YOUR VISIT TO COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000617

SIPDIS

FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR JIM CAIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON OVIP DA
SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO COPENHAGEN

Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Madam Secretary, you know Danish Foreign Minister Per
Stig Moller as a good colleague, and Denmark as one of our
closest allies in Europe. Your "farewell" visit here is much
appreciated by the Danes, who are naturally looking ahead to
the incoming administration but are also keen to highlight
the strength of their partnership with you. Your exchanges
with Per Stig and with Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen
will reinforce Danish resolve further in our common efforts
to confront global threats to peace, freedom, and prosperity.
As you know, the Danes are absolutely committed to sustained,
active engagement to meet these challenges.

A Steady Partner in the Wider World
--------------


2. (C) Denmark's commitment can be seen in its many overseas
deployments, from its naval vessels on patrol off the Horn of
Africa, to its peacekeeping forces in Kosovo and its
battle-hardened troops engaging the Taliban in Afghanistan's
southern Helmand province. Danish intelligence and security
services work hand in hand with ours in combating al-Qaeda at
home and abroad. A world leader in alternative energy
technology, Danish firms are at the forefront of developments
in wind power and biofuels, strengthening Denmark's "green"
credentials as it prepares to host the UN Climate Summit
(COP-15) in December 2009. Denmark contributes 0.8 percent of
its GDP in development and humanitarian aid, mostly to Africa
but also to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Palestinian
territories.


3. (C) Re-elected to a third term last year, the Rasmussen
government presides over a thin majority but with a
commanding position against a lackluster and frustrated
opposition. Although it has begun to feel the effects of the
global economic crisis, the Danish economy has experienced a
healthy expansion in recent years, unemployment is recently
higher but still near record lows (3.0 percent),and large
budget surpluses have been on the verge of wiping out the
Danish public debt altogether. Denmark is not without its
problems -- among them the challenges of a multicultural
society. Strained relations with its 200,000-strong Muslim
immigrant population were highlighted during the 2006 cartoon
crisis and again earlier this year when some of those
drawings were reprinted here.


4. (C) Even amid the global financial turmoil, the Danes are
sure to have the progress of our mission in Afghanistan, the
future of European security, and the transatlantic
relationship uppermost on their minds. In the Danes you will
find committed Atlanticists, convinced of the primacy of NATO
(while looking to eliminate Denmark's EU "opt-outs" on
defense, justice and the euro as soon as possible) but
concerned about the Alliance's ability to meet new and
ongoing challenges.


5. (C) Nowhere is this concern more pressing than regarding
the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Although the Danish
deployment enjoys broad parliamentary backing and public
support, the Danes remain troubled by the difficulties of
securing greater -- and more flexible -- contributions from
Allies and what this means for the future of NATO. The
foreign minister and prime minister will welcome a discussion
of efforts to encourage greater "solidarity" among members in
Afghanistan, assuming that the topic has not been exhausted
at the NAC ministerial earlier in the week. FM Moller
visited Afghanistan in late November, highlighting with
Karzai his skepticism of political engagement with Taliban
leaders and predicting publicly that Danish forces will be
present there for another 4-5 years.


6. (C) Meanwhile, Denmark itself is on the front lines of the
battle against Islamic extremism and terror in Europe, and
the Danes are working closely with us to disrupt nascent
terror cells and promote better integration of immigrant
communities. Danish authorities have made a number of
high-profile arrests in the past two years, including one
with direct links to al-Qaeda and on which we cooperated
closely. Denmark has a mixed record on prosecutions and we
are now providing them with assistance in this area as well.
Although the cartoons/freedom of expression issue remains
something of a blind spot for the Danes, there are signs of
an evolution in public opinion here; a poll earlier this year
showed majorities approving of the cartoon's original
publication but disapproving of a more recent reprinting.

Some Retrospection, and a Look Ahead
--------------


7. (C) FM Moller and PM Rasmussen are certain to invite your
reflections on a range of critical issues as you leave
office. In addition to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Moller in
particular will want to hear your assessment of the Middle
East peace process, given his long-standing interest and his
own recent travel there (including to Syria). As you know,
Moller remains a strong advocate of a multi-track approach.
We can expect that the Danes will seek your perspective on
long-term relations with Russia, as well as approaches in
that context to Georgia, Ukraine, and missile defense.


8. (C) Despite last year's withdrawal, the Danes still
consider themselves part of the Coalition in Iraq and will be
interested in your assessment of the situation there.
Rasmussen and Moller have been among the strongest voices for
maintaining a tough line on Iran, on terrorism, nuclear
proliferation and human rights grounds. With incidents of
high-seas piracy in the Gulf of Aden alarmingly high, the
Danes -- currently leading the CTF-150 naval mission off the
Horn of Africa -- have grown increasingly vocal about the
need for coordinated action to protect Danish and
international shipping there.


9. (C) Naturally, the foreign and prime ministers are keenly
interested in our transition and would welcome any insights
you could offer into the process, together with observations
about the key players and anticipated agenda of the incoming
administration. The Danes may highlight their hosting of the
UN COP-15 meeting here next December, which they hope will
approve a new global climate change treaty and solidify
Danish credentials as a leader in renewable energy. Although
Denmark has so far managed to weather the global economic
crisis better than others, the Danes are deeply concerned
about the situation and its impact on trade, and may seek
your views on the latest developments.


10. (C) Moller and Rasmussen may ask your views on the likely
early closure of Guantanamo and how that process would work;
the Danes rejected our earlier appeals to accept former
detainees, but soon may find themselves forced to revisit the
issue. Finally, your letter on alleged rendition flights
through Danish airspace proved invaluable to managing this
contentious issue last month, and Per Stig may want to
recognize this privately.


11. (C) In addition to expressing appreciation for all
Denmark has done -- especially in Afghanistan, I recommend
that you reassure the Danes that the next administration will
be committed to working closely with European partners,
particularly those such as Denmark dedicated to active
engagement on global challenges. Long among the most
pro-American allies in Europe, the Danes have sought to
cultivate a close relationship with us in recent years,
typified by the warm friendship between Rasmussen and
President Bush. The Danes approach the new U.S.
administration with a mixture of anticipation and
trepidation, hopeful about new opportunities and a freshening
of the relationship, but also concerned about maintaining a
privileged position despite their relatively small size.
Ultimately, such concerns will be addressed in time, but your
visit offers an important opportunity to reaffirm in strong
terms the enduring affection and strategic partnership
between our two nations.


12. (SBU) Madam Secretary, I look forward to welcoming you
here next week. As a point of information, the day before
your arrival in Copenhagen I will return from a three-day
visit to Afghanistan with Defense Minister Gade to visit
Danish and American troops. Yours, Jim Cain.
CAIN