Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CONAKRY777
2008-12-19 14:13:00
SECRET
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

REVISITING THE ELEMENTS OF INSTABILITY - AN

Tags:  PGOV PREL ASEC GV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2102
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0777/01 3541413
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 191413Z DEC 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3235
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000777 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: REVISITING THE ELEMENTS OF INSTABILITY - AN
ANALYSIS

REF: A. CONAKRY 0287

B. CONAKRY 0180

C. CONAKRY 0182

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000777

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: REVISITING THE ELEMENTS OF INSTABILITY - AN
ANALYSIS

REF: A. CONAKRY 0287

B. CONAKRY 0180

C. CONAKRY 0182

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) Guinea has been traversing a difficult political
transition for more than two years now. The country's
political situation is unstable and its future, uncertain.
Over the past year, Embassy has periodically submitted
analytical pieces assessing Guinea's ever-evolving political
and social environment, and anticipating potential transition
points (reftels). Since our last analysis in June, which was
written just after the military mutiny in May, there have
been several significant developments that suggest that we
may quickly be approaching a critical transition point.

--------------
CURRENT SOCIO-POLITICAL CONTEXT
--------------


2. (SBU) PRESIDENT'S HEALTH - Embassy reporting indicates
that President Conte's health has been in a relatively steady
decline for several months. He was reportedly on the verge
of death in September, but then recovered. He has been seen
publicly, but did not attend Guinea's national celebration of
50 years of independence in early October, nor the military's
50th birthday celebration in early November. Rumors of the
president's poor health and imminent death have peaked once
again this week, sparking widespread speculation in the press
and in the streets that a change of regime is just around the
corner.


3. (SBU) RETURN OF THE OLD GUARD - Since the May appointment
of the new prime minister, Ahmed Tidiane Souare, the Guinean
Government has quietly, but steadily, been bringing
presidential loyalists and "old guard" bureaucrats back into
government. These loyalists include the Minister Secretary
General of the presidency, Alpha Ibrahima Keira, a number of
ministers, and many high-level civil servants throughout the
government. Much of the population sees these appointments
as proof that nothing has changed, and that the government of
consensus they demanded in early 2007 essentially failed.


4. (S) ECONOMIC CRISIS - The Guinean Government appears to
be in an increasingly dire economic crisis. There is no
long-term budgetary planning in place, and the 2009 draft

budget, which is supposed to go into effect January 1, was
only recently turned over to the legislature for initial
review. It includes a planned budget defict of 5%. Various
societal sectors, including labor unions, the police, and the
military, have made significant financial demands that the
government has promised to meet in the near future. The
biggest obligation is expected to come due at the end of
January when the government must deliver on its promise to
provide substantial salary increases to military personnel.
The GoG has been focused on fulfilling the requirements to
meet the HIPC completion point, in order to take advantage of
some $2 billion in debt relief in the new year. Embassy has
been increasingly concerned that the GoG does not intend to
use this money in good faith, and may be counting on it to
keep its budget from collapsing. There are rumors that newly
printed cash will be dumped on the economy as a short-term
fix.


5. (S) GROWING MILITARY POWER - The military seems to be the
GoG's most powerful national institution. The State has been
completely ineffective in restoring discipline among the rank
and file soldiers, and essentially capitulates every time the
military makes a new demand. Discussions with high-level
government contacts suggest that the government is afraid of
the military and is at a loss as to how to control it.
Ethnic and generational differences within the military have
left the organization deeply divided, creating at least three
different factions competing for power and influence. We
know that one of these groups is plotting a coup d'etat, and
we expect that other groups may be doing so as well. The
general consensus among both military and civilian contacts
is that ultimately, the military will step in when the
president is removed from power, either by force or as a
result of his death. However, it is not clear who is in
charge of the military, and there are signs of factionalism
at all levels over ethnicity, rank, and connections to the
regime.


