JUNIOR OFFICERS PLOT MILITARY COUP D,ETAT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000568

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: JUNIOR OFFICERS PLOT MILITARY COUP D,ETAT

REF: CONAKRY 0520

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. A core group of junior military officers,
under the leadership of Major &Idi Amin8 Camara told the
DATT that they are planning to orchestrate a bloodless coup
in the coming weeks. Claiming to be working closely with
various youth leaders as well as the leader of the May
military mutiny, Claude Pivi (aka Coplan),the group plans to
overthrow the current regime in order to install a
transitional civilian government leading to presidential
elections. The coup plotters appear to have a specific,
detailed strategy in place for initially seizing control, but
were much more vague about how the transitional government
would work. Contacts emphasized that they will be looking to
the international community for assistance in navigating a
post-Conte transition. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) A core group of junior military officers met with the
DATT on September 26 to advise the USG of their plans to
orchestrate a bloodless coup d,etat in the coming weeks.
The officers are part of the &19th promotion,8 an elite and
well respected corps of university educated officers that
entered into service approximately 15 years ago, which also
includes some police and civil servants. The group claimed
that a gendarme officer known as Commander Aboubacar Sidiki
Camara (rank equivalent to major),nicknamed &Idi Amin,8 is
leading the initiative. Major Camara did not attend the
meeting since the GoG,s intelligence service reportedly
keeps him under surveillance.


3. (S) Sources told DATT that they wanted to keep the USG
advised of their intent so as to avoid surprises, but that
they were not looking to be dissuaded from their goal. They
said that they would continue to provide as much information
as possible, but that they would not reveal the actual date
and time of the coup attempt, although they hinted that they
may take action within the next few weeks.


4. (S) The coup plotters said that they have been
coordinating closely with youth leaders who have been
planning a broader youth movement. Contacts essentially laid
out the exact same objectives articulated by the youths in
recent weeks (reftel): dissolution of the entire government
including the National Assembly to be followed by a
transitional council. They specifically mentioned respected
religious leader and Catholic Archbishop at the Vatican,
Robert Sara, who is Guinean, as the ideal person to head up
the transitional council. As has been the case recently with
the youths, contacts appeared divided as to whether they
would demand the president,s resignation or not, although
they stated that they would essentially force the president
to retire to his village, possibly leaving him as president
in name only.


5. (S) Contacts also indicated that they have been working
with the May mutiny leader, Claude Pivi (aka &Coplan8).
The officers said that they plan to use Pivi in the downtown
area near the presidential palace because people are
&afraid8 of him and because he is capable of pulling
together significant numbers of lower ranking soldiers. They
added that Pivi,s mutineers seized arsenals of heavy
weaponry, such as rocket propelled grenade launchers, during
the mutiny, which are still in the mutineers, possession at
Camp Alpha Yaya. Contacts emphasized that Pivi is not one of
the core coup plotters, and that they will neutralize him by
sending him back to the Forest Region with a new house and
plenty of cash once the coup is successful.


6. (S) The young officers articulated what appeared to be a
comprehensive and detailed plan to overthrow the current
government. They claimed to have strong support from various
groups within the military, with a strategy in place for
having loyal forces deployed at key points throughout the
city. Contacts stated that a contingent of gendarmes was
already positioned in Kamsar to neutralize any threat from
the president,s son and notorious narcotics kingpin, Ousmane
Conte, once the coup is underway. They also had a
complicated communications strategy involving multiple cell
phone networks and newly created phone numbers. Contacts
told DATT that they are receiving significant financial
support for the coup through diverted funds coming from a
sympathist in the military payroll office. The officers
added that they plan to close the airport in order to prevent
"the dogs from leaving," referring to members of the
president's entourage.


7. (S) According to the officers, their only objective is to
wrest power away from Conte so that they can turn the

CONAKRY 00000568 002 OF 002


government over to civilian leadership leading to
presidential elections. Some officers said that the
transitional council would need at least 12 months to
organize elections while others said that six months would be
adequate.


8. (S) The group told the DATT that they are not looking for
USG support for the coup, but rather, for help in
establishing a transitional civilian government once the coup
is over. They did not go into details about what they
thought such a transitional government might look like.
Contacts emphasized that they did not want to be
&condemned8 by the USG for organizing a military coup
d,etat.


9. (S) The officers said that it is important to take action
soon in order to avoid further security problems. They noted
that the GoG will issue its last one million franc ($200)
payoff of the Bulletin Rouge to individual soldiers on
October 5, which was the major demand of the mutineers in
May. Contacts suggested that mutinous elements of the
military may be looking to demand additional payments in the
months ahead. They also mentioned the youths, efforts to
coalesce as a possible point of conflict since the youths
don,t have the weapons necessary to effect the regime change
they are pushing for.

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COMMENT
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10. (S) Despite his sobriquet, Commander &Idi Amin8 Camara
is perceived as an intelligent, respected officer with
widespread support from junior officer and rank and file
soldiers. However, Pivi is seen as a volatile element prone
to bribes, who may not be content to retire to the Forest
once he gets close to power. While the organizers appear to
have a clear strategy in place for pulling off the coup,
their plans for a post-Conte transition are vague. Much of
the population has been quietly advocating for a coup for
several months, but there is no guarantee that a military
driven transition will evolve into a civilian government
interested in advancing democracy.


11. (S) In recent months we have seen a number of failed
movements aiming to ultimately either overturn or circumvent
Conte. This potential coup may end up being yet another
failed attempt. The longer the organizers wait to put their
plan in motion, the more susceptible they will be to
discovery and/or political infighting. At the same time,
economic desperation is increasing with the franc devaluing
against the dollar by eight percent in the last few weeks
alone. People are generally frustrated with Guinea,s
continued lack of socio-political progress with many contacts
feeling that nothing can change while Conte is still in
power. Many Guineans seem to be simply waiting ) waiting to
see if Conte is finally going to die or if some other group
is going to eventually push him out of office. Embassy
convened an EAC today to discuss the security situation. END
COMMENT.
RASPOLIC