OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS END OF REGIME IS IMMINENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000614

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PMIL PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS END OF REGIME IS IMMINENT

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. Opposition leader Sidya Toure told Poloff
that the end of Conte,s regime is imminent, whether through
his death or a military takeover. In either case, he said he
was certain that some sort of military transition is in
Guinea,s future. Sidya said he and other opposition party
leaders are unofficially reaching out to junior military
officers in order to make sure that they understand that such
a transition must lead to democracy and elections. Several
of Sidya,s comments suggest that he may be well informed of
a coup plot currently being organized by a core group of
junior military officers. END SUMMARY.

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OF THIS, I HAVE NO DOUBT
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2. (S) Poloff met with UFR (Union Force Republican)
opposition leader and former Prime Minister Sidya Toure on
October 17. When asked about Guinea,s current political
situation, Sidya told Poloff &there are four things of which
I have absolutely no doubt: Conte,s regime is taking this
country nowhere, Conte is in terrible health and the end of
his regime is imminent, this government has no interest in
organizing elections, and the military will ultimately take
power.8

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COUP MUST COME FROM THE INTELLECTUALS
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3. (S) Despite his conviction that some type of military
transition would emerge, Sidya said that the military is a
worrisome institution at this point. He referred to May
military mutiny leader Claude Pivi (aka Coplan) as a typical
example of the undisciplined, poorly educated rank and file
soldiers that have been recruited in recent years. He said
that he has been supportive of the idea of a coup for some
time, and was hoping for something similar to the coup in
Mali. However, after the military mutiny, Sidya said he was
talking with the former president of Mali, Konari, who he
considers a close friend. According to Sidya, Konari told
him that the level of education among the mutineers was low,
and that a coup organized by such soldiers would be a very
bad thing.


4. (S) Sidya told Poloff that a coup is still the best
option. He said that transparent elections are unlikely in
the current political climate, and that the constitutional
process is no longer relevant. He added that a coup may not
even be necessary if Conte should happen to die while in
office, but that a military transition is a certainty.
However, Sidya emphasized that a military transitional
government require seasoned, disciplined officers. &We need
people with education; we need the junior officers who are
more intellectual.8 When asked if he had reached out to the
military, Sidya said ¬ officially no, but we are making
sure they understand what the transition needs to look
like.8 Sidya said that although many people support the
idea of a coup d,etat, they do not want another military
regime.

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DEMOCRACY MUST FOLLOW
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5. (S) According to Sidya, opposition party leaders have
been meeting behind closed doors to discuss an eventual
transition. He emphasized that the government and the ruling
party have not been informed of these meetings, the last of
which was just held on October 16. &We have to make sure
that the military understands exactly what needs to happen
here,8 Sidya said. He added that he and others are advising
the military that the international community will
automatically condemn a coup. &The trick is for them to do
the coup and then start turning things over to civilians as
early as possible, and move towards organizing elections, in
order to minimize international criticism; that is our
message,8 Sidya said. &In addition, we need to make sure
they understand that any military transition leader would be
absolutely unacceptable as a political candidate when
elections are finally organized,8 he added.


6. (S) In response to a question about youth activities in
the civilian sector, Sidya said that the youths have the
right idea, but are poorly positioned to achieve their
objectives. He pointed out that there were twice as many
deaths during the 2007 strikes in Guinea than there were
during the 1991 military coup in Mali, but that Mali

CONAKRY 00000614 002 OF 002


ultimately succeed where Guinea failed. Sidya said that
civil demonstrations are not a viable solution, because some
degree of force is necessary. &That is why we are talking
to the young military officers,8 he said.

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NEIGHBORS CONCERNED
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7. (S) Sidya mentioned that he had recently talked with some
of his close friends from Senegal and Cote d,Ivoire during
Guinea,s celebration of 50 years of independence, including
several unnamed current and foreign ministers. According to
Sidya, a Senegalese minister told him that Senegalese
President Wade was deeply worried about the political
situation in Guinea, and considered it &highly explosive.8
Sidya said that his Ivoirian contacts echoed the same
sentiment.

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WE NEED YOUR HELP
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8. (S) Poloff emphasized that the U.S. Government would not
support a coup d,etat, repeating comments made to Sidya in
previous meetings. Sidya said &I know you cannot support a
coup, but we hope that you can help us afterwards because
that is when we are really going to need the help.8 Poloff
told him that the USG is interested in supporting democracy
and ultimately, elections in Guinea. Sidya replied,
&exactly, we want the same thing.8

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CHINESE REACHING OUT
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9. (S) Before the meeting ended, Sidya mentioned that he and
other key opposition party leaders had attended a meeting
hosted by the Chinese Ambassador the evening of October 16.
&It was the first time that the Chinese have ever expressed
an interest in meeting with us,8 he said. According to
Sidya, the Chinese economic and political assistants were
also present, although he said he expected they probably
played a &different role8 within the Embassy. Sidya said
that the Chinese were very interested in getting opposition
leaders, perspective on Guinea,s current political
situation, and especially whether or not the current regime
is likely to continue. &They were very preoccupied with
what is going on, and it was unusual because they have never
talked to us before,8 he told Poloff.

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COMMENT
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10. (S) As usual, Sidya was direct in his speech and seemed
to speak freely, joking &I always tell you exactly what I am
thinking.8 Sidya,s advocacy for a coup is not new. He
made it clear that he is not directly involved in any coup
plot, but that he is communicating with those individuals who
might be thinking about organizing one. The fact that
several of his comments resonate closely with some that we
have highlighted in more sensitive reporting suggests that
Sidya is probably well informed of the current coup plot
being organized by junior officers of the &19th promotion,8
and may even be communicating with select officers.


11. (S) The Chinese meeting with the opposition party
leaders may be significant given that sensitive reporting has
recently indicated that the Chinese may be very concerned
about the current political situation. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC