UNION LEADER SAYS IT IS TIME FOR A COUP

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000091

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNION LEADER SAYS IT IS TIME FOR A COUP

REF: A. CONAKRY 0067


B. CONAKRY 0068

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. Visibly disheartened and in poor health,
union leader Rabiatou told Poloff that the only way out of
Guinea,s political impasse is a coup d,etat. She
relentlessly criticized the prime minister, apparently seeing
him as yet another corrupt official betraying the public
trust. Rabiatou also commented on her perceptions of
underlying ethnic tensions, union divisions, and her personal
political ambitions. She looked beaten down and was
unconvinced that any of the political mechanisms in place,
including the consensus government, are going to successfully
achieve the political change she says the people are
demanding. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Poloff met privately with union leader Mme. Serah
Rabiatou on January 31 at the Embassy. Rabiatou is the
Secretary General of the CNTG (National Confederation of

SIPDIS
Guinean Workers) as well as the co-chair of Guinea,s
Unions-Intersyndicale, an umbrella organization representing
a number of individual member labor unions.

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THE PRIME MINISTER HAS FAILED
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3. (SBU) Rabiatou noted that she had attended the January 29
inaugural meeting of the Committee de Suivi (reftel A),which
she said is unlikely to produce acceptable results. She
criticized Prime Minister Kouyate for choosing to travel to
the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa rather than delaying
his trip and going to the committee meeting. According to
Rabiatou, Kouyate left at least five days before the summit
and could have stayed in Conakry one extra day in order to
attend the meeting. It is negligence on his part and
demonstrates his indifference,, Rabiatou commented. She
noted that the next committee meeting is scheduled for
February 7, saying that the various representatives are
supposed to consult with their constituents and then come
back to the table in order to negotiate a plan of action for
the committee.


4. (C) With disgust evident on her face, Rabiatou detailed a
laundry list of complaints against the prime minister. She
said that the PM failed to compete numerous contracts,
instead awarding them to individuals personally connected to
him. On the controversial government restructuring decree,
Rabiatou said she personally told the PM not to print it
because it contained too many errors. He printed it
anyway, which is now causing lots of problems,, she said.
She noted that bread is increasingly expensive and that
market conditions in general are worse than they were in

2007. Despite some improvements in electricity and water,
Rabiatou said that basic utilities remain a significant
problem. She also criticized Kouyate for holding his cabinet
meeting on January 29 since he had told the unions that he
would not hold another cabinet meeting until the former
minister of communications is reinstated. Rabiatou
questioned the government audits that Kouyate was supposed to
do, noting that they have apparently been finished, but not
released to the public.


5. (C) Continuing in the same vein, Rabiatou said that the
second point in the January 27 Accords demands justice with
respect to the corruption case against Conte crony Mamadou
Syllah. She said that Syllah continues to act with impunity,
noting that his private company, Futurlec, continued to
advertise on public radio and television channels throughout

2007. Rabiatou also said that Syllah is paying at least four
different unions in an effort to keep the unions divided.


6. (C) According to Rabiatou, Guineans are even more
disappointed today than they were a year ago and it is
because Kouyate has failed. She said that Kouyate is simply
conducting a masquerade before the international community.
He is trying to convince everyone to hand over as much
money as possible so that he can turn around and put it in
his pocket,, she said.

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IT IS TIME FOR A COUP
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7. (S) Rabiatou told poloff in my personal opinion, the
only answer at this point is to organize a coup d,etat and
then work through a period of political transition.,

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According to Rabiatou, all of Guinea,s current leaders are
only thinking about themselves. I never wished for things
to turn out this way,, she said. Poloff asked Rabiatou if
she knew of any coup plots in the works. She shrugged her
shoulders and said I am not the only one who is talking
about it., However, Rabiatou added that the military is
increasingly divided, as are other sectors of Guinean
society. She also said that she does not see an alternative
to a coup since she doubts the Committee de Suivi will come
up with a workable solution before March 31. It is time
for a revolution,, she said. (COMMENT. Rabiatou,s husband
was a high ranking police official and several of her family
members are either in the military or in the police. END
COMMENT.)


8. (C) Poloff asked Rabiatou about her relationship with the
presidency, a question that brought visible disdain to her
face. She said that she has nothing to do with the
presidency. I never forget,, she said, that when we
were arrested in 2007, the President looked over at me and
told his guard to bring him that small lady. He looked
directly at me as he told his entourage ) let them go, I
will get them bit by bit; I am a general and I may lose a
battle, but I will not lose the war.,


9. (C) Noting recent important developments such as the
return to a funded IMF program and some progress towards
elections, Poloff told Rabiatou that Guinea stands to lose
much if it should descend into violence again. Rabiatou
appeared unconvinced as she asked who is going to benefit
from this progress ) it is only a small group, the same
group., Poloff asked Rabiatou if she could envision an
alternative, non-violent solution. According to Rabiatou,
the only possible answer is a national dialogue that can
develop a concrete strategy that would include modifying the
constitution, holding Kouyate accountable for his performance
and dismissing him if necessary, and then solidifying the
power of the PM position. However, Rabiatou said that the
president is unlikely to accept any solution that is offered.
We can only have peace if we work together this way,, she
said. She added the only other alternative is if God call
Conte back to his side.,

