TEACHERS WARN OF POSSIBLE LABOR STRIKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000274

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018
TAGS: ELAB PGOV ASEC KDEM GV
SUBJECT: TEACHERS WARN OF POSSIBLE LABOR STRIKE

REF: CONAKRY 244

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Guinea's teachers' unions continue to
threaten a possible labor strike, which could begin as early
as June 10. Such a strike has the potential to spark civil
unrest, as it did in a similar situation in 2006, especially
among the country's students. It is not yet clear whether a
strike will take place next week or not, but continued
political tensions and economic frustration contribute to a
generally volatile political climate. END SUMMARY.

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TO STRIKE OR NOT TO STRIKE...
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2. (SBU) On May 29, in the midst of a week-long military
mutiny, Guinea's two teachers' unions (SLECG and FSPE)
notified the Government of Guinea of a possible labor strike
as early as June 10 (reftel A). However, on May 30, the head
of SLECG, Louis M'Bemba Soumah, publicly stated on the
national news network (Radio Television Guinean - RTG) that
because the population appeared willing to accept the new
prime minister, the country's labor unions would also support
him, provided that he demonstrates his willingness to adhere
to the January 2007 Accords.


3. (SBU) On June 2, the Secretary General of FSPE, Elhadj
Bamba Camara, and the Deputy Secretary General of SLECG,
Elhadj Souleymane Savane, issued yet another declaration.
They denounced Soumah's public statement, claiming that
Soumah did not speak for the unions. During a subsequent
telephone conversation with POL LES, Soumah said that RTG had
manipulated his statement, and that he fully supports and
represents the interests of teachers' unions. He added that
the teachers had not backed off from the possibility of a
strike, and would proceed with negotiations.


4. (SBU) According to the pre-notification, most of the
unions' demands focus on economic issues including increased
salaries, an increase in the transportation allowance, and
payment of salary arrears. In addition, the unions claim
that the appointment of the new prime minister, Dr. Ahmed
Tidiane Souare, violates the January 2007 Accords.


5. (SBU) Poloff had two separate meetings scheduled with
Louis M'Bemba Soumah over the course of this week, but Soumah
canceled both at the last minute. For the second meeting,
Poloff requested that Soumah come with his colleagues Camara
and Savane, but Soumah told Pol LES that he wanted to come
alone as he would feel more comfortable, and could speak
freely. Poloff finally met with Souleymane Savane and Bamba
Camara on June 6, without Soumah present. She also met with
the Minister of Education, Dr. Ousmane Souare, on June 5 to
discuss the potential labor strike.

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MINISTER OF EDUCATION NOT WORRIED
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6. (SBU) Minister Education Souare (cousin to Prime Minister
Souare) repeatedly told Poloff that he did not think the
unions would go forward with the strike. He said that he had
approximately $8.9 million budgeted to meet their demands,
but that the money would not be available until July since he
had to spend June's budget on expensive national exams. A
member of SLECG himself, Minister Souare said that he had
told his union colleagues that a strike does not make sense
and that it would be an "irresponsible" decision to go
forward with it. He added that students and parents would
likely protest the strike, which could spark violence. The
Minister noted that he had a meeting scheduled later in the
day with the unions in order to discuss their issues.


7. (SBU) When Poloff asked why the Minister had postponed
the national exams to the week of June 23 (instead of the
week of June 9 as originally scheduled),Souare said that the
postponement had nothing to do with a potential strike even
though the media claimed otherwise. According to Minister
Souare, he postponed the exams because of the unrest
surrounding last week's military mutiny.

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AN EXPLOSIVE SITUATION
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8. (SBU) During Poloff's meeting with union leaders, the
Secretary General of SLECG, Souleymane Savane, explained that

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most of the unions' demands date back to at least 2005. He
said that it was the teachers who "got things started"
initially, and that the other unions, notably CNTG and USTG,
only jumped on the train after the teachers had already got
it moving. He emphasized that although the teachers' unions
are members of the larger Unions-Intersyndicale, under the
leadership of Dr. Ibrahima Fofana and Serah Rabiatou Diallo,
they are still independent and must represent the interests
of their membership. He later said that he is in touch with
both Rabiatou and Fofana, and they support the potential
strike.


