Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CONAKRY203
2008-05-19 14:34:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

FULANI VILLAGERS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMY

Tags:  PGOV ECON KDEM ASEC GV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7872
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0203/01 1401434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191434Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2534
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000203 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FULANI VILLAGERS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMY
THAN ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000203

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FULANI VILLAGERS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMY
THAN ELECTIONS


1. SUMMARY. A recent road trip into villages throughout
Middle Guinea reveals that villagers just thirty minutes off
the main road are unaware that the Guinean Government is
organizing legislative elections in six months. Villagers
were generally preoccupied with basic cost of living issues
and spoke of elections only in vague, hopeful terms. Most
people agreed that Guinea's political and economic situation
is worse now than ever before, for which they blame Prime
Minister Kouyate, but did not seem to see any clear solution
in sight. END SUMMARY.


2. On May 8 and 9, Poloff visited five different Fulani (a
Guinean ethnic group also known as Peuhl) villages between
Mamou and Labe in order to get a sense of villagers'
perspectives on upcoming legislative elections, the economy,
and Guinea's political situation. In a small village located
directly on the main road, Poloff met with a man who claimed
to be a member of the ruling Party for Unity and Progress
(PUP),and the recently appointed president of the local
electoral commission. Another stop was a weekly market that
straddled the main road, attracting villagers from throughout
the prefecture, where Poloff chatted with a gathering of
several elderly gentlemen. Poloff also visited three small
villages located between 30 to 60 minutes outside of the
urban center of Labe, via rough dirt roads. In one village,
more than 40 men gathered after evening prayers to discuss
their views. In another village, Poloff met with three
middle-aged farmers, who were also brothers, and their
grandfather, on their shared family compound.

--------------
THINGS ARE WORSE NOW THAN BEFORE
--------------


3. Without exception, villagers agreed that Guinea's current
political and economic situation is worse now than it was in
2006 and early 2007. Many blamed Prime Minister Kouyate, who
they said has failed to make any meaningful progress towards
improved governance. The PUP member outside of Pita told
Poloff that the government is completely blocked. When asked
who is responsible for the lack of progress, he said "I can't
say at my level, all we see is that the system is not
working." A village elder outside of Labe said "there has
been no change, nothing has changed." Other villagers told

Poloff that no one is content, but they continue to hope for
change. In another village, farmers said that people
initially had great confidence and hope in Kouyate, but that
this sentiment has dissipated in response to unfulfilled
promises.

--------------
FEELING THE ECONOMIC PINCH
--------------


4. Cost of living issues took center stage during village
discussions. At the market gathering, elders told Poloff
that a single "measure" of rice used to cost about $.02, but
now costs closer to $.66, while fornio (a local grain) has
increased from $.11 to $.56. They also said that dried fish
is becoming exorbitantly expensive at $2.22/measure. When
asked how people are coping with the prices, the elders said
that the villagers have been able to tolerate the prices so
far, but that they will no longer be able to do so once the
rainy season starts (usually in June).


5. The PUP representative said that the rising prices are
particularly painful and he had "never seen it like this."
In another village, elders said that everyone is preoccupied
with the high cost of living, but that the government is not
doing anything to offer economic relief. Farmers living on a
multiple-family compound told Poloff that they can no longer
make ends meet and have already started cutting back on
consumption. They said that they are only doing subsistence
farming, but that it is not enough to support their families,
and they can no longer afford to buy staple goods at the same
rate. One farmer pointed out that food itself is not the
only issue, saying that it used to cost $.44 to transport a
bag of rice from Labe to the village, but that the price of
the trip has doubled, and now costs about $1.11.


6. When asked why they thought prices were rising, most
villagers said that they are aware that world prices are
increasing, which is impacting local markets. However, they
all thought that the Guinean Government should be doing more
to alleviate economic pressures. The PUP representative told
Poloff that the government's recent export ban is an
excellent initiative that will bring food prices down. When
Poloff asserted that an export ban is not sound economic

CONAKRY 00000203 002 OF 002


policy, he disagreed and said that it may "pinch" farmers
initially, but everyone will benefit from the lower prices.
In another village, elders told Poloff that neighboring
countries have already started implementing economic relief
measures, and that the Guinean Government needs to respond
soon in order to avert a food crisis.

--------------
NOT THINKING ABOUT ELECTIONS
--------------


7. Although villagers seemed to be reasonably well aware of
global market forces and their impact on the local economy,
many people were unaware that Guinea is organizing
legislative elections in just six months. People with
regular access to main roadways did know that elections are
on the horizon and were able to comment on initial
preparations. However, those living in the quiet village
communities appeared surprised when Poloff asked about
elections. One elder said "yes, we have heard something
about elections, but we do not know if they have set a date,
or even what the elections are for." A farmer in another
village essentially said the same thing. When Poloff
questioned whether there had been any discussions about
elections on the local radio, villagers said that there had
been some vague announcements, but no one really knows what
is going on.


8. Those villagers who were aware of impending elections
told Poloff that they hope the elections will be different
from past elections, and that they will result in a more
fairly elected legislature. The PUP representative, who is
also the recently elected president of the local electoral
commission, said that "elections are the answer if we elect
good, honest people." However, he also said that his
electoral commission, which consists of three members, has
not held any meetings yet, and that they do not have any
operational resources.


9. After informing people in more remote villages that the
Guinean Government is in fact organizing elections for late
2008, Poloff asked what people thought about elections in
general. One elder said that he was "not really interested
in politics because nothing ever changes." Another villager
said that they only ever hear from the politicians in the few
months of campaigning before elections, and then they all
disappear. "They speak about the many projects they will
bring us, but then we never see anything materialize," one
villager said. Despite this sense of pessimism, villagers
said that they do want to see a national voter registration
campaign, which may help bring more transparent, credible
results. A group of farmers said that the if the prime
minister organizes the elections, as opposed to the
president, there's a "better chance for transparency."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


10. Although the comments from these Fulani villagers
represent only a small sample of the population in Middle
Guinea, they provide useful insights into what villagers are
thinking about Guinea's current political and economic
situation, at least in one part of the country. There was
very little interest in the political machinations of the
capital, or even much knowledge of the day to day politics.
People were deeply concerned about the immediate cost of
living issues, but also the broader development issues. One
villager said that "if the government would just give
everybody jobs, we would have peace." Most villagers seemed
to feel that the current government is not the answer, but
they didn't have another solution to offer. The lack of
awareness of, as well as interest in, elections indicates
that this government and the National Independent Electoral
Commission have a steep road to climb if they are going to
implement free and fair, transparent, credible elections in
Guinea. END COMMENT.
CARTER