Climate Change: Denmark Restructures to Host COP-15

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 COPENHAGEN 000601

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG DA
SUBJECT: Climate Change: Denmark Restructures to Host COP-15

REF: A. STATE 116939
B: COPENHAGEN 501

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1. (SBU) This cable responds to questions posed in Ref A.


Q. Has your host government altered its bureaucratic structure for
addressing climate change over the past 12-18 months? If so, how?
How might upcoming elections affect current policy positions and
entities?


A. Yes. The Danish Government created a new Ministry of Climate
and Energy in November 2007, shortly after the re-election of the
coalition government headed by Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
of the Liberal Party (Venstre). National elections are not required
again until 2011, but could be called at any time. There is
persistent speculation that Rasmussen may consider leaving his post
should an appropriate EU or NATO position become available. Should
he do so, national elections might occur but are not required.

Connie Hedegaard, a leading member of the Conservative Party, which
forms part of the governing coalition, and who formerly served as
Environment Minister, was appointed as Denmark's first Minister of
Climate and Energy in November 2007. (Note: Hedegaard was recently
passed over as Conservative party leader, but press speculated that
she might instead become Foreign Minister in the future, assuming
she handled COP-15 successfully.)

Preparing for COP-15
--------------

Denmark has also established a new inter-agency coordinating
structure, located in the Prime Minister's office, to oversee
planning and preparing for COP-15. The senior body overseeing
strategic issues and planning for the conference is the Danish
Government's Climate Conference Committee, chaired by the Prime
Minister and including the Ministers for Climate Change and Energy;
Foreign Affairs; Development Cooperation; Finance; Economy and
Business Affairs; Environment; Transport; and Science, Technology
and Innovation.

Below this, the Permanent Secretaries Group is made up of the civil
service heads of the same ministries. Both of these bodies are
supported by the Climate Secretariat, which comprises
representatives from each of the same ministries. The Secretariat
is headed by Bo Lidegaard, Head of the Climate Division in the
Danish Prime Minister's Department (and career diplomat); the
Secretariat reports to the Climate Conference Committee through the
Permanent Secretaries Group.

A smaller grouping comprising the permanent secretaries of the
Departments of the Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs, and Climate
Change and Energy, and their representatives in the Secretariat
(including climate negotiator Thomas Becker) meets about once every
three weeks to discuss strategic issues. The Danish Government has
also established country task forces to consider strategic issues
relating to key countries (Brazil, Russia, China, India, USA, South
Africa, Indonesia and Bangladesh).

Recently, the government has launched several cross-ministerial
working groups to focus on climate change related issues. The
"green growth" group focuses on agriculture and food production role
in climate change. The "sustainable transport" group is tasked with
addressing growing emissions from the Danish traffic sector.

COP-15 Logistics Planning
--------------

The MFA is responsible for logistical planning for COP-15. Svend
Olling, Head of the COP-15 Secretariat in MFA, shared the following
logistical information at a briefing of the diplomatic corps on
September 30.

The UNFCCC will handle all COP-15 accreditation issues. With the
prospect of an agreement at COP-15, UNFCCC is projecting
accreditation of 12-15,000 conference participants. The government
has hired a professional conference organizer, the firm NGH, to
handle conference accommodations. (The Danish Government website
for the COP is http://www.cop15.dk/en and for NGH is cop15@nhg.dk.)
NGH has reserved 10,000 hotel rooms in the metro Copenhagen area.
(Note: per the Department's instructions, we have requested 250 for
the U.S. delegation).

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Delegation rooms of varying sizes are being constructed at a special
temporary pavilion connected to the Bella Center, the convention
center where the official COP-15 meetings will take place. Requests
made before June 24, 2009 will be accommodated.

COP-15 official transportation will consist of a limo (for two
passengers) and a van (for eight),per delegation. A combination of
public transportation and shuttles will be available for others.

A business conference called "Bright Green" will coincide with
COP-15, but will take place at another Copenhagen venue on December
5-6.

Taking the Initiative
--------------

Denmark's lead climate negotiator is Thomas Becker, Deputy Permanent
Secretary for Global Climate in the Climate and Energy Ministry.
Hired under the government that preceded the Fogh Rasmussen-led
coalitions, Becker can be a difficult interlocutor. Becker is a
former boxer and can be critical of USG positions in private, but
excuses his bluntness as a form of "tough love." In a recent
meeting with the DCM he expressed willingness to engage more
frequently with the Embassy in the run-up to COP-15. He is
currently visiting the U.S., where the Danish Embassy is attempting
to arrange meetings with the incoming Obama Administration.

