LACK OF CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP AS TRANSITION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000797

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PMIL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: LACK OF CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP AS TRANSITION
DISCUSSIONS CONTINUE

REF: A. CONAKRY 0787

B. CONAKRY 0788

C. CONAKRY 0793

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. Certain segments of the youth population
appear to be the only civilian sector currently engaging the
military putschists, but coup leaders may be becoming
increasingly disinclined to facilitate an immediate
transition to civilian rule. The international community is
demanding a return to civilian rule, but Guinean civil
leaders are going to need to start playing a more visible
role in order to achieve this objective. To date, they do
not seem to be doing so. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) In response to the December 23 coup (reftels),
civilians appear to be adopting a wait and see approach,
essentially waiting for the dust to settle before formulating
their reaction. Part of this strategy may be due to the
population's general distrust of the military, and an
underlying fear of violence. In the past, many civilian
contacts have indicated that they fully expected the military
to step in after the president's death, but that a civilian
transitional government would need to be an immediate next
step. Violence perpetrated by security forces during the
2007 strike and the 2008 military mutiny, as well as the
general increase in banditry by uniformed personnel, has made
citizens increasingly wary of its military.


3. (S) The only civilian sector that appears to be currently
engaging with the putschists is the youth, and even that
group seems to be limited in its support base. Poloff spoke
at length with Thierno Balde, the youth liaison with the
putschists, on December 23. Thierno has been increasingly
frustrated in his dealings with the military over the past
few months. He told Poloff that the youths are insisting on
a civilian transition, but that it is becoming more and more
difficult to advance that agenda. Poloff emphasized that the
US Government is looking for a peaceful, democratic
transition led by civilians. Thierno agreed, saying he and
the youths completely agreed and that they are relaying this
message to the putschists. However, Thierno said that there
is growing resistance among the putschists to civilian
leadership.


4. (S) Thierno's latest plan, as of 19:00 yesterday, was to
establish a transitional council that included a civilian
prime minister as the head of government. Thierno said that
there would also be a president, to be filled by a military
officer, and three vice presidents in order to allow all four
ethnic groups to be equally represented. He emphasized that
the leadership should be decided by unanimous consensus.
During the course of the discussion, it became clear that the
proposed council would only have two civilian members.
Poloff questioned how such a council could be considered
civilian since it would be predominantly controlled by the
military. Thierno said that the new PM would be exclusively
in control of elections, and that nobody on the council would
be able to run as a candidate.


5. (U) Poloff commented that whatever institution is created
must clearly demonstrate the Guinean Government's commitment
to civilian rule and elections in the near-term. She pointed
out that legislative elections are already on track for May
2009 and that the Council should adhere to this schedule in
order to advance the democratic process. Thierno countered
by saying that legislative and presidential elections should
be held concurrently.


6. (SBU) Less than an hour after the conversation, the
putschists announced the creation of a predominantly military
council with problematic membership (septel),indicating that
Thierno probably did not even have an opportunity to present
his latest proposal.


7. (S) Thierno telephoned Poloff again on December 24 saying
that he and the putschists were in the process of negotiating
an acceptable solution, but he did not indicate whether he
had been successful in pushing the civilian agenda. Poloff
asked whether the youths had been reaching out to other civil
sectors such as opposition political parties and the unions
in order to begin building broader civilian pressure.
Thierno dismissed the idea, saying that the opposition
political parties are supporting the constitutional process
and the succession of the President of the National Assembly,
Aboubacar Sompare. Thierno emphasized that the discussion is
currently only between the youth and the military. Poloff

CONAKRY 00000797 002 OF 002


encouraged him to reach out beyond the youths.


8. (U) The National Council of Civil Society Organizations
is reportedly planning to meet today to discuss the coup, but
it is unclear what their reaction might be.

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COMMENT
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9. (S) Available information suggests that although the 19th
promotion was behind the coup, other opportunist military
elements appear to have joined the initiative in order to
take advantage of Conte's death. These elements may have
gained the upper hand and it is unclear whether the 19th
promotion and the youth will be able to recover control. The
civilians have a critical role to play, but as of yet, their
reaction has been relatively quiet. The international
community can continue to stress the importance of civilian
control, but the civilians themselves have to step up and
demand it as well. Embassy will continue to reach out to
civilian leaders and express support for a civilian
controlled democratic process. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC