Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CONAKRY16
2008-01-08 05:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

YOUTH SAY STRIKES ARE A BAD IDEA

Tags:  PGOV ELAB KDEM GV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6623
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0016/01 0080557
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 080557Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2021
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000016 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV ELAB KDEM GV
SUBJECT: YOUTH SAY STRIKES ARE A BAD IDEA

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000016

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV ELAB KDEM GV
SUBJECT: YOUTH SAY STRIKES ARE A BAD IDEA

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. According to a Conakry youth leader,
Guinea,s young people do not support the unions, plan to
resume a nationwide labor strike on January 10, which could
prematurely escalate political tension. Many of Conakry,s
youth reportedly do not think that the prime minister has
effectively delivered the change they demanded in early 2007
and does not warrant the support a nationwide strike would
demonstrate. At the same time, some youths are hesitant to
boycott the strike since they do not want to be seen
supporting the president. According to contact, many youth
feel that the best possible solution to Guinea,s current
political problems would be a coup d,etat. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Poloff met with Thierno Balde, a Stanford University
educated local youth leader, on January 7. Balde has been
working with youth associations in Conakry in recent months
in order to encourage unity and develop a concrete strategy
for advancing the interests of Guinea,s young people. He
also has plans to bring together youth associations from
other parts of the country in order to work towards forming a
national forum for youth. Balde lives in Hamdallaye, which
is almost always one of the first of Conakry,s districts to
erupt into violence when things heat up politically in the
capital. Balde said that a group of approximately 25 youth
leaders met on January 5 to discuss the current political
situation and have additional meetings planned for January 7
and 8.


3. (C) According to Balde, there are basically two schools
of thought on the current political situation among
Conakry,s youth. The first group thinks that a nationwide
labor strike is a bad idea. Balde said that many in this
camp are simply disappointed with Prime Minister Kouyate and
feel that he has done nothing to address the problems
critical to youth: unemployment and lack of economic
opportunity. Furthermore, Balde said that this group is not
willing to go into the street and get killed, for Kouyate.
Balde said that there is also a contingent within this group
which is not interested in the strike because it is being

paid to support one faction or another (COMMENT. He did not
specify which faction. END COMMENT).


4. (C) The second camp, Balde said, does not fully support
the idea of labor strikes, but feels that people must
demonstrate support for the unions because if they do not,
they will be tacitly supporting President Conte. According
to Balde, for this group it is a matter of choosing the
lesser of two evils ) they are not happy with Kouyate, but
Conte is intolerable.


5. (C) Balde said that the youth believe that young people
paid the price the last time around since most of the blood
shed was that of Guinea,s youth. Balde added that they are
not willing to pay that price this time around unless they
are certain that it will result in real political change.
With Kouyate,, Balde said, there is no role for the
youth and even if the crisis is resolved, there still will be
no role for youth.,


6. (C) According to Balde, Conakry,s youth are envisioning
three possible scenarios in relation to resolving current
political tensions. The first scenario involves Conte firing
Kouyate, which Balde said may not be problematic for the
youth as long as Conte appoints an acceptable replacement.
The second scenario is that the strike moves forward on
January 10, of which Balde said no one has a clear idea of
how that may develop or what impact it will have. The third
scenario would be a military coup, and that, Balde said, is
what most of the youth are hoping for.


7. (C) Balde emphasized that whatever happens, the youth
want a clear solution; they want to see a clear path leading
toward change. According to Balde, the youth see Conte as
the main problem and his removal would clear the arena and
enable a new leader to start over. However, Balde said, if
there is a coup, whoever takes control needs to focus on one
thing: organize legislative elections and then immediately
hand power over to the new National Assembly.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Balde,s comments suggest that the youth may be both
impatient and naive concerning the current political context
- impatient in the sense that they expect change overnight
and naive in the sense that their proposed solution, a coup
d,etat, would bring the change they are looking for. Balde
said the youth did not have any clear idea of who would take

CONAKRY 00000016 002 OF 002


power in a coup situation, nor of how they would influence a
new government that forcefully seized power. Balde seemed
confident in his ability to keep the youth out of the streets
during the upcoming labor strike. He said that if he tells
them to stay home during the strikes, not as a demonstration
of support for the unions, but as a way to avoid violence, he
thinks they will. However, Guinea,s young people remain an
unknown variable ) no one knows exactly what they will do or
who or what they will ultimately support. This is the group
that has little to lose and much to gain, and they are the
ones who have been calling for change the loudest.
CARTER