UNDAUNTED BY INTERNAL DISCORD, UPR OPPOSITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000210

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNDAUNTED BY INTERNAL DISCORD, UPR OPPOSITION
PARTY PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS

REF: CONAKRY 0131


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The president of the UPR opposition party
assured Poloff that he remains the party's legitimate leader,
irregardless of recent party declarations to the contrary.
He attributes the internal dissension to a handful of members
who want to ally with the UFDG and Cellou Diallo. Having
just returned from a month-long campaign through Middle
Guinea, Bah was skeptical as to whether transparent elections
can be organized by the end of year, if at all. END SUMMARY.



2. (U) Despite having been publicly dismissed from his
position as party president (reftel),Ousmane Bah of the
Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR) opposition political
party told Poloff on May 12 that he is still in charge since
the majority of the party's membership is opposed to the
decision. The UPR is the only opposition party represented
in the National Assembly, and as the head of the party,
Ousmane Bah is the minority leader within the Guinean
Parliament.

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STILL THE HEAD OF PARTY
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3. (SBU) Bah classified the recent dissent within the party
as an "old problem." He said that there is a continuing
debate as to who should lead the party and in what direction.
According to Bah, members of the UPR's executive bureau met
in October 2007 to discuss these issues, and in particular,
the possibility of forming a political alliance with Cellou
Diallo's Union Force Democratic Guinean (UFDG) party. Bah
told Poloff that a handful of members wanted to ally with the
UFDG, but that the executive bureau decided to remain
autonomous. Bah said that his recent "dismissal" was
orchestrated by a dozen members of the party's executive
bureau who want to push for the alliance with the UFDG, to be
led by Cellou Diallo.


4. (SBU) In response to a question about the party's
internal governing structure, Bah said that the executive
bureau consists of 75 statutory members, but that in reality,
there are about 120 active members, although he did not
clarify the roles of these 45 non-statutory members. Bah
said that the group pushing for his dismissal and the
alliance with the UFDG represents only a small fraction of
the party leadership and therefore, cannot unilaterally make
a decision that affects the entire party. Bah assured Poloff
that he remains the legitimate, democratically selected head
of party. He also said that he had filed paperwork with the
Ministry of Interior and Security to clarify the situation,
but that he has not yet received a response.


5. (SBU) COMMENT. During a May 13 meeting with the PM on
elections (septel) Bah was the only head of party present as
all of the other major parties sent deputy members to the
meeting. At one point, another political party referred to
Bah as the UPR representative, to which Bah jokingly, but
loudly, affirmed "not the representative, the president!"
END COMMENT.

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ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
--------------


6. (SBU) Noting that Bah had just returned from a month long
road trip in Middle Guinea, Poloff asked about the UPR's
political campaign and elections preparations. Bah said that
the UPR is not officially campaigning at this point because
Guinean law forbids campaigning until two months before
Election Day. He said that his main objective was to get a
sense of how things are progressing at the local level and to
begin raising awareness about upcoming elections. Bah said
he traveled extensively in Middle Guinea, which represents
the party's largest constituent base (primarily from the
Peuhl/Fulani ethnic group),and that he plans to travel
throughout the rest of the country in the coming months.


7. (SBU) Bah mentioned that he had participated in a large
political rally in Conakry on May 10, which was reportedly
organized by his supporters. (COMMENT. Several Embassy
employees noted the large gathering and an Embassy contact
provided photographs of motorcycle brigades and hundreds of
people wearing t-shirts displaying Ousmane Bah's profile.
END COMMENT). When asked how he is financing the party's
activities, Bah said that he gets "local donations" and that

CONAKRY 00000210 002 OF 002


the UPR deputies to the National Assembly also provide
financial support.

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NOT SURE ABOUT ELECTIONS
--------------


8. (SBU) Regarding general elections preparations, Bah told
Poloff "between you and I, absolutely nothing is ready." He
said that the most urgent need is a public education campaign
to inform potential voters. In addition, he said that
although the local electoral commissions have been set up,
they lack resources, and there is a general sense of
confusion about who is responsible for what (i.e. local
authorities versus electoral commissions). Bah was critical
of the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI),
saying that the results of the elections will illustrate
whether the Commission is truly independent or not.


9. (SBU) Bah told Poloff that he is not convinced that the
elections will take place in 2008. "People want good
elections, but we need to be at least 80% sure that we can
have them." When asked to clarify, Bah said that if
organizational issues pose problems for transparency and
credibility, it would be preferable to postpone the date
rather than to go forward with elections that will likely be
flawed.

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COMMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) Despite Ousmane Bah's personal misgivings about
the potential for transparent elections in 2008, the UPR is
the only political party that currently looks to be preparing
a political strategy, at least overtly. There has been quite
a bit of talk and intermittent press coverage regarding
Cellou Diallo and the UFDG, who are rumored to be spending
significant amounts of money as he gears up his campaign.
The UFDG and the UPR will be competing for the same voter
base, and Ousmane Bah's decision to spend some time in the
Middle Guinea likely represents a calculated political
measure to try and shore up his support. Bah told Poloff
that the UPR will participate in transactions even if it
looks like they will not be transparent. END COMMENT.

CARTER