EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 13

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000252

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PMIL ASEC KDEM GV
SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 13

REF: A. CONAKRY 0223-0228


B. CONAKRY 0231-0233

C. CONAKRY 0236-0247

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) As of 14:00, Conakry remains quiet and calm. Embassy
has received no reports of gunfire or criminal activity.
Local businesses and gas stations remain closed. There is
very little traffic on the roads. Earlier this morning,
between 150 and 250 women were peacefully demonstrating in
front of the People's Palace, which is located just before
the Castro Bridge leading to downtown. The women were
chanting in support of President Conte and later started
marching towards the Presidential Palace, calling out "Long
Live President Conte." The British Ambassador, who lives
downtown, told Ambassador Carter that soldiers are still in
the streets. He said that they are looking "lethargic" and
may be getting bored.


2. (C) Sources reported that the mutineers sent a courier to
the Ministry of Defense around 11:30 who notified the GoG of
an additional demand. They are now reportedly calling for "a
complete change of government." When source was asked
whether they were referring to the president or the prime
minister, he said again "a complete change of government."
No meetings have taken place today between the mutineers and
the GoG, reportedly because they cannot agree on a neutral
meeting place. President Conte was reportedly at the
Ministry of Defense when the courier made his delivery, but
was planning to either go to the presidential palace or
return to Camp Samory Toure.


3. (C) RSO and DAO toured the main access routes to Camp
Alpha Yaya and saw no evidence of any military buildup.


4. (C) The Project Manager for the Embassy's Local Guard
Program said that two of his other clients, Cellcom and
Orange (both telecommunications) are trying to facilitate the
departure of visiting management officials. A representative
of the mining company BHP Billiton told the Ambassador that
he was also assisting visitors with departure arrangements.


5. (C) The main question for those within the diplomatic
community relates to who is in charge, both within the mutiny
and the GoG. The Senegalese Ambassador asked Ambassador
Carter "who's the boss?" The ECOWAS Ambassador posed the
same question, as have several other Ambassadors and
diplomats.


6. (C) The Russian Ambassador told Ambassador Carter that
Conte's side will eventually win because the mutineers do not
seem to have any external support. He added, however, that
he does not know how long the stand-off will last, but that
when it is over, the mutiny will likely have serious
repercussions politically, socially, and militarily. The
ECOWAS Ambassador said that the population is essentially
indifferent towards the mutineers and that the only area
where their interests may converge is in the desire to get
rid of the "old guard" bureaucrats.


7. (C) Ambassador Carter also spoke to Guinea's Foreign
Minister (FM) who said that the situation is "sad, but not
fully a surprise." When asked who is in charge of the
negotiations, the Minister seemed confused, but then said he
thinks the prime minister is in charge. He expressed his
concern that if the mutiny persists, Guinea could be faced
with a rebel military faction. (COMMENT. The FM was working
from home and appeared to be almost completely out of touch
as far as the GoG's reaction to the situation. END COMMENT).


8. (SBU) Reports from three contacts in Kindia, which is
located about two hours north of Conakry, indicate that there
was a shooting in the town last night that left at least one
person dead. A gendarme of officer rank told RSO LES that a
sous-lieutenant died after being struck by a bullet fired by
local soldiers sympathetic to the Conakry mutineers. He said
that the soldiers had also burned the car of the military
camp's financial administrator. A member of the Kindia
Governor's staff told Econ LES that the dead soldier was the
camp "watchman," and that nine other people were wounded. A
local union representative told Econ LES that he heard
shooting all night. The situation has reportedly been calm
since this morning.


9. (SBU) The Peace Corps doctor said that a young man, aged
22 or 23, had been shot dead in his neighborhood by uniformed
security forces a few days ago. The doctor said that he did
not personally witness the incident, but knew the young man

CONAKRY 00000252 002 OF 002


well, and had talked to neighbors about it. He said that the
soldiers robbed the young man and then shot him even though
he did not protest the robbery. The Peace Corps Nurse said
that her sister-in-law had been injured by a falling bullet
and when she took her to the hospital, they found four or
five other civilians who had also been wounded by falling
bullets. Two of the wounded individuals said they were in
their houses when they were struck by the bullets.


10. (SBU) The National Council for Civil Society
Organizations is releasing a public declaration today
condemning the mutineers. The Council calls the mutiny "an
attack on the rule of law and fundamental liberties." It
demands that the mutineers end the mutiny immediately, and
"firmly condemns any act of violence against citizens."

--------------
RUMORS?
--------------


11. (SBU) There has been rumor of a possible peaceful
demonstration later this afternoon, to be organized by
elements of civil society, reportedly to protest the mutiny.
One contact said that the demonstrators would march across
the Castro Bridge towards the Presidential Palace after
Friday prayers. However, several other Pol/Econ contacts
representing civil society and youth organizations told Pol
LES that they were not aware of any planned demonstration. A
union member told Pol LES that an announcement had been made
on local radio calling people to demonstrate, but that no one
had any transportation to the downtown area, so no one went.


12. (SBU) The national news network Radio Television Guinean
(RTG) announced that all of the soldiers had returned to
their barracks in order to receive their regularly scheduled
1 million GNF monthly payment ($220),which is normally paid
out on the last working day of the month. Embassy has not
yet confirmed whether or not this is actually happening.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) The situation appears to be calmer today than it has
over the past few days. This may be related to a number of
different factors, including the continued scarcity of fuel,
the arrival of the Army Rangers, and the fact that today is a
prayer day. However, the GoG and the mutineers do not yet
appear to have come to an agreement, and the mutineers may
now be demanding an undefined change of government. The GoG
does not yet have the situation under control. Furthermore,
it is not clear who is negotiating on behalf of the GoG, nor
what kind of support the negotiator is getting, and from whom.


14. (C) Civilians may be getting less tolerant of the
current situation. As the fuel problem persists, citizens
are likely to get increasingly frustrated as they are unable
to go about their daily business. The steadily rising cost
of living coupled with the general poverty level and lack of
refrigeration means that most Guineans do not keep more than
a day or two's worth of food at home. Availability of fuel
is critical both to bringing food into the capital, and for
people being able to get out and buy what they need. END
COMMENT.
CARTER