MINISTER PROVIDES INSIGHTS ON POLITICAL STABILITY,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000726

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: MINISTER PROVIDES INSIGHTS ON POLITICAL STABILITY,
HUMAN RIGHTS, AND THE MILITARY

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. A candid discussion with the Minister of
Reconciliation suggests that the Guinean Government is afraid
of its military and attempting to appease soldiers at all
costs in order to avoid a military takeover. The Minister
privately acknowledged that the government does not intend to
investigate any recent human rights abuses, although the
state accepts responsibility for such crimes, and is
compensating victims. According to the minister, the
government is counting on debt relief and legislative
elections to provide political and economic stability in the
near-term. Repeatedly referring to the fragility of the
state, the minister pleaded for international assistance in
order to avoid a "complete political implosion." END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Poloff met with the Guinean Minister of National
Reconciliation, Oury Bah, on November 26. Bah is one of
three members of the political opposition serving in a
ministerial position. He is considered the second in command
of the Union Force Democratic Guinean (UFDG) party, which is
headed by former prime minister Cellou Diallo. This meeting
was Poloff's first discussion with Bah since he was appointed
minister, although she had met with him several times before
he accepted his new post. The Ministry of Reconciliation is
a new agency that Prime Minister Souare created in May.
Since his appointment, Minister Bah has been very busy making
numerous public appearances and organizing various
"reconciliation" ceremonies.

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WE ARE THE GOVERNMENT OF CHANGE
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3. (S) According to Minister Bah, Souare's government is the
government of change that the Guinean people violently
demanded in early 2007. He told Poloff that 2007 represented
a socio-political revolution that irrevocably demonstrated
how Guineans could unify to force political change. Bah said
that former prime minister Kouyate betrayed and disappointed
the population when he reverted to the traditional political
games of the old regime. "There was a certain euphoria in
2007 and people essentially gave Kouyate a blank check to do
whatever he wanted...since he let them down, the population
has become even more critical of the government," he said.
For Bah, this heightened criticism, in the form of protests
and labor strike activity, demonstrates that the government
is open to change, and that the population is ensuring that
the government is responsive.


4. (S) Bah added that the postponed legislative elections
are another indicator of change. "We are heading towards
elections in a political environment that is fundamentally
different," he said. According to Bah, the ruling Party for
Unity and Progress (PUP) is no longer able to steal
elections. In the same breath, he dismissed the other
leading opposition parties as small players, essentially
implying that the UFDG would emerge as the clear front-runner
when elections finally take place. At the same time, Bah
cautioned that certain individuals, especially within the
president's entourage, want to retard the electoral process
and are actively trying to create insecurity in order to
cause further delays. "Fundamentally, this government is
absolutely committed to fair elections," he said.


5. (S) Another indicator of the government's commitment to
change, Bah told Poloff, is the fact that the government
created a ministry of reconciliation. "I say this not just
because I am part of it, but because national reconciliation
is a key component of our strategy," he said. He pointed out
that the government has never before assumed responsibility
for past human rights violations, which the government is now
doing. "We are acknowledging the state's responsibility for
the events of the last fifty years, and offering recognition
and compensation to victims."

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THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE, NOT THE INDIVIDUAL
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6. (S) Poloff acknowledged the recent spate of activities
aimed at victims, but asked how the government intends to
address the alleged perpetrators of these abuses. In
response, the minister emphasized that "the state assumes
responsibility for all." When pressed, he admitted that the
government does not plan to hold any individuals responsible,
emphasizing that the state committed the crimes and as such,
the state is compensating the victims. Bah acknowledged that

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this approach would likely be unacceptable to the
international community, but said that the state is extremely
fragile and must focus its energies on bigger priorities,
namely political stability and national cohesion.


