CENI SAYS ELECTIONS IMPOSSIBLE FOR 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000494

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CENI SAYS ELECTIONS IMPOSSIBLE FOR 2008

REF: CONAKRY 0485

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. According to the President of the National
Independent Electoral Commission (CENI),Guinea will not be
holding legislative elections this year, although he was
optimistic that they would be held no later than February

2009. Citing a series of delays and logistical challenges,
especially related to the voter registration process, Syllah
said that a new elections timeline will need to be
established. He was positive in his assessment of the new
prime minister, but expressed concerns about the new Minister
Secretary General of the Presidency as someone who may seek
to block progress towards elections. END SUMMARY.

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NO ELECTIONS THIS YEAR
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2. (SBU) A/DCM met with CENI president Ben Sekou Syllah on
August 26 to discuss progress towards general preparations
for upcoming legislative elections, which were originally due
in June 2007, and eventually postponed to November/December

2008. In his typically straightforward manner, Syllah opened
the meeting by telling A/DCM that it is impossible for Guinea
to hold elections before the end of the year. In previous
meetings, Syllah had been consistently optimistic that
elections would move forward despite significant challenges.
Syllah was still optimistic, but appeared frustrated with the
practical challenges on the ground, vowing that the elections
could be held by the end of February at the latest.
(COMMENT. Syllah publicly announced the anticipated delay in
a press conference the same day. END COMMENT).


3. (SBU) According to Syllah, the biggest stumbling block
has been the slow start to the national voter registration
program, which was finally launched last week after months of
delays (reftel). He said that although the EU and the UNDP
continue to maintain that registration will be completed in
two to three months, the reality is that it will probably
take much longer. "We're in the middle of the rainy season
and Ramadan, then people are going to be planting their
crops, the school year is going to start, and no one has
informed the population of what the registration process is
all about - they won't leave their crops to go register for
something they don't understand," Ben said.


4. (SBU) In addition to voter registration, Syllah said that
the remaining budget shortfall, logistical problems, and lack
of clarity of CENI versus GoG roles in elections management
continue to challenge election organizers. Syllah added that
everyone is going to need to get together and agree to a new
"chronogram" (elections timeline) in order to factor in the
anticipated delays with the voter registration process.

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FURTHER DELAYS?
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5. (SBU) A/DCM pointed out that any delay in the scheduling
of the legislative elections would likely add fuel to the
fire of those advocates pushing to postpone the elections
further and combine them with the local elections, which are
scheduled for 2009. Syllah agreed, but said that he and
others will argue to keep the legislative elections in 2008,
and push to hold the local elections concurrently with the
presidential elections in 2010.

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NOT 100% TRANSPARENT, BUT ACCEPTABLE ELECTIONS
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6. (SBU) Commenting on the recent series of political
appointments from the president's office, A/DCM asked Syllah
about the country's prospects for transparent elections.
Syllah said that there is no way they will be able to
organize elections that are 100% transparent, but that "we
can guarantee that the elections will be acceptable to all."
He added that elections observers will be critical to
transparency, estimating that more than 9000 will be needed
in order to monitor all the individual voting bureaus.
Syllah said that there is currently no financing for such
observers.

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PM MIGHT BE HELPFUL...
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7. (SBU) A/DCM encouraged Syllah to temporarily step away

CONAKRY 00000494 002 OF 002


from his position as CENI president and speak instead as a
regular citizen about his views on the current government.
Syllah relaxed and said that the prime minister appears to be
willing to dialogue and work with various stakeholders,
although his technical capacity is not clear. According to
Syllah, the cabinet is way too big. "We have new ministers
who don't have offices, cars, or budgets yet - it's too
much," he said.

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... BUT KEIRA MIGHT BE A PROBLEM
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8. (C) Turning to the president's office, Syllah said that
the new Minister Secretary General of the Presidency, Alpha
Ibrahima Keira could pose a problem. He said that Keira does
not have any legal role to play in elections organization,
but that he could block the process structurally. Syllah
pointed out that the president must sign a decree announcing
the date for elections, but that such a decree must now go
through Keira. "If he wants to slow things down, he's in the
right position to do so," Syllah said.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) There has been increasing doubt among the
international community and domestic participants alike about
the likelihood of elections being held before the end of the
year, although Syllah has always maintained that it could be
done. His recent change of heart indicates that the USG will
probably need to consider what it can do to maintain pressure
so that elections move forward in early 2009. Continued
elections difficulties bolster efforts by certain
stakeholders to further delay the process, the lack of which
completely undermines democratic progress. Meanwhile, the
president's ruling Party for Unity and Progress is slowly but
steadily making its way back into key government positions,
which is making citizens nervous about the prospects for
government neutrality and overall transparence. END COMMENT.


BROKENSHIRE