Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CONAKRY294
2008-06-13 13:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

REACTIONS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR REGARDING RECENT POLITICAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL ASEC GV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8940
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0294/01 1651314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131314Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2653
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000294 

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: REACTIONS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR REGARDING RECENT POLITICAL
EVENTS

REF: CONAKRY 00212

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000294

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: REACTIONS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR REGARDING RECENT POLITICAL
EVENTS

REF: CONAKRY 00212


1. (U) SUMMARY. During an Embassy road trip the week of June 2,
contacts shared mixed reactions to recent political developments in
Guinea. Most everyone, including government officials and civil
society, agreed that former Prime Minister Kouyate had to go.
However, civil society representatives were divided as to whether or
not the appointment of Dr. Ahmed Souare as the new prime minister
violates the 2007 tripartite accords. In general, the population
appears to be waiting to see what the new Prime Minister does before
reacting. With respect to the military mutiny, many contacts were
clearly disappointed that the mutineers had resorted to violence for
narrowly defined, self-serving interests, suggesting that they would
have been willing to support them if the mutineers had a broader
political focus. END SUMMARY


2. (U) During a trip to Boke, Sangaredi, Koundara, Labe and Mamou
(spanning Maritime and Lower Guinea) the week of June 4-9, Asst
Poloff met with local authorities, civil society, and youth
associations to discuss the population's reaction to the recent
political events in Guinea, and specifically the change in prime
ministers and the ongoing military mutiny.

--------------
"PRESIDENT CAN CHANGE GOVERNMENT IF HE WANTS"
--------------


3. (SBU) The Prefect of Boke, Keita Mamadou, reported all was calm
and normal in Boke during the recent political turmoil in Conakry.
When asked his opinion about the appointment of a new prime
minister, Mr. Mamadou said that "the President is the head of state,
and if he wants to change the government, he can do that." He added
that this change will not impact him directly as he is appointed by
the President, explaining that while the Prime Minister recommends
the Prefects, the President ultimately signs the decree. The Prefect
also commented on the military mutiny, saying that there were no
military protests in Boke. He added that he appreciates the
decisions the President made to appease the mutineers, which put an
end to the mutiny.


4. (SBU) The Governor of Boke, Siafa Beavogui, was more neutral. He
stressed that he was part of the committee that wrote Guinea's
constitution and that the new prime minister should abide by it.
According to the Governor, a civic "catastrophe" similar to events

in neighboring countries will not happen in Guinea because Guineans
will stop before it gets out of hand. He said that Guinea has
"three-day crises" that are largely "bluffing" politics. The
Governor added that he knows people keep bringing up ethnicity as a
potential issue, but that it cannot be a problem in Guinea because
all the ethnic groups are inter-related.

--------------
"PEOPLE WANTED A NEW PRIME MINISTER"
--------------


5. (SBU) Several hours north of Boke on Guinea's border with
Senegal, in Koundara, the Secretary General of the prefecture,
Mamadou Allou Diallo, confirmed that everything remained calm and
normal in Koundara during the military mutiny, adding that people
are generally far more concerned with the upcoming farming season
than politics in Conakry. Mr. Diallo said that according to the
constitution of Guinea, it is up to the President to appoint
positions in the government. He reported hearing the decree read
over the radio, but said he had not heard anything about the new
prime minister's priorities. According to Mr. Diallo, the people of
Koundara wanted a new Prime Minister, and are now waiting to see
what Prime Minister Souare will do.


6. (SBU) The Mayor of Koundara, Elhadj Abdoulaye Boiro, said that
former Prime Minister Kouyate's appointment last year gave hope to
the population. However, Mr. Boiro said the population in Koundara
wanted a chane in prime ministers because Prime Minister Kouyat
did not deliver on his promises, saying that peole used the price
of rice, which has more than dubled during Kouyate's
administration, as an indcator of his failure. Mr. Boiro added that
the ppulation is waiting to see what the new Prime Miniter does
before they form an opinion. The Mayor lso commented on the
military mutiny the previou week, saying that the people did not
support th military mutiny because the mutineers chose only o make
demands that benefited the military. He sid that had the mutineers
made demands that wouldhave benefited all Guineans, they would have
recived a great deal of support from the population.