7. (S) Poloff underscored the importance of investigating
the human rights abuses allegedly committed by security
forces in early 2007. Bah agreed, saying "in reality, we
know everything about 2007, and justice will be served by
making reparations to victims and their families." When
Poloff said that the USG fundamentally disagreed on this
point, Bah laughed and then questioned the utility of
proceeding with investigations in the current environment.
"What's the point of a human rights commission right now?,"
he asked, "the justice system does not work, the military
carries kalishnikovs...we are better off reinforcing our
democratic institutions and then perhaps considering
investigating these abuses ten or fifteen years in the
future."


8. (S) Bah admitted that the government could not publicly
acknowledge this approach. He compared Guinea's situation to
that of Spain under Francisco Franco, pointing out that Spain
eventually granted widespread amnesty. Bah said that Guinea
does not want to go that far, but does want the international
community to understand that the reparations currently being
offered by the government demonstrate the state's acceptance
of its responsibility, and its intent to deal with the
situation. He then emphasized "We are not doing this
(reconciliation) to satisfy the international community, but
because it is necessary for our future peace and
development...we want the next 50 years to be different."

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FORCES HOSTILE TO CHANGE
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9. (S) Throughout the discussion, Bah repeatedly mentioned
the military as the government's biggest challenge. At one
point he referred to the military as "certain autonomous
forces," and later as "the forces hostile to change." He
said that the military situation is unclear and that the
government "cannot risk antagonizing this group." With
respect to human rights abuses, Bah made it clear that fear
of antagonizing the military was a key consideration in
deciding to postpone investigations into recent events. "The
most important issue now is stability...we must proceed very
carefully...the state is fragile," he said.


10. (S) Poloff commented that Guinea's security situation
appears to be deteriorating; pointing to a number of recent
examples of criminal activity allegedly committed by men in
military uniforms, and questioned whether the government's
refusal to investigate various human rights abuses reinforces
the continued air of impunity among security forces. Bah
agreed, saying that the minister of security told him that
more than 60% of recent crimes were committed by uniformed
individuals. He did not have an answer as to how the
government could effectively control the problem, but said
that the minister of security is working hard to come up with
a solution.

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ELECTIONS ARE THE KEY
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11. (S) According to Minister Bah, the solution to Guinea's
political crisis lies in transparent, credible elections. He
said that it is absolutely critical for the government to
establish a strong democratic base and reinforce key
republican institutions in order to more effectively address
its immediate problems. Throughout the discussion, Bah
repeatedly said that the government cannot control the
military until it successfully holds elections. He alluded
to the threat of a coup d'etat and implied that without
elections, the military may have widespread support for such
a move. "In a battle that is not out in the open, do we want
classic justice at the risk of instability?," he asked, "it
is better for us to establish a strong democratic base and
then move forward to effectively neutralize the forces
hostile to change."

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WITHOUT INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE, GUINEA WILL IMPLODE
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12. (S) As the meeting drew to a close, the minister made an
impassioned plea for continued international assistance. He
said that the government absolutely needs money, especially

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the significant debt relief that is anticipated to come when
Guinea reaches the World Bank's HIPC completion point. "If
we don't get it (HIPC),we will have chronic
instability...without international help, this country will
implode," he said. Bah pointed to the country's rapidly
growing problem with narcotics trafficking and the general
threat of broader instability in the West African region
should Guinea be unable to effectively address its internal
political and economic problems. "Don't abandon us, the risk
is too big," he said.

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COMMENT
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13. (S) Bah was articulate and honest in his comments. As a
member of the political opposition, albeit with close ties to
the current prime minister, Bah's perspective is particularly
insightful. He gave the impression that the government is
afraid of its military and has no real strategy for getting
it under control, other than holding legislative elections.
The subtle threat of an imminent coup d'etat appeared to be
an overriding concern that has the government focused on
doing everything it can to appease the military in the
short-term. Bah repeatedly referred to the fragility and the
weakness of the state, which he followed with references to
an "autonomous military." The government's decision to back
off of human rights investigations appears to be a tactic to
appease the military while the official reparations to
victims is a tactic to appease the general population. Bah's
comments suggest that the Guinean Government is barely
holding things together. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC