GOG NEGOTIATING WITH LABOR UNIONS TO END CIVIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000678

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ASEC PGOV ELAB GV
SUBJECT: GOG NEGOTIATING WITH LABOR UNIONS TO END CIVIL
PROTESTS

REF: A. CONAKRY 0663

B. CONAKRY 0668

C. CONAKRY 0670

D. CONAKRY 0675


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Several ministers and members of the
National Assembly met with union leaders last night in an
attempt to negotiate an end to the civil disturbances that
have crippled the capital since November 2. Negotiations are
expected to continue today. The union leaders are willing to
talk, but have emphasized that they are in no way connected
to the protestors. Both GoG and union contacts have
acknowledged that there is very little room to negotiate the
fixed fuel price, raising questions about what both parties
realistically expect to achieve. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Over a national broadcast yesterday evening, the
Minister of Communication encouraged Guineans to remain calm,
assuring citizens that the GoG has already started
negotiating with the national labor unions in order to
resolve the current crisis, which is related to a government
fixed fuel price (reftels).


3. (SBU) Dr. Ibrahima Fofana, co-chair of the
unions-intersyndicale, confirmed that union leaders had met
with GoG officials yesterday night, including the ministers
of security, commerce, finance, national reconciliation,
justice, and cooperation. The President of the National
Assembly, Aboubacar Sompare, and a number of National
Assembly deputies also participated. A local internet news
site (guineenews.org) reported that Sompare refused to let
members of the press cover the meeting. Dr. Fofana told Pol
LES that the meeting is expected to continue today.


4. (SBU) According to the Secretary General of the Ministry
of Commerce, the GoG is not actually negotiating the price of
fuel, but rather, attempting to explain the GoG's position to
the labor unions. Contact told Econ LES that the population
does not understand the fact that the Guinean Government
simply cannot afford to support a large fuel subsidy. He
said that the GoG is trying to explain the facts.


5. (SBU) Dr. Fofana emphasized that the labor unions did not
organize the current protests, and that they are not
supporting the protestors. However, he told Pol LES that the
unions want to help resolve the issue. (COMMENT. The unions
were opposed to the initial price change in April and have
been pressuring the government to bring the price back down.
END COMMENT).


6. (SBU) According to Dr. Fofana, the unions plan to make an
official recommendation to the government during today's
meeting, but he could not specify what that recommendation
might be. He noted that union members across the country are
demanding lower fuel prices and have indicated to union
leaders that they will not accept the current price of 5,500
GnF per liter. However, Dr. Fofana noted that he had
contacted union leaders in neighboring Senegal, Mali, and
Cote d'Ivoire and discovered that Guinea's gas is still the
cheapest in the region, even at the 5,500 GnF mark. He
claimed that local inflation and reduced purchasing power
make the price untenable in Guinea. Still, Dr. Fofana
acknowledged that the unions do not have much bargaining room
with the government since the price is already relatively
low.


7. (SBU) A high-level contact at the Ministry of Defense
told DATT that the situation may be more complex than it
appears. He said that the fuel companies, gas stations
located up country, and fuel transporters are subtly
interfering in the negotiations, and possibly encouraging the
demonstrations. According to contact, these parties are
trying to force the government to push the price of fuel even
lower so that they can reap big profits when they sell
Guinea's much cheaper fuel at higher prices in neighboring
countries. (COMMENT. Before the GoG reduced the fuel
subsidy in April, raising the price from 4,300 GnF to 7,000
GnF, significant quantities of fuel were reportedly being
smuggled out of the country. After the price increase,
demand for fuel immediately dropped by 30%. Before the price
increase, the town of Siguiri, a town of 50,000 residents
located on Guinea's border with Mali, was consuming as much
fuel as Conakry, a city of 2 million, suggesting significant
smuggling activity. END COMMENT).


8. (SBU) The Ministry of Defense contact also noted that
there are several fuel supply ships waiting offshore at the
port of Conakry, but that the ships are likely going to

CONAKRY 00000678 002 OF 002


depart without offloading their cargo. Contact said that the
port has a limited capacity to store fuel, and the lack of
movement of fuel over the past few days means that the GoG
does not have anywhere to put the new shipment. In addition,
contact said that Guinea's fuel suppliers are hesitant to
offload because they are not confident that the GoG will
actually be able to pay for what they have ordered.

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COMMENT
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9. (SBU) The fact that the GoG is negotiating with the
unions is interesting in that the unions are claiming that
they are not directly involved in the actual protests. Since
no one has emerged as an interlocutor who can speak on behalf
of the protestors, the GoG may simply be looking for someone
with whom they can "negotiate." At the same time, the
government does not have any room to negotiate. Economic
contacts are already questioning whether the GoG can continue
to support the subsidy at the current price of 5,500 GnF, and
have emphasized that pushing the price any lower will
essentially break the bank. The GoG made similar statements
about funds for paying the military bonuses during the May
military mutiny, but then quickly came up with the money as
the situation deteriorated. Econ LES commented that the
government may just be posturing, i.e. trying to look like it
is responding without any expectation of actually doing
something. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC