LOCAL STAFF WORRIED ABOUT ONGOING POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000018

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY-- Please disregard (ZDS Conakry 210/213)
all previous MCNs/MRNs under this cable subject heading.
Previous cables under this subject heading went out as
duplicates in error.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: LOCAL STAFF WORRIED ABOUT ONGOING POLITICAL
TROUBLES

REF: A. CONAKRY 0029


B. CONAKRY 0201

C. CONAKRY 0182

D. CONAKRY 0162

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D



1. (C) Poloff and Econoff held an informal discussion with a group of
senior LES staff from USAID, Management, RSO, Peace Corps, and PAO on
March 13 to exchange thoughts on Guinea's current political situation a
the upcoming March 31 deadline for negotiations set by the country's la
unions (reftel A). LES staff agreed that there is currently a high deg
of uncertainty and that they are generally worried about how things wil
develop in the coming weeks and months. Based on their meetings with
various contacts as well as their conversations with friends and
relatives, LES staff identified several key concerns.

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REDUCING MILITARY RICE SUBSIDIES
--------------


2. (C) LES staff agreed that the military's plan to reduce subsidies o
rice for its soldiers (reftel B) could incite a strong negative reactio
and possibly a military revolt. Several LES mentioned that the subsidi
rice is a signficant source of income for the average soldier and they
already grumbling in the barracks. An RSO LES said that she has freque
contact with lower ranking soldiers and they are making a lot of noise
about the rice issue. One lieutenant reportedly told her that the lowe
ranks are beginning to coalesce in opposition. Other staffmembers said
that the senior military officials are loyal to President Conte, but th
younger soldiers are divided.


3. (C) Staffmembers also mentioned the military's campaign to recruit
soldiers, saying that the selection process is completely unfair and
non-transparent. "People are only getting in if they have a personal
recommendation from somebody who is already in the military," they said
adding "none of it is based on merit."

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WHERE ARE THE AUDITS
--------------


4. (C) The issue of government audits (reftel C) also came up several
times with LES staff questioning why the consensus government had not
released them even though they are reportedly finished. They mentioned
that according to the press, the president's chief of protocol, Idrissa
Thiam, had gone to the new communications minister, Issa Conde, and
pressured him to not release the audits. LES staff said that Idrissa
Thiam is likely to be implicated for corruption and that is why he is
trying to manipulate the situation. However, another LES staff member s
that he sees Issa Conde every weekend at regular social events and that
Conde told him that the Ministry of Economic Control had never even
delivered the audits to his office.


5. (C) Interestingly, LES reported that Idrissa Thiam's sister is a
Director at the National Treasury and said that everyone knows they are
both corrupt.

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PREFECT AND CNC NOMINATIONS
--------------


6. (C) Several staffmembers commented on the recent presidential decre
nominating a new prefect in Kindia and a new director for the National
Communications Council (CNC) (reftel D). They said that people are
resisting these nominations, particularly in Kindia. LES said that
peaceful protests continue in Kindia and it will be important to see
whether the people of Kindia can succeed in reversing the nomination.
other LES mentioned that copies of the presidential decrees had been
published in Horoya, the national newspaper, and that the president's
signature on each document appears suspicious. They said that the
signature is exactly the same on both documents, including were it is i
relation to the text, which makes it appear as if the signature was cop
from another document and then pasted on the decrees. The RSO LES said
she was recently working her contacts at the Ministry of Justice and fo
over three hours, various discussions focused on the CNC nomination wit
people saying "if our government can do this, what is next?"

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ECONOMIC HARDSHIP
--------------

7. (C) LES staff repeatedly returned to basic economic hardship. One
said "it's gone from bad to worse, and from worse to I don't even know
what the word is." They mentioned that the Guinean franc has been
steadily weakening in relation to both the dollar and the euro while th
price of rice has been increasing. Shortages at the fuel pumps and
reports of possible government enforced rationing (septel) only increas
economic difficulties. They also said that the supply of electricity h
deteriorated significantly in recent months.


--------------
THE RUMOR MILL
--------------


8. (C) Staffmembers acknowledged that rumors abound in Guinea, but
highlighted a few particularly concerning ones that they had heard
recently. Some said that some contacts in the military are talking abo
President Conte planning to set up his son, Ousmane Conte, who is
notoriously corrupt, as his successor. On fuel subsidies, one LES said
that people believe the government is intentionally making it appear as
their are fuel shortages in order to justify increasing the price.
Another reported that the joke on the street is that if there is a stri
it will be to get rid of all Lansanas (meaning both Kouyate and Conte),
because they haven't seen a Lansana that can do the job.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The heightened sense of political uncertainty that came out of
power struggle in early January continues. Our LES represent a good
cross-section of the Embassy and of the population, and are tuned in wi
what people are talking about. They generally agreed that people are
worried, including themselves, and that they are not sure in what
direction things will go. Opinions were generally mixed as to whether
not a strike would go forward, and if it did, if it would turn violent.
However, they were generally dissatisfied with Guinea's current politic
and economic situation, agreeing that the government has failed to
deliver. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE