UNIONS UNDECIDED ABOUT POSSIBLE LABOR STRIKE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000050

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNIONS UNDECIDED ABOUT POSSIBLE LABOR STRIKE ON
MARCH 31


Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. The unions are undecided about whether or
not they will push for a strike on March 31, and unions
leaders appear divided. Negotiations continue, but union
leaders say that much will depend on the recommendation
issued by the Committee de Suivi and the president,s
subsequent reaction. At the same time, the government,s
unsustainable fuel subsidy program continues to be a major
issue. Union leaders say that they are willing to sacrifice
the subsidy, but the government must offer other economic
concessions in return. While significant attention is on the
unions, they are not the only political actors at work in
Guinea. Tensions are high and it seems increasingly likely
that a random event could spark civil unrest, with or without
a strike. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On March 25, Poloff met with union leaders Mme
Rabiatou Sera Diallo and Dr. Ibrahim Fofana who co-chair the
Unions-Intersyndicale. Prior to the meeting, Rabiatou called
POL LES and asked if the Embassy really wanted her to be at
the meeting with Fofana since they were generally ¬ on
the same page.8 During the meeting, both Fofana and
Rabiatou graciously deferred to each other, making sure that
each had time to voice their opinions. However, at various
times, Poloff saw both of them either looking away or rolling
their eyes when the other spoke. They were in a hurry as
they had been in meetings all day and were already late for a
meeting with the IMF and World Bank when they arrived for
Poloff,s meeting. Fofana was animated while Rabiatou seemed
tired.

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NO PLAN TO STRIKE, BUT WE MAY HAVE TO
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3. (C) Regarding a possible labor strike on March 31,
Rabiatou said that the unions never said March 31 was a
deadline for a strike, but rather, the completion date for
the work of the Committee de Suivi. She emphasized that the
unions currently do not have any plans to strike and that
they will continue to dialogue in order to find a workable
solution to Guinea,s ongoing political crisis. However,
Rabiatou said that the general population does not understand
that March 31 is not a strike deadline and that they need to
be informed. She added that people are preparing for a
strike, prices are rising, and people are stocking up on
supplies. At one point, she shrugged her shoulders with
seeming frustration and said &I don,t know why everyone
thinks we are going to have a strike on the 31st.8


4. (C) Fofana agreed that the unions currently do not have
any plans to strike on the 31st. However, he said that the
unions do expect to see progress towards resolving the
concerns they outlined in early January 2008, and if demands
are not met, the unions will strike. When asked to clarify
what an acceptable solution would be, he said that Conte
needs to sign a new government restructuring decree,
replacing the one of December 5, that clearly delineates the
powers of the prime minister and the consensus government.
He said that the government had already proposed an alternate
decree, but that it was unacceptable because it did not
address the PM,s powers. &The prime minister position does
not legally exist right now because the December 5 decree
reversed the 2007 agreements,8 he said.


5. (C) Later in the discussion, Rabiatou said that while the
unions may not strike on Monday, that does not mean that
other elements won,t take to the streets. Fofana added that
&what could really spark a strike are high level acts
(president or prime minister) that we are not consulted
about.8


6. (C) To clarify, Poloff asked Fofana if he meant that if
the issue of the PM,s position and delegated powers is not
resolved by the 31st, if that means that the unions will
strike. He said &I do not want to link the two.8 Later on
in the discussion however, he again emphasized that the
president must accept to clarify the PM,s powers and that
failure to do so would likely bring on a strike. Fofana also
pointed out that the unions have not issued any formal notice
of intent to strike, which is standard operating procedure.
&If we plan to strike, we will issue a formal notice,8 he
said.

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YOU CAN TAKE THE FUEL SUBSIDY, BUT GIVE US SOMETHING ELS
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CONAKRY 00000050 002 OF 002




7. (C) Both Rabiatou and Fofana were concerned about
increasing economic pressures. Rabiatou said that the unions
are not against removing or eliminating the government fuel
subsidy, but that if it is done, the government must do it in
consultation with the unions and offer some sort of
acceptable economic relief such as a rice subsidy. Poloff
told the union leaders that the Guinean Government cannot
afford to maintain the current subsidy and doing so would
seriously jeopardize the country,s IMF program, as could new
subsidy programs. Rabiatou said that they understand the
issue, but that the average Guinean does not, and they will
react violently. Fofana said that if the price of fuel
increases, so will prices on most other commodities in order
to account for increased transportation costs.

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HAITIAN ENVOY FROM THE UN TO FACILITATE DIALOGUE
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8. (C) Rabiatou mentioned that she and Fofana had met
earlier in the day with Mr. Gerard Latortue, a former prime
minister of Haiti, who is currently in Guinea as a UN envoy
to help facilitate dialogue. She said that Latortue is
&really welcome8 in that a neutral third party is needed to
effectively negotiate between various actors. According to
Rabiatou, Latortue analyzed the January 2007 Accords and
identified many problems related to the structuring of the
consensus government. She said that since Latortue was
appointed prime minister under similar circumstances in
Haiti, he is well placed to assist with the process in Guinea.


9. (C) Fofana chimed in and said that Accords need to be
rectified in order to address inherent weaknesses in the
structure that was established. &We could replace Kouyate
tomorrow, but that would not fix anything because the system
is broken,8 he said.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Fofana and Rabiatou were sending mixed messages.
Tone of speech and body language, as well as what was said,
suggests that the two union leaders do not see eye to eye
with regards to a possible strike on March 31. For the time
being, neither one felt that a strike on Monday is a sure
thing. At the same time, Fofana,s comments suggest that he
is more willing to consider a strike, especially if the
government does not meet union demands. Both Fofana,s and
Rabiatou,s viewpoints are consistent with comments they have
made during individual meetings with Poloff, with Rabiatou
advocating against a strike and Fofana pushing for one.


11. (C) The unions are unlikely to get what they want, as it
was outlined in the discussion with Poloff. President Conte
has resisted officially delineating the PM,s powers, and
events in early 2008 seem to have only strengthened his hand
while the PM,s power and support have waned. On the
economic side, the fuel issue is becoming increasingly
problematic. The consensus government needs to get rid of
the subsidy program, but is likely unable to offer economic
concessions that will pacify the population.


12. (C) Support for a strike, at least at the leaders,
level, appears to be mixed. Much depends on events over the
next few days, including the official recommendation of the
Committee de Suivi and the president,s reaction to it.
However, the unions are only one of the many political
elements at work in Guinea. Tensions are high and it seems
increasingly likely that a random event could spark civil
unrest, with or without a strike. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE