GOSSIP FROM CAMP ALPHA YAYA - RUMORS ABOUT THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000773

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: GOSSIP FROM CAMP ALPHA YAYA - RUMORS ABOUT THE
PRESIDENT'S HEALTH

REF: A. CONAKRY 0290

B. CONAKRY 0662

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. A civilian contact at Camp Alpha Yaya says
people are speculating widely as to the state of President
Conte's health, and in some cases, asserting that he may
already be dead. Contact claims that the military has been
holding succession meetings at Camp Alpha Yaya. There have
also been extensive rumors and speculation in the local
press. However, other Embassy sources close to the president
report that Conte is alive. On a separate topic, contact
said that mutiny leader Claude Pivi's influence and standing
is waning. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On December 18, Poloff met with Yaya Diallo
(PROTECT),a civilian living at Camp Alpha Yaya who requested
the meeting in order to share information. This was the
third time Poloff had met with contact over a six month
period. Contact's motivations and credibility are unclear,
but he has contributed useful information in the past
(reftels).


3. (C) According to Diallo, Claude Pivi's (aka Coplan)
standing and influence have fallen considerably in recent
weeks. He said that Pivi used to have more than 80 soldiers
backing him, but is now down to just a handful, between four
and eight. Diallo said that the others "disappeared." When
Poloff asked if they had actually disappeared or just been
transferred to other bases, Diallo insisted that many of them
had disappeared, pointing out that family and friends had not
heard from them for some time. He cited a specific example
of a soldier personally known to him, named Bafaiye, who
disappeared some weeks ago.


4. (C) Referring to the Minister of Security's recent
announcement that persons driving vehicles with tinted
windows and/or no matriculation plates would be arrested,
Diallo said that Pivi's movements have become more
restricted. "That policy targets Pivi specifically since he
uses tinted windows and does not have vehicle plates," he
said. According to Diallo, Pivi has been forced to maintain
a lower profile because of the security policy and the
"disappearance" of loyal supporters.


5. (C) Turning to rampant rumors about the president's
declining health and possible death, Diallo said that he did
not know for sure if the president is still alive, but that
many people think that he may already have died. He
acknowledged recent public sightings of the president's
motorcade, but said that many people think the government is
just trying to make it look like the president is still
alive. "No one has actually seen the president for several
days," he said. Referring to a recent television statement
by the Minister of Communication, Tibou Kamara, Diallo said
that Kamara was purposely ambivalent in his comments. "He
did not say that the president was well or that he was dead,
only that the government continues to function under the
president's orders, and that they will continue to keep the
population apprised as to Conte's health condition," Diallo
told Poloff.


6. (C) In addition, Diallo said that he had heard from
several sources that a Dr. Cisse had been urgently called to
the president's side on Monday. He said that he had heard
that the president had fallen down and then descended into a
"profound" coma.



7. (C) Diallo said that Camp Alpha Yaya has been in a state
of "chaos and panic" for the past few days, and that there
have been military meetings regarding a possible successor to
the president. When asked whether any names had been
discussed, Diallo said that people have not been talking
about what has been going on inside the meetings. However,
he said that the military is liaising closely with the
Minister Secretary General of the Presidency, Alpha Ibrahima
Keira. Diallo added that it is almost certain that they will
pick a military person to take over, and that Keira will
likely back that person.


8. (C) On a side note, Diallo said that President Conte had
recently taken a fifth wife who is 16 years of age.
According to Diallo, General Sampil was grateful to Conte
after the military mutiny since Conte intervened when Sampil
was being held hostage by the mutineers. To return the
favor, Sampil reportedly gave a young female relative to
Conte as a gift. Diallo said that the fifth wife resides in

CONAKRY 00000773 002 OF 002


the village and takes care of the president when he is there.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Much of Diallo's information is basically gossip, but
Embassy has been hearing similar reports from other sources,
which could either lend credence or simply reflect the power
of Guinea's rumor mill. We have heard from multiple sources
that there have been closed meetings to discuss a potential
successor. A generally reliable internet news site
(aminata.com) reported on December 18 that the president's
Chief of Protocol traveled to the United States to bring back
Conte's children while separate envoys went to France,
Morocco, and London for the same purpose.


10. (SBU) Another news site (Guinee24.com) reported that
soldiers at Camp Alpha Yaya demanded that the government
"show them their general" before December 17, and threatened
to go to Camp Samory Toure to verify his status themselves.
DATT visited Camp Samory Toure on December 17 and saw the
president's motorcade parked on the base, although he did not
see the president. Some areas of the camp were cordoned off
and under heavy security, which was unusual. The Minister of
Communication's announcement on December 16, assuring the
population of the president's health, was also unusual.
Embassy is not aware of the government doing this previously,
despite similar rumors of the president's declining health.


11. (C) Rumors regarding Conte's health and possible death
are a frequent occurrence in Guinea, and have so far proven
false. It is as yet unclear whether the same holds true this
time around. Sources close to the president report that
Conte is alive. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC