UNIONS POSTPONE STRIKES, CALL FOR DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000029

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNIONS POSTPONE STRIKES, CALL FOR DIALOGUE

REF: A. CONAKRY 0013


B. CONAKRY 0004

C. CONAKRY 0020

D. CONAKRY 0019

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) At midnight on January 10, Guinea,s labor unions
were able to reach a negotiated agreement to postpone a
nationwide labor strike. A key provision of the agreement is
the immediate establishment of a Committee of Collaboration
and Dialogue, which is supposed to review the January 27
Accords and ensure their proper implementation. Union
leaders are now looking at March 31 as an unstated deadline
for resolving issues, in preparation for the April 4 opening
of the next legislative session. Union leaders report that
they are being threatened by the presidential guard and fear
for their safety. Although the immediate political crisis
has been diverted, Guinea,s current political power struggle
is far from over. END SUMMARY.

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UNIONS AGREE TO DIALOGUE
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2. (U) On the eve of a nationwide labor strike (Reftel A),
unions leaders agreed to postpone the strike following a
series of meetings that went into the midnight hour last
night. After more than five hours of negotiations behind
closed doors, which included unions, civil society, the
Guinean Government, the Patronat, and religious leaders,
participants signed a formal agreement. In return for
postponing the strikes, the Government of Guinea agreed to
immediately establish a permanent Committee of Collaboration
and Dialogue (Committee de Suivi) in order to review the
January 27 Accords and monitor their implementation. In
addition, the government agreed to review the government
restructuring decree (Reftel B),reconstitute the Watchdog
Committee (Reftel C),immediately publish the results of
recent ministerial audits, to rapidly proceed with
investigations into the alleged human rights abuses of early
2007, and to ensure the safety and security of union leaders.

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DEFINING THE CAUSE
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3. (SBU) On the afternoon of January 9, Ambassador and
Poloff met with the unions at their downtown headquarters.
During the meeting, which was led mostly by CNTG Secretary
General Mme Rabiatou, the unions seemed committed to the need
to go forward with the strike. Rabiatou noted that the
unions were cognizant of the many outside demands to suspend
the strike, but felt that the strike was a critical mechanism
by which the unions could tell the Guinean Government that
they would not tolerate violations to the January 27 Accords.


4. (SBU) When the Ambassador asked why the unions were
pursuing the strike, Rabiatou said that the strike is to mark
frustration. She stressed that the January 27 Accords had
been violated by recent presidential actions, especially the
restructuring decree and the firing of the minister of
communication (Reftel D). In addition, she acknowledged that
the unions and others were partially at fault for Guinea,s
current political situation because of their failure to
adequately monitor implementation of the Accords after the
installation of Kouyate,s consensus government. Rabiatou
also emphasized that while the Guinean population was not
supporting the strike, the people still support the unions
and the general principles they are fighting for.


5. (SBU) The Ambassador emphasized that Guinea,s current
political situation requires a peaceful Guinean solution. He
encouraged union leaders to consider extensive dialogue and
consultation between interest groups. Furthermore, the
Ambassador said that the strike could effectively derail
recent progress, especially in terms of a return to an IMF
funded program and concrete steps towards transparent
legislative elections.


6. (SBU) Dr. Fofana, Secretary General of USTG, told the
Ambassador that President Conte is trying to unravel the
progress represented by the January 27 Accords, and in
particular, to undermine the prime minister. According to
Fofana, the planned strike was the only thing holding the
president back from replacing more of Kouyate,s cabinet.

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Referring to government progress on elections and the IMF,
Fofana said all of the progress we have today is because of
the January 27 Accords.

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SEEKING A THIRD FORCE,
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7. (SBU) Rabiatou told the Ambassador that even if the
problem is a Guinean one, the U.S. can play a role in finding
the solution, noting that it is in the U.S. interest to avoid
backsliding. She emphasized the need for what she called a
third force. Even if the government refuses to listen to
the people, they will listen to the international
community,, she said.

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A CHANGE OF HEART
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8. (SBU) An hour after the Ambassador left, Political
Section LES visited union headquarters to find union leaders
deep in discussion. After consulting with each other and
then their respective constituencies, union leaders
reportedly decided that it was in everyone,s best interest
to postpone the strike. The unions then headed to the
National Assembly to negotiate the formal agreement.


