Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CONAKRY115
2008-02-12 14:59:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

MINORITY PARLIAMENTARY PARTY CONCERNED ABOUT

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV 
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VZCZCXRO6086
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0115/01 0431459
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121459Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2163
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000115 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: MINORITY PARLIAMENTARY PARTY CONCERNED ABOUT
ELECTIONS

REF: A. CONAKRY 0089


B. CONAKRY 0069

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000115

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: MINORITY PARLIAMENTARY PARTY CONCERNED ABOUT
ELECTIONS

REF: A. CONAKRY 0089


B. CONAKRY 0069


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Although leaders of the UPR opposition
political parties see elections as an important political
element, they remain pessimistic as to whether elections can
be organized transparently and in a timely fashion. They
were circumspect with regards to Guinea,s current political
environment, but seemed unconvinced that various actors will
be able to find a workable solution to the political impasse
stemming from a power struggle between the president and the
prime minister. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Continuing a series of initial meetings with
Guinea,s main political parties (reftel A),the Ambassador
met with leaders of the Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR)
opposition party on February 5. Party President Ousmane Bah
was accompanied by three members of his executive bureau:
Mr. Yaya Keita (Administrative Secretary),Mr. Hamidou Diallo
(External Relations),and Diao Kante (Elections). All four
UPR members are also deputies in the National Assembly,
representing the only legislatively active opposition party.
Poloff also participated in the meeting.

--------------
NOWHERE CLOSE TO ELECTIONS
--------------


3. (SBU) After exchanging pleasantries, the meeting focused
almost exclusively on elections. Diao Kante told the
Ambassador that everyone is waiting for a concrete idea of
how much time is needed to register voters with the new kits
being provided by the European Union and then everyone will
agree on a date for elections and an appropriate preparatory
schedule. He noted that some Guineans are talking about
holding elections as early as June, but that he is personally
pessimistic about such a timeline. According to Kante, one
of the reasons behinds the CENI,s (National Independent
Electoral Commission) budget woes is the fact that the
commission has been unable to put together a well defined
budget coupled with the fact that CENI financing was not
included in the national budget passed by the National
Assembly. Kante noted that funds for campaign financing,
which is permitted under the election reform law passed in
2007, was also not included in the national budget. Kante

said that it will be difficult for the government to find
money for elections since the newly returned IMF program does
not allow for extra-budgetary expenditures.


4. (SBU) Kante also noted that the Guinean electoral code
requires that at least 60 days must elapse between when the
voter lists are completed and when elections are actually
held. He said that the registration process is likely to
take a couple of months and if 60 days is added on top of
that, Guinea will already be in its rainy season. Kante
added that he did not think it was possible to organize
elections in 2008 and that they should probably be pushed to
2009, which would mean that they could get pushed to 2010 and
be held conjointly with the presidential elections in order
to reduce the financial burden on the government.


5. (SBU) The Ambassador questioned whether the UPR thought
budgetary issues were really the problem or whether political
will was lacking. Ousmane Bah chuckled at that point and
said that political will is the underlying issue. He said
that the ruling Party for Unity and Progress (PUP) is not
interested in elections and is blocking progress. He noted
that other opposition parties want the elections, but lack
the courage to push back. The Ambassador emphasized that if
Guinea fails to hold legislative elections before the end of
2008, the U.S. will be forced to seriously reconsider its
proposed elections assistance program.

--------------
DEMOCRATIC AT HEART
--------------


6. (SBU) Emphasizing that a strong democracy requires
adherence to democratic principles within its organizational
structures, the Ambassador asked Bah if the UPR sees itself
as a democratic institution. Bah said that the UPR is
absolutely democratic at heart, and that it will hold a
national convention to elect the party,s candidates for the
elections. Speaking of democracy in general, Bah reminded
the Ambassador that it is just since April that we have had
a true multiparty system,, and the parties are learning how
to operate in this new system.

CONAKRY 00000115 002 OF 002



--------------
ETHNIC PROBLEMS ) BUT NOT FOR US
--------------


7. (SBU) Citing concerns about parties appearing to be
organized according to ethnicity, the Ambassador asked Bah
how the UPR sees the ethnic issue. Bah acknowledged that
much of the party,s support comes from the Fouta region
(Peuhls),but that the party is represented throughout the
country. Although he did not necessarily see ethnicity as a
major issue for the UPR, he told the Ambassador that he
agrees that ethnicity is a problem that the political parties
need to address.

--------------
PM HAS FAILED TO DELIVER
--------------


8. (SBU) The Ambassador also asked Bah for his thoughts on
the current political environment. Bah said that Prime
Minister Lansana Kouyate always seems to say the right
things,, but that his actions do not support his words. He
noted that the PM always claims that things are fine between
the presidency and the PM, but that things are clearly at
odds. Bah added that the PM made a number of promises to the
population and people are still waiting for those promises to
be met.


9. (SBU) Turning to the labor unions, plan to resume a
nationwide strike on March 31 if the January 27 Accords are
not respected, Bah asked what is our exit?, He said that
the problem has not been resolved and it is unclear whether
the existing mechanisms are going to be able to offer a
workable solution. The Ambassador encouraged Bah to work
with other actors toward a national dialogue. Bah noted that
the opposition parties planned to meet with the labor unions
on February 6 to discuss opportunities for collaboration.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) Based on various meetings with political parties
by the Ambassador and Poloff, all the parties seem to see
ethnicity as a potentially dangerous, divisive issue in the
upcoming elections ) but only for all the other parties.
Ousmane Bah was no different although he did acknowledge that
his support base is predominantly Fulani. On the question of
democratic structures within party institutions, all of the
parties are equally eager to assure Embassy officials of
their inherent democratic structure. This may be true with
respect to the 33 seats determined by individual prefectures,
but it is much less clear for the remaining 81 seats which
have traditionally been doled out according to various
indicators of influence such as financial wealth, social
status, etc.


11. (SBU) Echoing comments made to Poloff on January 23,
Ousmane Bah and his UPR colleagues appear to be less than
optimistic when it comes to elections. They seem to agree
that the elections are important, but less convinced that
they can be organized transparently and in a timely manner.
As the only opposition party in the National Assembly, the
UPR deputies have more than six years experience dealing with
the ruling party,s machine and are probably very familiar
with real and potential institutional blockages,, which
could be coloring their outlook on elections. At the same
time, the UPR may be concerned about its own popular support
since it initially began as more of a political construct
designed to counterbalance the PUP. With Sidya Toure (UFR)
and Cellou Diallo (UFDG) likely to draw significant Fulani
support, the UPR may be worried about its own political
standing, and not unlike the PUP, less than eager to push too
hard for elections that may end or reduce their political
influence. For the time being, the UPR seems to be in wait
and see, mode. END COMMENT.
CARTER