HOW CAN THE PRESIDENT CONTINUE TO WORK UNDER THESE

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000022

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON ELAB GV
SUBJECT: HOW CAN THE PRESIDENT CONTINUE TO WORK UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS? - THE OLD GUARD SUPPORTS CONTE



1. Summary. On January 8, Ambassador Carter met with the President
of the National Assembly and several senior officials to discuss the
political standoff between President Lansana Conte and Prime
Minister Lansana Kouyate and the threat of a general strike January

10. The Assembly leaders displayed unwavering support for Conte and
were highly critical of the Kouyate government. They claimed that
Kouyate is not governing by consensus and that the economic
situation is even worse under Kouyate than it was before. They said
that the unions called the strike without consulting business
leaders or civil society, and they don't expect the strike will be
widely followed. End summary.


2. Ambassador Carter met with the President of the Guinean National
Assembly, Aboubacar Sompare, and several senior officials, including
the 4th Vice-president, Almamy Fode Sylla, and the head of the
Finance Commission, Yassine Barry. The Ambassador thanked Sompare
for the audience and said that he is in the process of meeting with
everyone involved in the current political situation, including the
government, unions and civil society. The Ambassador described this
as a political process and an internal question that requires a
Guinean solution.


3. Sompare described the origins of the current situation as the
botching of the release of President Conte's New Year's message.
According to Sompare, the text described the weakness of the
government and the need for some restructuring. Conte reportedly
told the Minister of Communication, Justin Morel Junior, not to
broadcast the message. Sompare alleges the director of RTG put the
message on the internet, and the director was sanctioned. Sompare
noted that in the speech the President stated he was retaking some
of his constitutional powers, leading the Prime Minister to believe
that his own powers were being taken away. When Morel Junior was
fired, the unions called a strike, but Sompare claims they did not
consult with the business leaders (Patronat) or others in civil
society.


4. The Ambassador noted that according to the Accords of January
27, 2007, this is a consensus government, and the Accord defines the
structure of the government. Even though the position of Prime
Minister is not in the constitution, the President accepted the
Accords and thus the authority of the Prime Minister. Sompare
responded that it is also the unions who have a responsibility to
consult with the Patronat and civil society, which they failed to
do.


5. Sompare also complained that under the government of Prime
Minister Lansana Kouyate, the Ministries are overly concentrated
with too heavy a workload. He noted that the Minister of Education
is now in charge of primary, secondary and university level
education. He said that these functions need to be dispersed. The
Ambassador noted that this is similar to the situation in the United
States, and wondered if it wasn't more efficient. Sompare said that
the job was too difficult under this structure and less efficient.


6. Barry, the head of the Finance Commission, noted that the
January 27 Accord has been in place for one year and the President
has applied the Accord. He claimed that there is a lack of economic
management under Kouyate which gives the impression that things are
worse off now than they were before. He noted that while official
perdiem rates for GoG travelers is between $140-$240, Kouyate's
ministers have claimed perdiem for as high as $800. He stated that
there has been a lack of transparency and "consultation" with the
National Assembly on the manner and allocation of public contracts.
He cited the example of a sole source bid issued by the government
to a Lebanese firm to provide energy services as a very high cost.
He claimed that the contract's issuance was completely opaque.
Sylla, the 4th Vice-president, observed that the government spends
money to pave the roads in front of an upscale hotel but not to pave
the roads in the surrounding neighborhood. Barry also noted the
transfer of the proceeds from mining royalties (mining fund) from
Credit Suisse to BNP Paribas, and observed that there was no
consultation before that decision was made. The GoG has used the
Swiss bank for over 30 years and now everything was transferred to a
French bank. When the Ambassador asked what it mattered if the GoG
changed accounts as long as it was done transparently, Sompare
exclaimed that the GoG has put the countries resources in the hands
of their former colonial rulers and that now France has some
leverage over Guinea. He added that the transfer threatened
Guinea's sovereignty. He asked the rhetorical question, "How can
the President continue to work under these conditions?"


7. Ambassador Carter noted that the macro-economic conditions are
better now than they have been in the past and there is more control
of he economy. He cited the better control over moneary
aggregates at the Central Bank, stronger budetary control at the
Finance Ministry and the aproval of an IMF program. Barry
responded that te GoG financing gap is the largest in the country's
history and that it reflected poor financial leaership by Kouyate's
government. The Ambassador oted that he disagreed this assessment
completel. Sompare interjected that the economic improvemen is
visible, but that there is less financial indpendence, returning to
the BNP Paribas issue. H reiterated his view that the actions of
the Kouate government undermine Guinea's sovereignty. Bary
worried that the Guinean government was gettig too close to Libya,

and.


8. When the Ambassador asked what they thought would happen with
the strike, the consensus in the room was that people will not
follow the strike. Barry said this was a political strike, not an
economic one, and that there is nothing in the strike that will help
the workers. He said people want to work and they are fed up with
strikes. Sompare concurred that there is no interest in a strike
and Guineans always succeed when they are more detached from these
situations.


9. Comment: The mood in the room among these Conte supporters was
one of yearning for the "good old days" when Conte ruled with little
or no opposition. Their devotion to the President and dismissive
attitude towards Kouyate seems to blind them to the fact that many
of the economic woes that they attribute to Kouyate were created
when they were in government and responsible for the country's
economic condition. It is clear that this group represents the
interest of the old guard and that their sights are on getting
Kouyate out and themselves back in. On a more positive note, the
meeting afforded Ambassador Carter an excellent opportunity to lay
out the position of the United States as a neutral observer and to
encourage dialogue and a peaceful resolution to the political
impasse. This message was also delivered to a national television
audience in a brief interview following the meeting. End comment.
CARTER