--------------
MILITARY ACTED SELFISLY
--------------


7. (SBU) Asst Poloff also held political discussions with members of
a youth association in Koundara. Mamadou Saidou Balde, Secretary

CONAKRY 00000294 002 OF 003


General of the Association de Jeune Pour le Dveloppent de Badiar,
said that the former prime minister could not do anything for the
people of Guinea because he was blocked by the President. He did
however acknowledge some of Kouyate's accomplishments, such as
progress with the international finance institutions and increased
foreign investment. Other members agreed with Mr. Balde, saying that
rivalry between the President and Prime Minister is the reason
Kouyate was unable to effect change. Mr. Balde said that he
preferred former Prime Minister Kouyate to Prime Minister Souare,
because Prime Minister Souare is part of President Conte's corrupt
administration. Mr. Balde also commented on the military mutiny,
saying that "the population initially thought the mutineers cared
about the livelihood of Guinean people, but quickly realized they
only cared about themselves."


8. (SBU) The President of Koundara's Civil Society Council, Ibrahima
Diakite, told Asst Poloff that if the President thought the former
prime minister was failing, Conte should have convened the
signatories to the 2007 tripartite accords to decide on an
appropriate replacement. Mr. Diakite said that while firing Prime
Minister Kouyate was a clear breach of the accords, the lack of
reaction from the population illustrates that people felt Kouyate
had failed to deliver on his promises. He added that people are now
waiting to see who the new PM nominates to serve in his cabinet.


9. (SBU) The members of the Civil Society Council were clearly
disappointed in the military mutineers. One member said that the
"military are supposed to protect the people, and instead they were
attacking them." Another said that while mutineers are getting
millions of GnF and cheap rice, the people of Guinea continue to
suffer, commenting that the mutineers' actions are "sinful". Mr.
Diakite said that had the mutineers not been selfish in their
demands, they would have had support from the population.

--------------
"COUNTRY AGREES WITH APPOINTMENT OF A NEW PRIME MINISTER"
--------------


10. (SBU) Moving into Middle Guinea, the Governor of Labe, Elhadj
Ibrahima Sory Diabate, said that all has been calm in Labe because
"people appreciate the appointment of a new Prime Minister," and are
waiting to see what he does. He added that in his opinion the
appointment of a new PM represents hope for Guinea. Regarding the
military mutiny, Mr. Diabate said that the "population understands
the legitimacy of their demands, however the people do not support
their acts of violence."


11. (SBU) Asst Poloff met separately with the Prefect of Labe,
Elhadj Ibrahima Balde, who said that he does not know the rationale
for Kouyate's dismissal, but that the President can do what he wants
with his administration. He said that "the lack of protests across
Guinea illustrate that the whole country agrees with the appointment
of a new prime minister." He added that he knows Prime Minister
Souare well and his educational, technical and administrative
abilities will be good for Guinea. When asked about the military
mutiny, Mr. Balde said that the mutiny is an outcome of years of
recruiting people who are involved in malicious behavior and are
undisciplined.

--------------
ETHNIC MOTIVES BEHIND CHANGE IN PRIME MINISTERS
--------------


12. (SBU) Building upon Econoff's meeting (reftel) with the Prefect
of Mamou Safioulaye Bah on May 21, Asst Poloff asked about the
population of Mamou's reaction to the recent events. Mr. Bah said
that everything has been calm in Mamou, and that the population is
waiting to see what the new Prime Minister does. Mr. Bah also
expressed his thoughts on the role of ethnicity in the change of
prime ministers. He said that President Conte is using ethnicity as
a tactic to remain in power, appointing a Peuhl as Prime Minister
because it is usually the Peuhl communities that protest and spark
civil unrest. He said that is the reason only a few areas, Kankan
(Upper Guinea) and Matoto (Conakry) for example (considered
predominately Malinke),experienced unrest when Prime Minister
Souare was appointed. Mr. Bah also briefly commented on the military
mutiny saying that his military guards are no longer coming to work
now that they have their money. He added that the President set a
very dangerous precedent by meeting all of the mutineers' demands.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (SBU) Government officials, most of whom were appointed by
former Prime Minister Kouyate, claimed to support the President's
decision to install a new prime minister. However, most are not
seen as Conte loyalists and may lose their posts under the new
administration, despite their assurances to the contrary. Like the

CONAKRY 00000294 003 OF 003


population, they too are waiting to see what the new prime minister
does.


14. (SBU) Although political opinions in the interior sometimes do
not reflect those of the capital, it is clear that the residents of
Maritime and Middle Guinea are in sync with Conakry when it comes to
the appointment of a new prime minister and the ongoing military
mutiny. The population appears to be in "wait and see" mode,
watching the new prime minister and looking to his cabinet as an
indication of what his priorities (and his allegiances) might be.
Comments about the mutiny echo those heard recently in Conakry.
Many people seem to be disappointed with the mutineers' narrow
focus, indicating that they would have been willing to support the
military's methods if the objective was more political, and broadly
defined. END COMMENT.

CARTER