6. (S) WEAKENING OF THE STATE - The Guinean State may be at
its weakest point in history. Power is centralized in the
president, but the president's illness and general absence
from the political scene, means that the decision-making

CONAKRY 00000777 002 OF 003


process is null. There are many actors maneuvering behind
the scenes, but they are also fighting amongst themselves for
power and money, so that no one individual is clearly in
control. On a bilateral level, it is extremely difficult to
work with the Guinean Government because individual ministers
are fundamentally powerless to implement reforms, or to
commit to cooperative efforts. The government lacks any
long-term vision because no-one knows how long they are going
to be in office. Widespread allegations of corrupt behavior
suggest that many officials seem to simply be stuffing their
pockets while they have an opportunity to do so.

--------------
SCENARIOS
--------------


7. (S) In Reftel A, Embassy outlined a number of potential
scenarios that could play out as the anticipated political
transition continues to evolve. These scenarios remain
relevant.


8. (S) Much of our diplomatic efforts focus on the
importance of legislative elections. However, given the
mounting socio-political pressures in the near-term,
elections may end up being more of a long-term prospect.
There are four likely scenarios with respect to elections:
-- Credible legislative elections bring better government
-- Credible legislative elections bring minimal change
-- Fraudulent legislative elections bring more of the same
-- GoG continues to postpone legislative elections.
The steady return of old guard presidential loyalists and
continued delays in organizing elections suggests that the
first scenario may be difficult to achieve.


9. (S) The remaining scenarios focus on what may happen if
elections do not take place, if the president dies while in
office, and/or other elements force a political transition.
They include:
-- Death of the president sparks military take over
-- Elements of the military successfully execute a coup
d'etat
-- Mounting civilian pressure forces president to resign
-- Criminal elements influence events to favor continued
criminal activity, especially narco-trafficking

--------------
MILITARY INTERVENTION
--------------


10. (S) Available information and recent events suggest that
Guinea may be approaching the first or second scenario.
There is at least one group reportedly mobilized to implement
a coup. If this group deems Conte's health to be genuinely
in jeopardy, they may decide to wait him out and then take
action immediately after his death, or conversely, they may
decide to move more quickly in order to preempt a coup
attempt by competing military factions.


11. (S) Either of these scenarios comes with a heightened
potential for violence. The general sense in Guinea has been
that if violence erupts, it is likely to be relatively
short-lived, i.e. anywhere between a few days and a few
months. We expect plenty of actors will try to manipulate
the situation with ethnocentrism perhaps playing a major
role. At the same time, the Guinean population seems
generally weary of the country's continued political
uncertainty, and ready for some stability so that things can
begin to constructively move forward. Guineans also have a
reputation of distaste for conflict.


12. (S) Should the military intervene and successfully
restore order, civil society leaders are expected to push
hard for a civilian transitional government leading to
elections. If violence were to continue, civilians and
military alike might begin to cut deals in order to avoid a
protracted conflict, much as they did during the 2007 strike.
Political manipulations based on ethnic ties have become
increasingly potent tools in recent months, and it is likely
that ethnicity would play a similar role as actors work to
shape the transition period. Once the dust settles from any
military intervention, Guineans would likely look to the
international community and bilateral partners, especially
the United States, to help them move forward.

--------------
MORE OF THE SAME
--------------


13. (S) It is important to note that Guinea has been

CONAKRY 00000777 003 OF 003


balancing on a precipice for some time now. The political
situation is inherently volatile. We have seen escalation of
tensions before that have quietly died down a few days later.
We may be in yet another such period, but it is too early to
tell. The scenarios we submitted in June are still relevant
and provide a useful roadmap of the full range of possible
situations that could develop. Embassy officers have
repeatedly made clear that the USG would not support a
military coup or other extra-legal measures to topple the
government. Embassy continues to monitor the situation
closely, and to prepare accordingly through Emergency Action
Committee meetings.
RASPOLIC