UNION LEADER HAS NO HOPE FOR PEACEFUL SOLUTION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000151

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNION LEADER HAS NO HOPE FOR PEACEFUL SOLUTION


Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. During a meeting with Poloff on April 29,
union leader Rabiatou presented a gloomy outlook on Guinea's
current political situation. She said that it is impossible
to find a solution as long as President Conte remains in
power, and literally scoffed at the idea that transparent
legislative elections could set the stage for a successful
transition. Rabiatou called for a military coup, but said
that the army is not strong enough to organize one. She said
the dialogue process is essentially blocked and the unions
are now focusing on more pressing economic issues rather than
political ones. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On April 29, Poloff met with Rabiatou Serah Diallo,
Secretary General of the National Confederation of Guinean

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Workers (CNTG) and co-chair of the Unions-Intersyndicale.
Rabiatou was coming from a radio interview at the Radio
Television Guinean station and heading to another meeting
with union colleagues.

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EVEN BILL CLINTON COULDN'T FIX IT
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3. (S) Throughout the course of the meeting, Rabiatou was
pessimistic, repeatedly saying that she sees "no end" to
Guinea's current political crisis. She said the Guinean
system is fundamentally broken and that change is impossible
as long as President Lansana Conte remains in power.
Rabiatou told Poloff that Prime Minister Kouyate has failed
miserably, but he is only part of the bigger problem. "You
could bring in (former U.S. president) Bill Clinton as
Guinea's prime minister and even he would not be able to get
anything done," Rabiatou said.

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FOCUSING ON THE ECONOMY
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4. (SBU) According to Rabiatou, the Committee de Suivi,
which was set up in early January in order to evaluate
implementation of the 2007 Accords, is completely blocked.
She said that the Committee had already sent a letter to the
PM requesting a direct consultation, and that they are hoping
to meet with him on April 30. When asked what the unions and
other negotiators hope to get out of the April 30 meeting,
Rabiatou said that the PM must commit to implementing
appropriate economic relief measures to counter the steadily
increasing cost of living. Several times, Poloff asked her
to specify the relief measures the unions are hoping for, but
Rabiatou evaded answering the question.


5. (SBU) Rabiatou did confirm however, that the unions were
behind the government's recent decision to institute an
export ban on agricultural products. When Poloff said that
such a policy is only going to exacerbate the situation in
the long-term and that the international community does not
support the policy, Rabiatou stubbornly insisted that exports
must be banned at least through December 2008. She argued
that neighboring countries are essentially stealing Guinea's
food stocks by coming over the border to buy them and then
transporting them back to their home countries to sell at
higher prices. "The Senegalese are preserving their own
forests, but coming over here to buy the charcoal that is
made through the destruction of Guinean forests; it's not
right," she said.


6. (SBU) Poloff pointed out that with the unions focusing on
economic relief measures, the underlying political issues
will essentially be ignored. Rabiatou agreed, but said that
"we have to make sure our stomachs are full; until then, we
cannot pay attention to the political issues." According to
Rabiatou, until the economic pressures are dealt with, no one
has the energy to focus on the political crisis. She said
she realized that the unions are not addressing the root
problems, but that in order to avoid violence and maintain
the peace, they have been forced to shift their attention to
the economic issues.

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GUINEANS HAVE PROSTITUTED THEMSELVES
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7. (S) Referring to popular demonstrations against rising
food prices around the world, Poloff asked why Guineans have
been relatively quiet on the subject. Rabiatou said that
"Guineans have prostituted themselves." When asked to
clarify, she said that citizens have lost all dignity and

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morality. She said everyone is essentially "on the take" and
simply looking for the next opportunity to take someone's
money in return for political support. "All you have to do
is go into the local neighborhoods and look around; everyone
is taking money," she said.

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THE MILITARY WITHIN THE MILITARY
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8. (S) According to Rabiatou, Guinea's problem is that it
does not have a strong military. Echoing statements she had
made in previous meetings with Poloff, Rabiatou said that the
only solution to Guinea's current crisis is a
military-organized transition. "We need the military to
force the action, get rid of the top, and restart at ground
zero." Poloff told Rabiatou that such a situation could
spiral out of control, and that there would be no guarantee
that a new government would be better than the old one.
Poloff stressed that there a number of people already
positioning themselves to take over if an opportunity should
arise, and that the only mechanism for ensuring a peaceful,
democratic transition is to have transparent elections that
result in the election of a representative government.
Rabiatou snorted and said she had "absolutely no confidence
in the elections."


9. (S) When asked whether there are factions in the military
making a move for a coup d'etat, she said "that is exactly
the problem; we do not have a strong military." When
pressed, she said that she does not have close contacts in
the military and is not aware of any group organizing a
takeover, although her body language suggested she knew more
than she was saying. At one point, she said "there is one
army within the other, and the smaller army is not controlled
by the Chef D'Etat Major." Rabiatou later said that there is
no evident leader within the military and that many officers
lack courage, but that many soldiers are frustrated with the
current situation.

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READY TO BE THE VICTIMS
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10. (SBU) Rabiatou made several references to perceived
threats against herself and union members. She mentioned
that her personal plantation, which is located in Boffa, was
burned to the ground on April 25. She said that her
plantation was similarly burned in 2007 during the nationwide
labor strike. When asked who might have done it, she
shrugged her shoulders and said she didn't know. Later in
the discussion, she said that union members are "ready to be
the first victims; we must defend change."

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UNION LEADERS IN AGREEMENT
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11. (SBU) Poloff also asked whether Rabiatou and fellow
union leader Dr. Ibrahima Fofana agree on the unions' current
position and activities. She said "as of this morning, we
did." She then said that it's a day to day thing as to
whether they see eye to eye, but for the time being, they are
in agreement.

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COMMENT
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12. (S) As in recent visits, Rabiatou appeared tired. She
was particularly pessimistic this time around and seemed to
see no visible solution to Guinea's political problems, at
least while the president is still in power. She seemed to
want to play up the martyr angle, although she did not
provide specific details about possible targeting of union
members, other than the fire at the plantation, and she did
not have much information about that incident either.
Several times during the conversation, she said that the
international community needed to intervene to fix the
situation. Poloff repeatedly said that elections offer the
best solution and that democracy is not something that can be
imposed by an external force. Rabiatou disagreed and said
that we (the international community) have done it many times
before. The discussion was decidedly cynical, with a clear
sense of fatalism, and lack of hope for a workable solution -
and this from one of the key leaders for change. END COMMENT.
CARTER