9. (SBU) Later, Rabiatou and Fofana independently told LES
that they had interpreted the Ambassador,s meeting to mean
that the U.S. Government did not support the strike, which
was reportedly a significant factor in their decision to
postpone it. A Guinean internet news site reported that Dr.
Fofana had mentioned his conversation with the U.S.
Ambassador as one of the factors taken under consideration
during union deliberations.

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WHAT NEXT
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10. (SBU) Although the negotiated agreement did not specify
a deadline for achieving the listed objectives, contacts
report that everyone is looking at March 31. The National
Assembly opens its spring session on April 4 and the
President of the National Assembly, Aboubacar Sompare,
reportedly told the unions and other participants that since
the Committee de Suivi,s recommendations could involve
amendments to the constitution and/or legal code, the
Committee should be ready before the legislative session
convenes.

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UNION LEADERS THREATENED
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11. (SBU) ECON LES, who was outside the People,s Palace
during the closed door negotiations, spoke at length with a
group of five young PUP militants (ruling Party for Unity and
Progress). Recognizing the group as the same individuals who
had hurled insults at Dr. Fofana the previous day, LES asked
them about their political agenda. The youths reportedly
said that we will destroy whoever insults our leader )
Fofana needs to be tied up and taken to jail., LES said
that when Fofana left the meetings, he was heavily guarded
and did not even make a press statement.


12. (C) Fofana came to the Embassy on January 10 to meet
with the Ambassador and Poloff. Fofana,s primary
preoccupation was his personal safety and the safety of three
of his children still residing in Guinea (he has five other
children in the U.S. and in Europe). Fofana told the
Ambassador that he continues to receive direct and credible
threats from the Red Berets (Presidential Guard). He asked
the Ambassador for assistance with visas for the three
children in Guinea. Ambassador told Fofana that he would
have the consular officer speak to him and that he would talk
to other Ambassadors so that they all could encourage the
Prime Minister and others to work towards ensuring the safety
of union leaders.

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LEAVE THE PRESIDENCY OUT OF IT
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13. (C) In regards to the negotiated agreement, Fofana told
the Ambassador that he does not think the current National
Assembly will do anything to advance union interests. When
the Ambassador asked about the Committee de Suivi and whether
the office of the president would be represented, Fofana said

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no. He said he didn,t see any need for them to be there
because they have no interest in advancing the process.
Fofana said that the three republican institutions that will
be represented (the Supreme Court, the National Assembly, and
the Economic and Social Council) should adequately represent
the presidency.

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COMMENT
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14. (SBU) The unions, decision to postpone the strikes was
a bit surprising since they had made it clear to the
Ambassador that they were committed to going forward despite
the lack of popular support. According to union leaders, the
Ambassador,s comments during the January 9 meeting played a
significant role in shifting their game plan. The Ambassador
was careful to appear neutral and did not recommend a
specific course of action. It is possible that alluding to
international pressure may have given the unions an
acceptable way to back down from the strike without losing
face.


15. (C) The tense atmosphere in Guinea seems to have abated,
at least for the time being. However, the drama that started
to unravel last week is far from finished. This new
Committee de Suivi raises several questions and concerns.
For one thing, they are going to have to find someone to
chair the committee and it may be hard to find a mutually
acceptable, objective mediator. For another, they may
intentionally be looking to exclude the presidency, which
doesn,t bode well for the long-term viability of whatever
solution they come up. Last, if they are going to have to
amend the legal code, how far are they going to get with a
firmly entrenched National Assembly loyal to the old guard?


16. (C) Meanwhile, the strategists at the Presidential
Palace cannot be ignored. The indefinite postponement of the
labor strike may be perceived as a win for Conte. In
addition, the PM is going to be forced to deal with the new
minister of communication ) another point for Conte. If the
presidency makes another move, it could further destabilize
what is already a highly volatile political situation,
forcing a strong public reaction. In addition, the perceived
gains for Conte mean that Kouyate must take the hit. The PM
is likely to be even more constrained politically. Guinea,s
political situation is nothing if not fluid and these recent
events suggest further troubles on the horizon. END COMMENT.
CARTER