BUSINESS (AND POLITICS) AS USUAL IN GUINEA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000074

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON ELAB PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: BUSINESS (AND POLITICS) AS USUAL IN GUINEA

REF: A. CONAKRY 0064


B. CONAKRY 0023

C. CONAKRY 0162

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The 62% increase in fuel prices earlier this week
appears to have generally been peacefully accepted by the
population, at least so far. On the political side, bits and
pieces of Guinea's political puzzle continue to develop. END
SUMMARY.

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POPULATION RELATIVELY QUIET ON FUEL PRICE INCREASE
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2. (U) Guineans appear to going about business as usual this
week despite changes to the government's petroleum subsidy
program that caused fuel prices to jump by 62% on April 1
(reftel). After a few isolated demonstrations on Tuesday,
largely precipitated by students, the city has been quiet.
As of Wednesday, most of Guinea's students were on an
official spring break, thanks to a late evening government
declaration on national television and radio on April 1. By
Wednesday, traffic patterns had appeared to return to normal,
aside from the generally reduced circulation due to school
being out of session. Union leader Mme Serah Rabiatou Diallo
did several radio spots early in the week urging people to be
patient with the higher prices, pointing out that the fuel
subsidy was unsustainable given world oil prices.


3. (SBU) Towards the end of week, there were lines of cars
queued up at some of the local gas stations. Gas Bureau
Chief Yaya Diallo told Econoff that many of the stations had
not actually bought supplies since the price increase, which
means that they may have been running short on fuel.
However, he said that stations started replenishing their
supplies on April 4. Diallo also said that the supply tanker
arrived on schedule, but was only carrying diesel. Another
tanker carrying regular gas is reportedly expected April 5.

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POLITICS AS USUAL
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4. (SBU) President Conte has reportedly returned to his home
in the village due to the death of his nephew, who was killed
on April 2 when he was shot to death outside his home.
Nephew Conte (name unknown) was a lieutenant in the
gendarmerie and the oldest son of one of the president's
elder sisters (same mother, same father). According to
police sources, Nephew Conte was at home when he heard his
neighbors cry for help as they were being attacked by
bandits. He reportedly came out, unarmed, and was shot by
the bandits. Both the gendarmes and the police are
investigating the case.


5. (U) April 3 was a national holiday in honor of Guinea's
second republic, which was established under President Conte.
Prime Minister Kouyate presided over a commemorative
ceremony in the capital. President Conte did not make any
public appearances, but he may have already been on his way
back to the village.


6. (SBU) The local press reported a violent disagreement
between union leaders in Boke, apparently over leadership
issues. The dispute was between local representatives of the
Union of Guinean Workers (USTG) and the Confederation of
Unionized Guinean Workers (CNTG). Details are sketchy so
far, but local authorities confirm that a disagreement took
place and that several people were injured.


7. (U) The Chantal Colle Affair (reftel B) continues to fuel
Guinea's rumor mill. A few recent press reports have
indicated that Colle may return to Guinea soon, under the
explicit order of the president. The Embassy has not seen
any concrete evidence to support these claims.


8. (SBU) The new controversial director of the National
Communications Commission (CNC),Tibou Kamara (Reftel C,
addressed an official letter to the Minister of
Communications regarding who the government should recognize
as the official head of the Patronat, an organized
association of Guinean businesses. As written, the letter
suggests that Kamara is supporting controversial millionaire
Mamadou Syllah, although Kamara told PAO that this is not the

CONAKRY 00000074 002 OF 002


case. Although the CNC is technically a regulatory body,
Kamara may be weighing in on the Patronat issue in order to
direct the national radio and television media to recognize
only one Patronat so as to avoid public confusion.

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COMMENT
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9. (SBU) Guinea's socio-political situation remains much the
same as it has for the past few months. The population's
reaction to the long-anticipated fuel price increase has
almost been a non-event, although the timely release of
students to spring break may have temporarily muted a
potentially volatile response. On other fronts, bits and
pieces of Guinea's political puzzle continue to emerge.
These developments may be completely unrelated, but taken
together, they help add dimension to a complex political
dynamic. END COMMENT.
CARTER