CIVILIAN PERSPECTIVE ON GUINEAN COUP D'ETAT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000788

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CIVILIAN PERSPECTIVE ON GUINEAN COUP D'ETAT

REF: CONAKRY 0787

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. The military coup launched by members of
the 19th promotion continues to evolve relatively
peacefully. Various civilian representatives reportedly
went to Camp Alpha Yaya to begin negotiating the details of
the anticipated transitional council. Civilian contacts
seem to be quietly criticizing the coup, but waiting to see
how things develop before taking any action. Conakry
remains calm with no reports of casualties. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) Members of the 19th promotion continue to carry out
a coup plot they launched early this morning after the
Guinean Government announced President Conte's death
(reftel). Embassy sources report that civilian leaders,
including unnamed representatives from the labor unions,
youth groups, and local businesses, went to Camp Alpha Yaya
this morning to begin negotiating with coup leaders
regarding the composition of the transitional council, now
called the National Council for Democracy and Development
(CNDD).


3. (S) Econ LES spoke with two prominent youth leaders,
Mouctar Diallo (head of a new youth political party) and
Dansa Kourouma (head of an NGO),this morning. Emphasizing
that he was speaking for himself and not for his
organization, Diallo said that he did not support a
military takeover of the government. Kourouma said that
civil society leaders planned to meet soon in order to
draft a public declaration. Speaking "off the record,"
Kourouma said that he would not support Sompare as the
constitutional successor to the president, pointing out
that his political mandate has expired. Kourouma added
that he supports the departure of the old guard in order to
make way for "new faces and new leadership." (COMMENT.
Both of these youth leaders were implicated in a failed
September youth movement that planned to force the
president's resignation. END COMMENT).


4. (SBU) Brief telephone conversations with opposition
political party leaders suggest that they are observing
events before deciding on a course of action. Jean Marie
Dore, head of the UPG (Union for Guinean Progress) told Pol
LES that he had been expecting a coup, but was surprised by
the speed in which it took place. Dore added that he does
not currently have an official reaction, and is observing
the situation. Dr. Diane, Secretary General of the RPG
(Rally for the Guinean People),essentially said the same
thing. Sidya Toure, leader of the UPR (Union for Progress
and Renewal) said that he is observing the situation, but
that "a coup d'etat was not the answer."


5. (SBU) Both Charge and DCM have been in contact with
various diplomatic missions, including the embassies of
Brazil, France, Spain, Russia, and the United Kingdom.
Diplomats also seem to be adopting a wait and see
approach. No one is currently considering evacuation of
personnel or dependents.


6. (S) An Embassy contact reported that the military had
stationed a tank near the entrance to the Conakry
international airport as a "precautionary measure."
Contact said that the tank was not blocking access to the
airport, and that the airport remained open. Later reports
indicated that soldiers backing the coup had gained control
of the airport and seaport, but that operations at both
ports continued as usual.


7. (S) Sources indicate that approximately 150 soldiers
sympathetic to the coup currently control what is commonly
known as "Kilometer 36," which is the main transportation
artery controlling access to and from the city of Conakry.


8. (S) Soldiers behind the coup told DATT that they had
arrested four generals earlier in the day (lowering the
number previously reported),but that they had released
them after the generals promised to bring back the
remaining generals. After departing, the generals
reportedly enlisted several bodyguards each. Members of
the 19th promotion told DATT that they are offering the
generals protection if they willingly come to Camp Alpha
Yaya. Later reports indicated that some generals had
elected to do exactly that.


9. (U) Multiple contacts have reported that the city of
Conakry remains quiet, even in the downtown area, although
there is a clear military presence. Most local businesses

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are closed. There has been some sporadic gunfire, but
Embassy has received no reports of casualties.

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COMMENT
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10. (S) The coup appears to have been well planned. The
immediate political transition seems to be progressing
peacefully, but that could change quickly if rival groups
begin to execute maneuvers to seize power. Civilians seem
to be publicly criticizing the coup even though they have
privately told Embassy officials in the past that they
would support such a move. Now that a coup has
materialized, they will likely look for opportunities to
insert themselves in the process during this critical
period in order to ensure that the transition is ultimately
shaped by civilians. END COMMENT.

RASPOLIC