GOG PUSHES ELECTIONS TO END OF MAY, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000768

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: GOG PUSHES ELECTIONS TO END OF MAY, 2009


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. During a hastily convened meeting
with the donor community, Prime Minister Souare seemed
eager to convince the international community of the
GoG?s commitment to hold legislative elections as soon as
possible. At the same time, the GoG distributed a draft
elections planning timetable, which listed May 31 as the
new election date. A heated inter-ministerial discussion
suggests that financing issues continue to be a major
stumbling block, although the PM assured the
international community that the GoG would find the money
to advance the electoral process. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The Guinean Government?s election steering
committee summoned the diplomatic corps to a late
afternoon meeting on short notice Friday, December 12, to
explain recent electoral developments. Starting nearly
90 minutes late, the meeting lasted for several hours.
France, the EU, Spain, Japan, ECOWAS and the UN were
present. USAID Director represented the USG. Prime
Minister Souare led the Guinean delegation which
consisted of many ministers, perhaps most of the cabinet,
including Finance, Reconciliation, Justice, Territorial
Affairs, Decentralization, and Planning and Cooperation.

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MAY 31 NOW THE TARGET DATE FOR ELECTIONS
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3. (SBU) According to the Minister of Territorial
Administration and Political Affairs (MATAP),most of the
voter registration units (CARLES) are up and running, but
there are still many districts that are not yet
operational. The minister orally provided the group with
detailed data on voter registration, but did not provide
the diplomatic corps with copies of the report. A
representative from the GoG?s specialized team managing
the voter registration process, which meets frequently
and includes representatives of all major election
donors, passed out an elections planning timetable that
showed May 31 as elections day. (COMMENT. Guinee24.com
reported on December 16 that the MATAP Minister had
publicly announced the GoG?s intent to hold elections on
May 31. END COMMENT).



4. (SBU) The French Ambassador asked if the proposed
timetable had accounted for the additional time needed to
resolve the problems previously detailed by the MATAP
Minister. The answer was yes. However, in response to a
question from the Minister of Decentralization, the GoG
acknowledged that it had not included the cost of
registering Guineans abroad in its most recent budget
projections. The GoG noted that the political parties
were insisting that some 40 countries be included in this
effort, but that MATAP and the National Independent
Electoral Commission (CENI) had proposed only 18,
admitting that the issue had not yet been resolved.

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MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
--------------


5. (SBU) The government representatives then started
arguing among themselves over whether or not the GoG
would be able to come up with the additional resources
needed to fill the 2008 elections budget gap, which is
some 14 billion Guinean francs, i.e., about $3 million
USD. The Prime Minister emphasized that the elections
were the GoG?s absolute top priority, by direct order of
President Conte. The PM added that he was personally
involving himself in the process and would be meeting
with the MATAP and CENI daily to ensure implementation.


6. (SBU) However, the Finance Minister said that without
some extraordinary revenue receipts in December, the GoG
would not be able to financially commit to several
crucial steps scheduled in the coming weeks. The PM
hinted pointedly several times that he was hoping for
some donors to step forward with additional resources;
none of the diplomatic representatives indicated that
they would. At one point, the UN coordinator suggested
that they knock on other doors, such as Canada, pointing
out that many donors were not represented at the meeting.
The EU representative confirmed the EU?s ?political
promise? to fill the 2009 gap, with some 6 million euros,
but said she did not have the means to disburse any of
these funds in advance.


7. (SBU) After much discussion, the Prime Minister said
that he would find a way to allow the Ministry of Finance

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to make immediate commitments (thus booking the
liability, despite lack of extraordinary receipts) for
delivery of items that would not, in any event, require
payments to be made until 2009. The CENI President,
however, said that if the data operators and CARLES
members were not paid in cash in December, implementation
would be jeopardized.

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NO QUESTION OF COMMITMENT
--------------


8. (SBU) The Prime Minister wrapped up the meeting by
asking if anyone in the room had any doubt over the GoG?s
commitment to and prioritization of these elections. The
EU and France spoke up, saying that while they were
encouraged by the effort, it was important that the
finance law be respected. The Finance Minister, at the
PM?s request, went to pains to assure everyone that,
whatever they did, it would be legal.

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COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) As has been the case with similar GoG elections
meetings, the December 12 meeting was poorly organized
and raised a number of concerns within the donor
community. Despite the GoG?s repeated assurances of its
commitment to elections in the near term, issues raised
during the meeting suggest that there are still several
challenges to be overcome. The PM put on a good show of
intent, and the gathered GoG representatives seemed
sincere in their intent to hold to the May 31 date,
provided the funding can be assured. However, financing
continues to be a major stumbling block.


10. (SBU) PM Souare seemed uncharacteristically forceful
throughout the meeting, often interrupting his Ministers
and at one point pointedly denying permission for the
Minister of Territorial Administration to begin speaking,
after hearing the perfunctory ?with your permission Mr.
Prime Minister.? He seems to have grown a bit more
comfortable in his leadership shoes over the last several
months. END COMMENT.

RASPOLIC