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ETHNIC PARANOIA
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10. (C) Unprompted, Rabiatou discussed the ethnic undertones
to Guinea,s current political dynamic. As a Peuhl, she said
that many Peuhls see Kouyate as a potential throwback to
Sekou Toure because of his Malinke background. Rabiatou said
that both of her parents as well as brothers, uncles, cousins
and others were killed by Sekou Toure in Camp Boiro, Toure,s
notorious political prison. According to Rabiatou, the
massive elephant statue that the Guinean Government recently
erected in honor of the country,s soccer team mascot, only
serves to remind Peuhls of their suffering under Toure since
the elephant was a symbol of Toure,s regime. Rabiatou said
that Peuhls were disproportionately targeted by Toure and
fear further victimization under Kouyate, or another Malinke
leader. Because of Sekou Toure,s legacy, no one, no
Soussous, no Forestiers, no Peuhls, no one will accept to
have a Malinke leader of this country,, she said.

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I NEVER WANTED THE STRIKE
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11. (C) Turning to the aborted strike of January 10,
Rabiatou said that she was never in favor of resuming the
strike and that she relentlessly advocated for it to be
suspended. According to her, it would have been a
catastrophe,, if it had gone forward since violence would
have been likely. Rabiatou said she was in the minority
since the other unions were pushing to hold the strike
immediately and did not even want to allow for time for
negotiations. She said that she received numerous calls from
her constituents in the interior who begged her to derail the
strike because people were not ready for it.

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UNION DIVISIONS
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12. (C) Poloff asked about internal divisions within the
unions. Rabiatou said I cannot lie, Dr. Fofana and I are
not on the same page. He firmly supports Kouyate., (NOTE.
Dr. Fofana is the co-chair of Unions-Intersyndicale. END
NOTE). Rabiatou said that for her, the political conflict

CONAKRY 00000091 003 OF 003


revolves around whether or not people remain in poverty, not
on any one political personality. She noted that the
International Labor Organization is sending a team to Conakry
in early February in order to try and resolve some of the
internal tensions between the various unions.


13. (S) In response to a question about Fofana,s personal
motivations, Rabiatou said that he is highly ambitious
politically and is looking for a position of power., She
noted that Fofana did not initially support Kouyate as a
candidate for PM, but now does so wholeheartedly because they
share the same ethnicity. Rabiatou added that she is not
sure what Fofana is up to. She mentioned a conference in
June of 2007 that both she and he were supposed to attend.
She said that Fofana went early because he said he was going
to visit with is family. However, when she got there,
Rabiatou inadvertently discovered that Fofana, along with
three other Malinkes, had been meeting with French military
officials. These were the same men that organize coups in
other countries,, she said.

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HERE FOR THE PEOPLE
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14. (C) Poloff asked Rabiatou if she has political
aspirations of her own. She said that her sole ambition is
for Guinea to share its riches equitably so that her children
will benefit from Guinea,s future prosperity. I do not
have to have personal ambitions to contribute to this
cause,, she said. She added that if people pushed her in
that direction, she might consider it. However, she noted
that she had been approached by various politicians,
including Cellou Diallo of the opposition UFDG, but that she
had refused to join them. I am not interested in being on
the National Assembly and I have not considered the
presidential elections,, she said.

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COMMENT
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15. (C) Rabiatou looked tired and unwell. Her health has
been poor for several weeks and she looked as if she had not
slept well in a long time. When asked about her health, she
said she was not doing well at all and attributed it to
enormous stress and lack of sleep. Throughout the meeting,
her mannerisms and facial expressions suggested hopeless
discouragement and deep disappointment.


16. (S) Rabiatou was very clear in her assessment ) she
sees no way out except removal of the president. This is a
sentiment that has been echoed by a number of contacts in
recent weeks, including opposition leader Sidya Toure (reftel
B). While many contacts appear to be supporting a mechanism
for dialogue and general progress towards elections as a
viable solution, few contacts seem to think this strategy
will actually work. Like Rabiatou, they see the president as
the main obstacle and seem to be waiting for him to disappear.


17. (S) With divisions evident within every organizational
actor in Guinea,s political drama, it is never quite clear
where individuals stand. Rabiatou has generated much
distrust among her union colleagues who reportedly have
reason to believe that she may be conspiring against them.
This may be true, but at the same time, she comes off as
genuine. Her distaste for both the president and the prime
minister were blatantly obvious and she seemed genuinely
uninterested in personal political gain, which raises a
question. If she is not supporting the president or the
prime minister, and she is not seeking to position herself,
then on whose behalf is she acting? It is possible that she
may genuinely see herself as the people,s advocate ) and
then again, there is just enough ambiguity there to keep
everyone guessing. END COMMENT.
CARTER