Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CONAKRY121
2008-04-18 14:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

CURRENT PERSPECTIVE FROM THE RULING PARTY

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV 
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VZCZCXRO2060
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0121/01 1091431
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181431Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2427
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000121 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CURRENT PERSPECTIVE FROM THE RULING PARTY

REF: CONAKRY 0041

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000121

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CURRENT PERSPECTIVE FROM THE RULING PARTY

REF: CONAKRY 0041

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. A recent discussion with a leading member of
the ruling Party for Unity and Progress (PUP) provides some
insights as to the current thinking of the party's
leadership. Contact is firmly behind the president and sees
the PUP as a powerful and significant political player. At
the same time, he sees the prime minister as irrelevant, and
likely to be dismissed soon. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On April 8, Poloff met with Aliou Banire Diallo,
President of the ruling Party for Unity and Progress (PUP)
within the National Assembly, and a member of the PUP's
executive board. Banire is considered the majority leader
within the national legislature.

--------------
PUP ALIVE AND WELL
--------------


3. (SBU) Banire was eager to assure Poloff that the PUP
continues to be a significant political actor. "The PUP is
very much alive; the others are dreaming if they think
otherwise," he said. According to Banire, proof of PUP
strength is evidenced by the fact that many of the regional
satellites of the National Independent Electoral Commission
(CENI),which are currently being installed across the
country, are electing PUP party members as commission chairs.
"The PUP is strong and we are well supported by all ethnic
groups, women, and young people," Banire said.


4. (SBU) Poloff remarked that construction activity on the
party's new headquarters (reftel) had ceased in recent months
and asked about the status of the project. Banire said that
it is a simple financing matter that party leaders expect to
resolve soon. He joked "Cellou Diallo (leader of the Union
Force Democratic Guinean (UFDG) opposition party) keeps
telling people that the delay means that the president no
longer supports the PUP, but that is not true." According to
Banire, the work on the project will resume soon.

--------------
TAKING ISSUE WITH AN NGO REPORT
--------------


5. (SBU) Banire told Poloff that he wanted to discuss a
November report issued by the American NGO International

Crisis Alert. He pulled out a copy of the report and
proceeded to show Poloff where the report said something
along the lines of "if Guinea fails to address these issues,
the country risks a return to a Conte controlled regime or a
military coup d-etat." Banire said that he took exception to
the word "risk." According to Banire, by using risk, the
report authors suggest that "a return to a Conte controlled
regime is a bad thing." He said the article is biased.
Poloff asked him if he had raised his concerns with the NGO.
Banire said he had and that the researchers apologized for
not including the PUP when they surveyed their contacts.

--------------
ON THE VERGE OF ANOTHER DISMISSAL
--------------


6. (C) When asked about the current political situation,
Banire said that Guinea is dynamic and that political events
develop very rapidly. "We must keep track of all these
events in a non-partisan way, but then expect that everyone
will react according to their respective interests," he said.
Banire added that the country is on the verge of "another
dismissal," which he indicated could mean either replacing
the prime minister or the minister of interior and security,
or both. "We will soon see a change in this government," he
said.


7. (SBU) Later elaborating what he described as his personal
viewpoint, Banire said that despite social and economic
pressures, he does not think "the same organizations have the
same support as they did in 2007." According to Banire, the
change effort has not helped alleviate the underlying
problems, and the cost of living has actually increased. He
added that various elements are out trying to manipulate
groups by giving cash, but that most of these groups are
simply taking the money and deciding to stay home.

--------------
PRESIDENT IS THE ONLY LEGITIMATE LEADER
--------------

CONAKRY 00000121 002 OF 002




8. (C) Banire stressed that the country's only
democratically legitimate leader at this point is President
Conte. "The Unions imposed Kouyate on the president and that
is who we have to work with," he said. According to Banire,
Kouyate was put into power to address fundamental problems,
but instead, he is abusing his power and specifically
mobilizing resources against the PUP. Banire added that the
government lacks unity, which makes the situation extremely
fragile.

--------------
WE WILL BE VIOLENT TOO
--------------


9. (C) Alluding to the potential for civil unrest, Banire
said that in 2007, citizens saw the PUP as the
administration, and as such, destroyed government buildings
and resources. "Last year's violence caused great damage to
the PUP," Banire said. However, he pointed out that there is
a new administration in place and that the PUP no longer
represents the administration. "We are no longer telling
people to remain quiet; we will not react the same way this
time; if there is violence, we will respond with violence,"
he told Poloff.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Banire's viewpoints are similar to those expressed
by the secretary general of the party in January (reftel) and
give some indication as to the current thinking of the ruling
party. Some of his comments were vague rhetoric at best and
did not necessarily make sense. However, since Conte fired
Kouyate's minister of communications in January,
precipitating a shift in the balance of power between the two
leaders, the PUP has come out of hiding and has been very
busy mobilizing political support in anticipation of an
eventual change in government, which may or may not be
represented by legislative elections. END COMMENT.
CARTER