9. (SBU) When Poloff asked "why now?," Savane launched into
a long-winded oratory about how the issues have been
festering for at least three years and nothing has been
addressed. Poloff acknowledged that there are long-standing
problems that need to be resolved, but pressed Savane to
explain why they were pushing through with a strike in the
aftermath of a military mutiny and a generally volatile
political situation.


10. (SBU) Savane said that the unions' decision has nothing
to do with the current political context, and that they had
actually started the process in April with a letter to the
Minister of Education. Savane said that the Minister never
responded to the letter, but that the teachers' issues were
discussed at a Council of Ministers meeting with Kouyate,
although ultimately nothing was done. According to Savane,
the issues pre-date the appointment of the new prime
minister, Dr. Ahmed Tidiane Souare, and the decision to move
forward with a strike had nothing to do with Kouyate's
dismissal.


11. (C) Poloff asked the unionists if they were willing to
risk possible civil unrest in order to hold their strike.
Savane said that unionists are passive and the strike will
consist of nothing more than simply staying home. Poloff
pointed out that if there is violence, it is likely to come
from the students, to which Savane said "the whole situation
is explosive, whether our strike provides the spark, or
something else does, that is not our responsibility." He
added that the teachers do not control the students and that
if they should decide to demonstrate, that is their
prerogative.


12. (SBU) With respect to the June 4 meeting with the
Minister of Education, Savane said that the Minister invited
the unionists to meet with him and that they accepted.
However, when asked how the negotiations went, Savane said
"they were not negotiations; no one has started
negotiations." According to Savane, the Minister told the
unionists what the GoG had already done for them, and then
everyone left. Savane emphasized that promises will not be
enough. "We must see the proof of their promises to avoid a
strike," he told Poloff, pointing out that the GoG has been
promising them things for three years, but nothing has
materialized.


13. (SBU) Noting that one of the unions' demands deals with
the appointment of the new prime minister, which they claim
violates the January 2007 Accords, Poloff asked how the
unionists expect the GoG to address this issue given that
much of the population appears willing to try and work with
him. Savane did not answer the question directly even though
it was raised several times, instead saying only that the
"Accords must be respected."

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COMMENT
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14. (C) Savane came across as a fervent militant committed
to the strike, despite the possibly violent repercussions.
He repeatedly said that the unionists are pacifists, but it
was clear that he knows exactly what is at stake, and may
even be hoping that the strike could serve as a catalyst for
a political transition. POL LES conversations with various
union contacts suggest that there may be significant support
for this strike at the grassroots level. However, the
continued absence of key union leaders such as Rabiatou and
Fofana, who remain in Geneva for an international labor
conference, raises several questions. Political tensions are
high with the threat of additional crises looming, and yet
the self-identified leaders of the people are making no moves
to return?


15. (C) The Minister of Education claims that he has the
money to meet the unions' economic demands. Sources indicate
that the World Bank has already given the Ministry $10

CONAKRY 00000274 003 OF 003


million as part of its Poverty Reduction and Growth Plan.
However, during a recent Ambassadors' G8 meeting, World Bank
and IMF representatives questioned how the GoG will meet the
military payroll needs in June, let alone any teachers'
demands. The IMF representative indicated that for the GoG
to meet the financial demands of the mutineers, it may have
to reallocate funds from other ministerial accounts. The
World Bank representative expressed concern that the $10
million from the World Bank to the Ministry of Education
effectively expands the Education budget, creating an
opportunity for the GoG to divert Education resources for the
military. The GoG appears to be coming up short on cash, and
the demands continue to mount.


16. (SBU) At this point, it is not clear whether a strike
will materialize next week or not. The unions came right up
to the eve of a strike in January, and then backed down at
the last minute because of lack of support from the
population. However, the situation with the military
mutineers is not yet resolved, and people are increasingly
desperate economically, and frustrated politically. The
situation remains volatile. END COMMENT.
CARTER