Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08COPENHAGEN625
2008-11-28 10:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Copenhagen
Cable title:  

Climate: Danes Looking Past Poznan to COP-15

Tags:  KGHG SENV ENRG DA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000625 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KGHG SENV ENRG DA
SUBJECT: Climate: Danes Looking Past Poznan to COP-15

REF: COPENHAGEN 01
STATE 119282

COPENHAGEN 00000625 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000625

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KGHG SENV ENRG DA
SUBJECT: Climate: Danes Looking Past Poznan to COP-15

REF: COPENHAGEN 01
STATE 119282

COPENHAGEN 00000625 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary: In a Noveber 25 meeting with DCM, Prime
Minister Rasmussens climate advisor, Ambassador Bo Lidegaard,
shard Denmark's raised hopes and concerns about the rod toward a
global climate agreement in Copenhage at the COP-15 meeting in
December 2009. Lidegard welcomed early signals from
President-elect Obma on climate policy, but said they raise new
cocerns about the negotiation process which Denmark opes to
discuss with transition members before January 20. Of foremost
concern is the need to continue a U.S.-led major economies process
to drive negotiations on substantive issues forward between a series
of head of state summits in 2009. Denmark wants its Prime Minister
to be included in that grouping. End Summary.


2. (SBU) DCM and REO met with Lidegaard on November 25. Lidegaard
heads the Prime Minister's climate secretariat, which coordinates
all aspects of Denmark's climate policy in the run-up to COP-15 (Ref
A),involving eight ministries and the political parties in the
governing coalition.

Collaboration on Climate Change Negotiations
--------------


3. (SBU) The DCM noted Denmark's leadership role in international
climate change negotiations as host of COP-15, and thanked Lidegaard
for Denmark's helpful interventions at the UNFCC ministerial in
Accra and within the EU Environment Council to encourage major
developing nations to assume greater responsibility under a
post-Kyoto climate framework. The DCM added that the U.S. agreed
with Denmark on the need to engage major developing nations like
China and India in the negotiations leading to COP-15. The upcoming
COP-14 in Poznan, he suggested, presented opportunities for
U.S.-Denmark engagement on climate policy, including with members of
the U.S. Congress.

Danish Concerns: Translating Substance
--------------


4. (SBU) Lidegaard said Denmark was eager to engage with the
incoming Administration and was "extremely encouraged" by
President-elect Obama's early emphasis on climate and energy issues.
The Danish government interprets the President-elect's
post-electoral statements on climate and economic issues to signal a
"Big Bang" approach to address looming crises, and Denmark now hopes
the new Administration will reveal an integrated plan of action on

the economy and climate upon taking office on January 20. Denmark
sees similar willingness to act on climate change in the Chinese
government, he said.


5. (SBU) Lidegaard said President-elect Obama's post-electoral
statements have "alleviated some of Denmark's concerns" as host of
COP-15, "but raised new ones." First among those relates to what
Denmark perceives as becoming its main task as host--i.e.
"translating" the U.S. and Chinese approaches to the climate issue,
which arise from different domestic contexts, to the international
context of the UNFCCC negotiations. These approaches differ sharply
in form and substance, he said, and will be "hard to reconcile."


6. (SBU) Elaborating briefly, Lidegaard said Denmark believes the
incoming U.S. Administration will "certainly not move (in climate
negotiations) without Congress being on board." Turning to China,
Lidegaard said he was impressed by the depth of Chinese engagement
on the climate issue. While authoritarian, the Chinese government
is "extraordinarily sensitive to its own domestic constituencies."
That sensitivity is reflected in the Chinese National Development
Planning Commission, which has the lead on the climate issue.


7. (SBU) To succeed in mediating between the U.S. and China (and
presumably India as well),he said, the Chinese would need to be
assured the U.S. would do "x and y and z" and the U.S. would need
similar assurances of Chinese commitments. Denmark hopes to assist
in this process by assuming the role of mediator/host.


8. (SBU) Turning to the EU, Lidegaard said, it would be "no trivial
matter" to reach consensus on the climate and energy package by the

COPENHAGEN 00000625 002.2 OF 002


end of the year, since its 27 members represent a "microcosm of the
world" on the climate issue. Nevertheless, he assured us "we (the
EU) will certainly resolve that by December," albeit with "much
blood on the floor." Ultimately, Denmark believes the U.S., Chinese
and EU approaches must be "brought into synch," and it sees its own
role as working toward that end.

More Concerns: Timing/Process/Level/Inclusion
-------------- -


9. (SBU) Beyond the substance of negotiations to come, Lidegaard
fretted over the process to achieve a global agreement in
Copenhagen, Denmark's ultimate goal. In Poznan, Denmark will seek
to insert language permitting UNFCC to add to its set schedule of
four meetings in 2009. But to be successful, the UNFCCC negotiation
will need reinforcement from heads of government. To do so required
continuation of "something akin to the Major Economies Process"
begun last year, as well as programmed meetings of heads of
government, to advance and "bless" the negotiation process from a
higher political level. Denmark assumes the new Administration may
modify the MEM grouping, and wishes its Prime Minister to be
included in the future, given his unique role as host of COP-15,
Lidegaard said.


10. (SBU) Lidegaard listed four key opportunities in 2009 to build
negotiating momentum leading to Copenhagen at COP-15:
--the U.S. Administration's policy pronouncements upon taking office
in January;
--the G20 summit on the financial crisis, probably in London, by
April 30;
--the mid-July G8 plus MEM summit, hosted by Italy; and
--the UNSYG High Level segment prior to UNGA.


11. (SBU) Lidegaard said Denmark is eager for opportunities to
engage the incoming Administration to share its views on the
procedural way ahead before January 20, and is eagerly awaiting
further U.S. signals, including whether the incoming Administration
names a "climate czar" to oversee U.S. engagement on the issue.
Concluding, he said the Danish government wished to pursue a "joint
vision" in cooperation with the U.S., and hopes to build upon
existing contacts with transition officials.

Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) Danish aspirations to mediate between the U.S.,
China/India, and the EU strike us as complementary to U.S.
interests. We have encouraged the Danes to engage with U.S.
officials in Poznan and Lidegaard assured us they would attempt to
do so.