YOUTH TRY TO REGROUP TO ORGANIZE CIVIL MOVEMENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000739

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: YOUTH TRY TO REGROUP TO ORGANIZE CIVIL MOVEMENT

REF: A. CONAKRY 0520

B. CONAKRY 0525

C. CONAKRY 0538

D. CONAKRY 0565

E. CONAKRY 0568

F. CONAKRY 0588

G. CONAKRY 0620

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. After failing to organize a mass youth
movement in September and then turning to military elements
to plot a coup d'etat, a local youth leader says he is now
back to bringing youths together to force President Conte out
of office. Contact expressed concerns that the military may
not be willing to cede power to a civilian government after
seizing it by force. Although still working with the
military, contact is now looking to gather at least 5000
youth supporters before the end of the year in order to
launch a peaceful, civil movement in January. A mass youth
movement could be a potent political mechanism for change,
but persistent divisions among various players may be
difficult to overcome. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) Local youth leader Thierno Balde met with Poloff on
December 5 to discuss recent progress towards achieving his
agenda for a peaceful political transition. Balde had
initially met with Poloff in September when he was working
with a core group of youth leaders to organize a peaceful
movement to force President Conte out of office. When the
movement fell apart due to ethnic divisions and other
tensions, Thierno turned to the military and started
collaborating on a coup plot. Returning to Guinea after
completing a master's degree at Stanford University a few
years ago, Thierno has been a very active player in Guinean
civil society. He is currently working on a Ph.D in law from
Columbia University. He has tried to cultivate close ties
with the U.S. Embassy, and meets regularly with both Poloff
and the DATT.


3. (S) Thierno told Poloff that he and other youth leaders
are increasingly worried about the military, and concerned
that potential coup leaders may not be willing to cede power
once they seize it. As such, Thierno said that he is trying
to regroup and once again bring youth actors together for a
peaceful, civil movement.


4. (S) Acknowledging that his strategy failed the first time
around, he said that ethnic manipulations are the biggest
threat to a cohesive movement. At the same time, Thierno
seemed optimistic about his ability to overcome this
challenge. "We have to make everyone understand from the
beginning what it is we are trying to do," he said, adding
"we will tell everyone to go ahead and take whatever money is
offered and then use it to advance our own objectives."
Thierno commented that the unions were able to successfully
organize a mass movement in 2007 despite ethnic issues and
clear differences of opinion between union leaders Dr.
Ibrahima Fofana and Sera Rabiatou Diallo. "We have to pull
people together in the same way," he said.


5. (S) Thierno claimed to be in contact with a prominent,
unnamed youth leader in Kankan (Upper Guinea) who had already
mobilized 200 youths eager to support a peaceful movement.
Thierno said that he and other Conakry-based youth leaders
are actively recruiting supporters in the capital area with
the goal of gathering more than 5,000 youths before the end
of the year. He emphasized that his strategy is
fundamentally different this time around in that they do not
plan to have a core group of leaders like they did the last
time. According to Thierno, singling out specific youths as
the core leaders facilitated ethnic manipulations by outside
political actors. "We will all be on an equal playing field
this time, so even if we lose a few supporters, it won't mean
that we lose big groups of people," he said.


6. (S) When asked on what premise the group plans to
organize, Thierno said that the movement will launch with a
general demand for better job opportunities, reduced
corruption, and the creation of a youth employment fund to be
managed by youths. Thierno said that the government will not
be able to meet the youths' demands, which will give the
group the momentum needed to stage demonstrations. According
to Thierno, the movement would eventually force President
Conte to resign.


7. (S) Thierno emphasized that the movement is intended to
be peaceful. He likened it to the recent protests in
Thailand that shut down the airport in Bangkok. "We will
either do something like that, a quiet sit-in, or call for a

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ville morte (where everyone would stay home)," he said.


8. (S) Poloff asked about the possibility of military or
police intervention to restore order. Thierno said that he
remains in touch with various military elements and is trying
to convince them to hold off on any coup attempts in the
immediate term. He said that "some are willing to intervene
on our behalf once the movement starts," adding, "it will be
much easier for them to justify their actions if a grassroots
movement has already started." Thierno said he is still
considering options, but plans to either pursue this line of
reasoning, or ask the military to simply refrain from
reacting at all.

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COMMENT
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9. (S) Thierno seems to have come full circle in his
strategic thinking, essentially coming back to where he
started by trying to organize a mass civil movement of youths
in order to force the current government out. He is clearly
wary of the military and no longer certain that a military
coup would bring optimal results, although he still seems to
see some kind of military intervention as a viable option.


10. (S) Thierno's approach appeared more balanced and
realistic, although perhaps idealistic, as opposed to his
more zealous fervor just a few months ago. He still wants to
play a big role, but he seems to lack the type of leadership
qualities that tend to bring people together, such as
charisma, which means that he will still have to convince
other prominent youth leaders to join his team if he wants to
attract big numbers of followers. Ethnicity remains a major
divise element that he has been unable to successfully
address to date. A mass youth movement for political change
is certainly within the realm of possibility, but it is as
yet unclear whether Thierno is capable of pulling one
together. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC