MIXED VIEWS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR ON ELECTIONS

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SENSITIVE

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TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV ASEC GV
SUBJECT: MIXED VIEWS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR ON ELECTIONS

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Over the past few months, the Embassy has visited
nine different towns throughout Guinea's interior in an effort to asses
electoral readiness and extend our public outreach. The cautious
optimism of a year ago appears to be moving towards skepticism for
many citizens. Recent changes in the government have some voters
worried about the prospects for government neutrality and
transparency. However, many local actors are still moving forward
with enthusiasm and commitment, recognizing that Guinea's delayed
legislative elections represent the key to advancing democratic
reforms. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) As part of an effort to extend public outreach while advancing
key democracy objectives, Embassy Conakry established an "Adopt a
Town" program in May 2008. Under the program, twelve teams of one
to two locally engaged staff (LES),with an American as team leader,
"adopted" towns throughout Guinea. The teams will travel to their
adopted towns several times before, during, and after Guinea's long
delayed legislative elections. Nine teams have already made their
first visits in recent months, calling on Kindia, Mamou, and Labe in
Middle Guinea; Kankan and Siguiri in Upper Guinea; N'Zerekore and
Macenta in the Forest Region; and Fria in Maritime Guinea. Teams
met with a wide range of contacts including local government
officials, political parties, civil society, youth leaders, and the
media.

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FROM ENTHUSIASM TO AMBIVALENCE
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3. (SBU) Towns were in various stages of preparation for Guinea's
legislative elections, which are planned for December 2008, but now
expected no earlier than February 2009. In Macenta, citizens were
visibly energized, and members of the local electoral commission
seemed well-informed and ready to get to work. The enthusiasm in
Macenta, which was high relative to that of other towns, may have
been due to the fact that the National Independent Electoral
Commission (CENI) was in town conducting a training program over the
same weekend.


4. (SBU) However, a visit to Siguiri also happened to coincide with a
CENI training program, but the local reaction was quite different.
The Prefect of Siguiri refused to comment on elections preparations
saying only that the visiting team lacked an "official Guinean
Government travel approval" so he was not at liberty to discuss any
details. (COMMENT. Such documents are not required. END COMMENT).
In response to a question about how the GoG will work to ensure
neutrality in the upcoming elections, the Prefect replied that it
was "premature to discuss such a subject." However, the head of the
local electoral commission was positive about elections preparations
and said that since everyone knows their rights and
responsibilities, "it will be easy to force local authorities,
including the military, to maintain their neutrality."

5.(SBU) On the other end of the spectrum, citizens in Fria, which is
located only a few hours from Conakry, were more focused on
immediate concerns such as a lack of basic infrastructure, than they
were on elections. In Labe, contacts said that elections
preparations were moving smoothly, but that the actual preparation
process had not been the problem in previous elections. Instead,
they said that the GoG would repeatedly make major changes in
high-level positions at the last minute, thereby increasing the
president's power, and facilitating elections fraud. Contacts saw
the recent spate of presidential appointments as evidence that this
practice will continue in the upcoming elections.

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HOPE TEMPERED WITH SKEPTICISM
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6.(SBU) Across the country, most contacts seemed to agree that these
legislative elections will be a critical mechanism for advancing
democracy within the current political climate. However, there was
also a high level of skepticism as to whether or not the GoG could
hold transparent, credible elections. A women's association in
Siguiri told the Embassy team that "there will never be a
transparent election in this country as long as President Conte is
in power."

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FAIR GAME?
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7. (SBU) Tensions were evident during a meeting with political parties
in Macenta. The opposition parties accused the ruling Party for Unity
and Progress (PUP) of withholding information. They pointed out
that the voter registration process was supposed to start in Macenta
in just a few days, but that none of the opposition parties had been
informed, while the PUP representative had clearly been notified.
In response, the PUP representative said that all of their
information came from their party headquarters in Conakry, and

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pointed out that each of the opposition parties are also
headquartered there and should be disseminating information.


8. (SBU) The PUP representative in Siguiri told the Embassy team that
they have been actively working with the opposition Rally for the
Guinean People (RPG) party to reconcile differences and prevent
violence. (COMMENT. Siguiri has been a hotspot for election
violence in the past. END COMMENT). However, four RPG
representatives said that they would prefer to boycott the elections
because they are certain that they will be fraudulent, but that they
will defer to the decision of their party leadership in Conakry.
They added that during past elections, RPG members had been arrested
and detained for months, while other members were killed.

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MEDIA LACKS RESOURCES
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9. (SBU) Media contacts were generally enthusiastic about elections
and their role in preventing election fraud. However, contacts
repeatedly said that their overall effectiveness will likely be
hampered by their lack of resources. Correspondents at the national
radio station in Macenta told the Embassy team that they do not have
the logistical means for transportation and other expenses necessary
for effectively covering the surrounding villages. In addition,
Macenta's community radio needs another transmitter in order to be
able to broadcast to the entire sous-prefecture.


10. (SBU) The Director of Radio Rurale in Siguiri said that he plans to
assign correspondents throughout the sous-prefecture on election
day, but added that lack of fuel and financial resources may limit
the station's ability to cover the election properly. The Director
noted that the station had not yet started covering specific
election campaigns although the radio station has been running
special democracy programs focusing on informing citizens about
voting rights and responsibilities.

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COMMENT
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11. (SBU) During earlier visits to the interior under former Prime
Minister Kouyate's administration, most citizens were cautiously
optimistic about elections. While people remain hopeful, more and
more appear to be moving towards skepticism, mirroring the views
also being expressed by political parties and civil society in the
capital. The main political parties are committed to participating,
but are unconvinced that the elections will be transparent. Civil
society views range from seeing the elections as absolutely futile
to a likely catalyst for a civil uprising when they turn out
fraudulent. These trips into the interior suggest that training and
civic education programs, such as those funded by USAID, will be
critical if the elections are going to have even a chance at
success.

BROKENSHIRE