RPG OPPOSITION REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000486

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: RPG OPPOSITION REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The RPG opposition political party
remains optimistic about legislative elections despite
continued delays and the presidency's seemingly successful
efforts to gradually restore controversial personalities to
positions of power. Planning to fully participate in the
elections, the party is already out in the provinces training
its members to play active roles when the elections finally
do take place. Comments on what is happening behind the
scenes helps explain exactly why it is taking so long for
Guinea to get its elections off the ground. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On August 27 A/DCM met with Dr. Mohammed Diane, the
behind the scenes leader of the opposition Rally for the
Guinean People (RPG) political party, which is considered to
draw the majority of its support from the Malinke ethnic base
in Upper Guinea. The RPG is generally regarded as the most
radical of Guinea's four main opposition parties. The
party's leader, Alpha Conde, has been criticized for his long
absences from the country, although he has won the highest
number of votes next to President Conte in earlier
presidential elections.

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WHERE'S THE MINISTER?
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3. (SBU) Holding transparent, credible legislative elections
is at the top of Dr. Diane's priority list, although he
acknowledges that preparations are not moving along at a
sufficient pace if they are to be held by the end of the
year. He pointed out that a brand new Minister of
Territorial Administration and Political Affairs was
appointed in May, but that the new minister has yet to
schedule a meeting with the political parties, despite the
fact that he is supposed to be holding elections in just a
few months.


4. (SBU) Dr. Diane noted that he and other leaders of
political parties had spoken briefly with the new minister at
an official event a few days earlier. According to Dr.
Diane, the minister invited the party leaders into a private
room to speak with them for thirty minutes. In response to a
question about why he had not yet met with them, the minister
reportedly said "I am not familiar with the file so I have
not been able to schedule a meeting."

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THE DEVIL IN THE DETAILS
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5. (SBU) Dr. Diane also commented on a recent meeting
between the political parties and the National Independent
Electoral Commission (CENI) in which the parties discussed
government funding for political parties as provided by a law
passed in May 2007. Dr. Diane said that the small political
parties (of which there are now more than 50, many
representing only a handful of people) dominated the
discussion, claiming that all parties are entitled to an
equal share of government funding for campaign activities.
Visibly frustrated, Dr. Diane said that the law clearly
delineates how the funding should be split based on certain
criteria such as electoral participation. He added that the
discussion exemplifies why the electoral process takes so
long in Guinea. "The law clearly states the solution and yet
we took hours to discuss the issue, the CENI decided to
postpone a decision, and the government was not even
represented," he said.

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THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFERENT
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6. (SBU) According to Dr. Diane, it is impossible to have
elections that are "100% clean," but the fraud of the past
will not be permitted in the current socio-political climate.
He said that the violence in 2007 has caused a fundamental
mentality shift that has emboldened the population. A/DCM
questioned this claim, pointing out that despite frequent
talk of a "mentality shift," the population has offered
minimal resistance to the presidency's recent series of
controversial decisions. Dr. Diane agreed, but said that if
there is election fraud, people will react.


7. (SBU) Continuing on this theme, Dr. Diane mentioned a
recent instance where the prefect of Kankan reported to MATAP
that his prefecture contained 32 administrative districts for
voting purposes. Dr. Diane said that in fact, the prefecture
contains 41, and he and his party immediately spoke up to
correct the discrepancy. He considered this
misrepresentation a possibly deliberate attempt on the part

CONAKRY 00000486 002 OF 002


of the government to introduce electoral fraud, an attempt
that failed due to the RPG's vigilance.

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PREPARING THE FIELD
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8. (SBU) A/DCM noted hearing grumblings from individual
party members about possibly boycotting the elections, and
asked whether the RPG is still preparing its campaign. Dr.
Diane adamantly stated that the RPG "is absolutely going to
participate in these elections because they are absolutely
necessary." He added that elections represent the only
potentially democratic solution to Guinea's problems.


9. (SBU) Dr. Diane said that the RPG has already started its
electoral campaign process by conducting trainings for its
members in the interior, which it has recently completed in
Labe, Kankan, and N'Zerekore. He clarified that the RPG is
training its members on campaigning techniques as well as
roles and responsibilities as observers on election day.


10. (SBU) A/DCM asked about the RPG's strength in terms of
party leadership, pointing out that Alpha Conde has not
visited Guinea for more than a year. Dr. Diane said that
Conde is currently in the U.S. for the democratic national
convention, which he used as an opportunity to hold a meeting
with the Guinean Diaspora in New York City last week. A/DCM
asked how Alpha Conde can effectively represent the party,
let alone the country, when he spends so little time in
country. Dr. Diane said that Conde enjoys widespread popular
support. He added that Conde should be returning to Guinea
in October or November and that the warm welcome he is sure
to receive will clearly illustrate how popular he is.

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ELECTIONS FOR CREDIBILITY
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11. (SBU) Turning to recent political developments, A/DCM
asked Dr. Diane for his impressions of the new government as
well as the significance of recent changes. Dr. Diane said
that the system is broken because "as long as Conte is there,
it doesn't matter who the prime minister is." He added that
this leadership crisis is why elections are so important.
"The National Assembly is illegitimate - credible elections
will give us at least one credible institution, and then we
can move forward," he said.

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COMMENT
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12. (SBU) Although there is some concern about the timing,
the RPG remains optimistic about the upcoming legislative
elections. However, the rash of new political appointments
coming out of the presidency over the last few months could
potentially undermine the electoral process. The fact that
the new MATAP minister has yet to meet with the political
parties when elections should be his number one priority
suggests a lack of political will. On the issue of timing,
the lengthy meeting between the political parties and the
CENI illustrates exactly why preparations are behind
schedule. The participants spent hours discussing an issue
that should be relatively clear, yet the matter remains
unresolved. END COMMENT.


BROKENSHIRE