Denmark's climate diplomacy is explicitly intended to improve the
chances of securing an "ambitious international climate protocol."
It includes the Greenland Dialogue (inviting world leaders to visit
Greenland to witness global warming effects on outlet glaciers
there),bilateral negotiations and public diplomacy initiatives.

Climate Attaches Sent to Key Capitals
--------------

In August, Minister Hedegaard appointed five new climate attaches to
serve in Danish Embassies in Washington, New Delhi, Moscow,
Pretoria, and Brasilia. Their task is to work with host governments
to help Denmark, as host, prepare for a successful COP-15 meeting in
Copenhagen in December 2009. The new attaches are responsible for
covering their region to identify the key players, collect
information and establish partnerships with local groups. They are
members of embassy staff, but are responsible solely for climate and
energy issues. The five are: Hans Jakob Eriksen (posted to
Washington, DC),Steven Foster (Moscow),Tine Lund (Brasilia),
Thomas Haahr (New Delhi) and Peter Krogh Soerensen (Pretoria).
Eriksen, 44, is well and favorably known to the Embassy and comes
from a position in the Climate Ministry.

The Ambassador hosted four of the five new attaches at a lunch in
their honor at his residence in August, before they departed for
their postings (for a full report on the meeting, see Ref B).
According to Eriksen, the naming of the five attaches grew out of
Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard's push for greater
reporting on climate negotiations from embassies in these key
capitals. Lund more diplomatically credited the PM's office for the
initiative. Eriksen said the attaches would go beyond reporting to
conduct climate diplomacy (by "offering suggestions" to host
nations) to build consensus in favor of an agreement in Copenhagen.


The four attaches we met said they were meeting for the first time
as a group. Two hailed from the Climate ministry (Eriksen and
Lund); Foster, a career commercial diplomat, and Soerensen, a former
military officer who has been working with the UN and NGOs in Iraq
and the Middle East on humanitarian assistance, admitted they are
new to the subject of climate change. Only Foster had served in an
embassy before (including to Moscow).

Eriksen said he had been selected by Becker for the Washington
posting after having accompanied Hedegaard on her numerous visits to
the U.S. over the past year. Hedegaard has made encouraging U.S.
participation in the negotiation to replace the Kyoto Protocol a top
Danish priority. Eriksen had accompanied Climate Minister Hedegaard
to meetings this summer in Washington with Obama and McCain climate
advisors. The Ambassador encouraged Eriksen to make contact with
U.S. negotiators at State/CEQ/NSC as well.

Echoing Minister Hedegaard, the attaches described themselves as

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"realistic" about chances a binding treaty could be signed at the
COP-15 meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. Eriksen speculated
that something short of that might instead be achieved. For
example, there might be an agreement "with holes in it to be filled
later."



2. (SBU) Q. To what extent are new ministries or foreign offices
strengthening their embassies in Washington to represent views on
climate change to the U.S. Executive Branch and Congress?


A. In addition to naming Eriksen as climate attache, the Danish
Embassy in Washington has been actively pushing climate diplomacy
with the USG and society over the past year. Minister Hedegaard
travels regularly to Washington, and partly as a result of Codel
visits to observe warming first-hand in Greenland, has developed a
range of personal contacts in Congress (including with Senators
McCain and Boxer, Representative Markey, and Speaker Pelosi).

According to her staff, Hedegaard has had contact with advisors to
the McCain, Obama and Clinton campaigns over the past year, and has
personally conducted outreach to Hill staffers and members. The
Danish Embassy has also maintained dialogue and conducted outreach
to the Department and on the Hill on climate issues. This month,
the Danes joined with the embassies of France and Poland to host a
conference entitled "Rising to the Challenge of Climate Change
Globally and in the United States," where U/S Dobriansky gave an
address.


3. (SBU) Q. To what extent have your colleagues in other embassies
sought you out to discuss the climate change issue or current and
prospective U.S. policy on climate change?


A. We have not received many inquiries, but we maintain regular
contact with counterparts in the British Embassy on climate issues,
and are considering some joint events that could involve other
embassies (e.g. visits to Danish innovation sites). We plan to
reach out to other embassies here, especially the Swedes, French,
and Canadians, to propose regular dialogue in the lead-up to
COP-15.


4. (SBU) Q. How much of a restructuring has your government
actually done to create the new ministry? What existing entities
were simply rolled into the new ministry? What new entities have
they set up within the new organization? Do you have details on the
budget and number of employees in the new entities? In your
judgment, are these entities making meaningful contributions to the
domestic and international debate on climate change?


