PLANNED PROTEST LACKS ORGANIZED SUPPORT

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000085

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ASEC KDEM PREL GV
SUBJECT: PLANNED PROTEST LACKS ORGANIZED SUPPORT

REF: CONAKRY 0080


1. (SBU) Guineans throughout the capital continue to discuss
the possibility of a large, public march on April 10 to
protest rising prices (reftel). However, while people
generally support the underlying principles for the protest,
there is little organizational support. The President of the
Organization for Consumer Protection (OPC),which initially
planned the event, told Pol LES on April 9 that the Guinean
Government had not granted permission for the march. As a
result, the OPC is reportedly planning to hold a press
conference at 16:00 to officially call off the demonstration.
According to the organization's president, they will cite
the lack of government permission and stress that they do not
want to risk putting people in harm's way.


2. (SBU) Representatives from various youth associations,
the unions, and civil society organizations told Embassy
staff that their organizations do not plan on participating
in the protest if it goes forward as planned. One youth
representative said his organization had not been consulted
and was not part of the planning.


3. (SBU) On April 8, the African Group for the Defense of
Human Rights (RADDHO),which is a Senegal-based NGO with an
office in Guinea, acknowledged OPC's plan to demonstrate.
They emphasized that freedom of speech and the right to
demonstrate are rights guaranteed by the Guinean
constitution. However, RADDHO expressed concern about the
potential for human rights abuses and violence and called on
the international community to intervene in order to avoid a
"new blood bath." RADDHO's resident representative, Mamady
Kaba, told Pol LES on April 9 that he had been out of the
country and only returned three days ago. He said that he
plans to visit the OPC's executive bureau members tomorrow in
order to "express moral support," but will not be joining any
demonstration. Kaba reportedly said that given his absence,
he did not have any time to mobilize broader support from
within his organization.


4. (SBU) The Russian DCM, who was visibly concerned about
the possibility of a demonstration, met with our DCM on April
9 to discuss the situation and Embassy perceptions of
possible activity. Other diplomats in the international
community who were participating in a working group meeting
on elections, which Poloff attended, also expressed concern
about the growing potential for violence. They did not
necessarily think that the demonstration would go forward as
planned tomorrow, but did appear to see Guinea's overall
political situation as increasingly volatile.

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COMMENT
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5. (SBU) At this point, there is no indication that a
demonstration or protest will develop tomorrow, as envisioned
by the event's organizers. However, it is possible that
unorganized elements and/or individual citizens could gather
together in a more spontaneous fashion, regardless of whether
they hear the cancellation announcement or not. END COMMENT.

CARTER