
relative of Bruno Amoussou, the leader of PSD, told Post that PSD
regarded the one-on-one meetings that President Yayi initiated with
opposition leaders as an attempt to undermine the cohesion of the
opposition as a whole.

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Opposition Declines President Yayi's Offer
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3. (U) On September 04, the G4 (consisting of the RB, the PSD, the
PRD and the MADEP),the G13, and the Key Force party issued a joint
statement in response to the invitation of President Yayi to
participate in the formation of a new government. In the statement,
these parties underscored 12 actions that President Yayi's
government must take before they would enter the government. These
included measures to tackle issues pertaining to the high cost of
living, management of public finance, operational efficiency of the
National Assembly and local authority, improvement of the electoral
system, a constitutional review, stimulation of the public sector,
improvement of workers' living condition and strengthening of
national unity. The opposition made it clear that there would be no
power sharing with President Yayi without a consensus for addressing
the problems cited in the announcement. Many observers view the
political opposition's flat refusal to cooperate with President Yayi
as contradictory to its own earlier criticism of the Yayi government
since some of the friction between them stemmed from his alleged
propensity to exclude the opposition from the corridors of power.
The statement released by the 5 main political parties and groups
associated with the National Assembly opposition majority (initiated
by Bruno Amoussou) appears to be a concerted effort to stand firm
against President Yayi.

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Opposition Parties' Agenda
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4. (SBU) The 5 opposition political parties and alliances in the
National Assembly have different interests. The Renaissance of Benin
(RB),the Social Democracy Party (PSD),the Party for Democratic
Renewal (PRD) and the Key Force party ran against President Yayi in
the March 2006 presidential election. They may well nourish
presidential ambitions for 2011, with the exception of Bruno
Amoussou, the leader of the PSD, who is constrained by the age limit
of 70 for presidential contenders stipulated in the Constitution.
The PRD's Adrien Houngbedji, who came second in the 2006
presidential runoff, will probably run in the 2011 presidential
elections. The leader of the dynamic Key Force party, Lazare
Sehoueto, does not conceal his presidential ambition. After his
son, Lehadi Soglo, failed in the 2006 presidential election,
Nicephore Soglo, Honorary President of RB and current Mayor of
Cotonou, will likely again support the candidacy of his son for

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2011. Soglo also wants to get the effective transfer of powers to
his commune to ensure financial autonomy. Most of the members of
MADEP, headed by Sefou Fagbohoun, and the G13 members are rich
businessmen who seek political power to boost their business
interests, but have no presidential ambitions.


5. (SBU) As a result of the divergence of interests among
opposition parties, internal dissension often impedes their cohesion
of purpose and action. On September 22, the press announced the
defection of two RB deputies, namely Yacoubou Malehossou and
Zepherin Kindjanhouande, who seek to create their own party,
allegedly in order to support Yayi's FCBE. On September 23, talking
to the press, Malehossou recognized that Kindjanhounde had asked him
to join in forming a party that would use the name of late President
Justin Ahomadegbe's Democratic Union of Dahomey (UDD). Malehossou
said that he refused to join the initiative, because he wanted to
remain loyal to the RB.

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Impasse in the National Assembly
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6. (U) As a result of the current political turmoil, the 47
opposition deputies continue to delay the adoption of practically
all legislation, including important legal reforms essential for
MCA-Benin's Access to Justice and Access to Land programs, although
the deputies reportedly may consider it extraordinarily. On
September 16, the deputies from the G4, G13 and Force Key boycotted
the plenary session that was to focus on the National Assembly's
2009 draft budget. In addition, the planned dismissal of the
president of the National Assembly remains on the agenda of the
opposition deputies.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: The move to appease the contentious opposition by
welcoming it into the government has failed. The opposition's
increasing pressure on President Yayi aims to make him commit
political blunders that would diminish his popularity. President
Yayi took a political risk by inviting opposition members into his
government who do not share his good governance convictions. Post
sees President Yayi's perceived failure to negotiate with the
opposition as his commitment to a good governance agenda that does
not appear to be that of the opposition (Ref A). This is a crucial
moment for Benin. President Yayi is under enormous pressure to
renounce key elements of his anti-corruption policy in the interest
of moving the country out of the current political dead-lock.
Ironically, some of the pressure stems from major donors who are
among his strongest anti-corruption supporters but need action in
the National Assembly to advance their programs. If President Yayi
can move the country out of the political log-jam without caving in
to the demands of the political "old order" associated with large
scale corruption, he will have rendered his country a lasting
service. END COMMENT.

BROWN