EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 5

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000231

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PMIL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 5

REF: A. CONAKRY 0224


B. CONAKRY 0225

C. CONAKRY 0226

D. CONAKRY 0227

E. CONAKRY 0228

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Soldiers were celebrating into the night
yesterday after winning government concessions to all
mutineer demands. Celebratory activities included
intermittent firing of guns into the air, some armed
muggings, and looting of several businesses. The media
reports that at least three people have been killed, and 30
wounded. The situation this morning appears relatively calm,
although there is a heightened sense of caution amongst
citizens. One contact visited the Ambassador yesterday
evening and provided some useful insights into what may be
happening behind the scenes. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) After the Guinean Government (GoG) conceded to all
of the mutineers' demands around 15:30 on May 27, there were
still reports of intermittent gunfire into the night, as
soldiers fired into the air to celebrate their victory.
Sources have confirmed that gas stations in Matoto and
Tannerie were looted by soldiers, while unconfirmed reports
indicate that Total gas stations in Camayenne and Enco 5 were
similarly looted (all four stations are located in Conakry).
Embassy has not received any reports of warehouse lootings,
although there have been unconfirmed reports of some looting
of smaller shops. Conakry's largest open air market, Medina,
was closed yesterday. The media has reported that at least
three people were killed and 30 wounded over the last few
days.


3. (SBU) There have been no reports of gunfire this morning
and the city appears calm. Many gas stations remain closed
and cars are lined up waiting for fuel. Medina market
remains closed. There is less traffic on the road, but
citizens generally appear to be going about business as
usual, albeit with some caution. The French School and a
French pre-school (which several Embassy children attend) are
closed through Thursday. The American School is open.


4. (U) Prime Minister Ahmed Tidiane Souare appeared on the
national news network, Radio Television Guinean (RTG) at
20:30 on May 27 to announce the results of the negotiations
with the mutineers. He did not provide any detailed
information about the mutiny itself, but confirmed that the
GoG had agreed to the following demands: release of all
soldiers detained for alleged human rights abuses in early
2007; dismissal of the Minister of Defense; payment of 5
million GnF to every soldier; and continued negotiations over
rice subsidies for soldiers. In addition, he stated that the
mutineers would not be arrested. He also noted mutineers'
demands to dismiss the Chief of Staff and other high ranking
officers, and said that the GoG would continue to negotiate
this point. He did not name a new Minister of Defense.


5. (S) A prominent youth leader who is well connected to the
Peuhl community stopped by the Ambassador's residence
yesterday evening for about 30 minutes. Visibly worried,
Contact told the Ambassador that he is deeply concerned about
what he is hearing from members of the president's entourage.
He said that the presidency believes that former Prime
Minister Lansana Kouyate may be implicated in the military
mutiny. Contact added that Kouyate was apparently planning
to leave the country yesterday, but that the new PM and the
President's cronies were going to prevent him from boarding
the aircraft. (COMMENT. The only international flight on
Tuesday evenings is to Morocco. END COMMENT).


6. (S) According to Contact, Kouyate is very close to a
woman identified as Kadiatou, who is Guinean, but currently
in Mali. When the Ambassador asked why Contact thought that
Kouyate may have been involved in the mutiny, Contact said
that Kadiatou knew that General Baillo Diallo's (the
dismissed defense minister) house was going to be looted and
burned before it happened yesterday afternoon. Contact
questioned how someone living in Mali could have access to
such a specific detail without being connected to someone
close to the mutiny. In Contact's opinion, that connection
could have been Kouyate. However, he added that regardless
of whether or not Kouyate is involved, the president
perceives him as involved.


7. (S) Contact also told Ambassador that the president is
only appeasing the mutineers, but has no intention of
actually meeting their demands. Instead, Contact said that

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once the situation calms down, the president's entourage will
identify the leaders of the mutiny and simply "take them
out." He said that there will be no arrests, only
executions. According to Contact, the president said "just
let things calm down and I will go after them."


8. (S) When asked about possible personalities involved,
Contact said that aside from the president and the new PM,
Fode Bangorah and Ousmane Camara are central actors.
According to Contact, "these guys don't care about anything,
they just want power." From the mutineers' side, he
identified Biro Conde and Daida Camara as possible leaders.
(COMMENT. Embassy does not yet have any additional
information on these identified individuals, other than the
former Secretary General of the President, Fode Bangorah.
END COMMENT).


9. (S) For Contact, one of the more concerning elements of
Guinea's evolving political situation is a growing ethnic
dynamic. With Souare's appointment as PM (a Peuhl),he said
that many people are encouraging ethnic tensions between the
Peuhls and the Malinkes. (COMMENT. The former PM is
Malinke).

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COMMENT
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10. (S) The situation remains calm although people seem to
be more cautious than usual. However, the apparently
successful mutiny raises a number of concerns about Guinea's
current political dynamic. The fact that the military was
able to stage a relatively organized mutiny with significant
backing suggests that the military brass no longer has any
control over the rank and file officers. It also suggests
that someone higher up, either from within the military or
from outside, was involved. We have yet to see the civil
society reaction to the concessions granted, but the release
of alleged human rights violators is likely to be
inflammatory. The situation remains fluid. END COMMENT.
CARTER