A. According to ministry sources, under Hedegaard's leadership, the
Climate Minister's office has grown from an initial staff of 50 to a
present size of around 90. Of these, 35 staff are dedicated
primarily to preparing for COP-15. The Ministry's more technical
Energy Agency has also been boosted, by 17 new staffers.

The Climate and Energy Ministry retains the energy agencies of the
pre-existing Transport and Energy Ministry. These include the
Danish Energy Agency, the Geological Survey of Denmark and
Greenland, the Danish Meteorological Institute, the North Sea
Partner and the North Sea Foundation, the Energy Savings Trust, the
Energy Board of Appeal, Energinet.dk state-owned company, and the
Danish Energy Regulatory Agency. While the transportation elements
were lost to a separate ministry during restructuring, the Climate
and Energy Ministry acquired the climate diplomacy function from the
Environment Ministry that Hedegaard had formerly headed.

The ministry's core budget rose 8% from 2007 to 2008, to $310
million. The government has allocated an additional $41 million has
been dedicated solely to preparations for COP-15.

Evaluating Performance
--------------

The new Climate and Energy Ministry has had notable success shifting
Government climate policy towards actively promoting an
international climate agreement at COP-15. It is worth noting that
in his first government which took office in 2001, Prime Minister
Rasmussen had appointed notable climate skeptic Bjorn Lomborg to
head the Environmental Analysis Institute, and had frozen new taxes,
limiting resources for new renewable energy research and incentives.
But after winning the right to host COP-15 and at Hedegaard's

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urging, the Government has become a very active promoter of an
"ambitious" international climate agreement in Copenhagen.

In doing so, Denmark's government has highlighted its own record on
energy, and portrayed itself as leading the climate debate by
example. Since the oil crisis of the 1970s, Denmark has successfully
pursued energy independence, reducing its dependence on energy
imports from 95% in 1980 to becoming a net energy exporter since

1998. It has done so by developing and promoting energy efficiency,
renewable energy and increasing its exploitation of domestic
hydrocarbon resources in the North Sea. Between 1990 and 2007,
production of renewable energy in Denmark increased by 170% and
today accounts for 19.1% of Denmark's total energy use. Most
notably, wind capacity remains the highest per capita in the world,
wind power accounting for 18.8% of Denmark's domestic electricity
supply in 2007. Exports of wind and other innovative energy
technologies more than doubled from 2000 to 2007, to US$9 billion,
comprising 9.2% of Danish exports.

The Government has also stepped up its international climate
diplomacy efforts. The Prime Minister and the Climate and Energy
Minister have both visited China, India and the U.S. regularly over
the past year to promote progress towards a COP-15 accord. Denmark
has played an active role in climate negotiations within the EU and
UN frameworks. (Denmark has also directly participated in the MEM
process by joining EU delegations there.) Denmark has repeatedly
called for the United States to "take steps first" on climate,
asserting this would create momentum for China and others to follow.


Ambitious Goals
--------------

Denmark has been active supporting ambitious climate policies and
targets within the EU. Denmark has committed to increase its use of
renewables to 20% by 2011 and by 30% by 2020. In accordance with EU
goals, Denmark must reduce average emissions of greenhouse gases in
the period 2008-2012 by 21% in relation to the base period of
1990-1995. Danish Energy Authority statistics for 2007 report that
overall (adjusted) CO2 emissions have already fallen 13.3% below
1990 levels. Denmark's per capita C02 emissions had fallen 18.3%
during the same period.

The Danish government announced a national energy policy for
2008-2011 in February, with support from nearly all parties
represented in parliament. Notably, the policy commits the nation
to reducing its overall energy consumption by 2% reduction by 2011,
from 2006 levels.

Skeptics Remain
--------------

Critics point out that despite its international activism on the
climate issue, the Rasmussen governments have failed to keep pace
domestically. They point out that though its share of domestic
electricity production has declined steadily since 1990, coal still
supplies the majority of Danish power generation (57%). They charge
that investment in renewable energy technology has leveled off after
rapid growth under the previous governing coalition, and wind
developments onshore have been limited to upgrading old wind
turbines.

The government has countered criticism by creating new programs for
public outreach like the "One Ton Less" energy awareness campaign
which won EU kudos recently, and naming several "Energy Cities" to
reward progress. Minister Hedegaard recently announced that the
government had doubled funding for energy and climate research and
development over the past four years (to $129 million).

Denmark's international climate efforts have been popular and
boosted domestic support for the government. After COP-14 in
Poznan, Denmark will be challenged to transition from a position of
international advocacy to the role of good host.