WITH OR WITHOUT THE PRESIDENT - GUINEA'S POLITICAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 CONAKRY 000011

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: WITH OR WITHOUT THE PRESIDENT - GUINEA'S POLITICAL
DYNAMIC

REF: A. CONAKRY 0029

B. CONAKRY 0164

C. CONAKRY 0202

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. With two weeks remaining before Guinea faces
the March 31 deadline for resuming a nationwide labor strike,
various political actors are working quietly behind the
scenes to define the next stage of the country's ongoing
political and economic struggle. A parallel dialogue process
spearheaded by opposition political parties and the labor
unions seeks to develop a unified strategy for change. While
some actors are calling for cooler heads and working towards
legislative elections in December, others are pushing to
demand the president's resignation. Diverse groups and
diverse interests agree that the president is the problem,
but are still trying to find a solution acceptable to all.
In the meantime, various political actors appear to be making
calculated moves aimed at improving their chances of emerging
victorious when the president's position comes up for grabs,
whether that be in the next few weeks or the next few years.
END SUMMARY.


2. (S) In order to develop a better understanding of the
political dynamic unfolding in Guinea as the country moves
towards a March 31 deadline set by the labor unions (reftel
A),Poloff met with range of actors who are participating in
a parallel dialogue process aimed at developing a unified
strategic platform for resolving Guinea's leadership crisis.
Following the March 4 meeting with Dr. Fofana of the Union of
Guinean Workers (USTG) (reftel B),Poloff met with Mme Saran
Kaba of the Mano River Union Women's Network NGO on March 10,
with opposition leader Ousmane Bah of the Union for Progress
and Renewal (UPR) party on March 11, with opposition leader
Sidya Toure of the Union Force Republican (UFR) party on
March 12, with the Coordination of Wisemen on March 13, and
with Lt. Colonel Vivace, a member of the civil-military
committee the U.S. Government helped establish a few years
ago, also on March 13.

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A PARALLEL DIALOGUE
--------------


3. (S) In January 2008, the labor unions and the government
agreed to establish a Committee de Suivi as a mechanism for
reviewing the implementation of the January 2007 Accords that
led to the consensus government and Prime Minister Lansana
Kouyate's appointment (reftel A) in March. However, few
political actors seem to believe that the Committee process
will result in a concrete solution to Guinea's underlying
political tensions. This is due in part to the fact that the
Committee is chaired by the President of the National
Assembly, and that participants include high-level
representation from Guinea's two other republican
institutions, the Supreme Court and the Economic and Social
Council. Furthermore, the Committee effectively excludes
opposition political party participation. As a result,
various leaders began a parallel dialogue process to allow
broader participation and to create a generally acceptable,
unifying platform for pursuing political change. This
parallel group has met several times over the past two
months. It includes opposition political parties, the
unions, civil society, religious leaders, the Coordination of
Wisemen, and the civil-military committee. Participants say
that the ruling Party for Unity and Progress was invited, but
has not joined the meetings.


4. (S) With such a diverse group of actors, there appears to
be a broad spectrum of possible courses of action for the
coming months. On the right are the advocates of keeping the
peace, staying calm, and working diligently towards free and
fair, transparent legislative elections at the end of the
year. At the other extreme are those calling for the
president to be removed so that a period of political
transition leading to prompt presidential elections can be
ushered in. Participants told Poloff that they are hoping to
agree on a common strategy before the end of March, but that
the process may take them into early to mid April.

--------------
THE PROBLEM IS THE PRESIDENT
--------------


5. (S) While there is much debate as to possible solutions,
everyone seems to agree on the fundamental underlying
problems. Contacts independently told Poloff that the

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country needs a regime change and the only way Guinea will be
able to advance democratically and economically is if the
president is removed from office, either literally or
practically. There was a general consensus as well that
Prime Minister Kouyate is increasingly becoming a liability
and has failed to fulfill his mandate. Contacts commented on
continued economic hardship, lack of basic infrastructure,
and general frustration with endemic corruption and weak
governance.

--------------
THE VOICES OF CALM
--------------


6. (S) Although civil society contacts are just as
dissatisfied with the president and the consensus government
as other actors, they appear to be more conservative in their
views of how change should be achieved. According to Mme
Kaba of the Mano River Union Women's Network, legislative
elections are the key to peaceful, democratic progress. She
told Poloff that "elections are the only alternative that can
satisfy everyone." For Kaba, one of the main reasons behind
the parallel dialogue process is to provide a mechanism for
unifying various actors in order to avoid a possible labor
strike and the violence that could follow. She said that
Guinea's return to an IMF funded program is a significant
consideration and that political actors recognize that a
return to instability and possible violence could jeopardize
much needed progress on economic reforms.


7. (S) However, Kaba pointed out that this strategy will
only work if the situation remains relatively static. She
noted that the president's office has been quietly picking
away at the consensus government and provoking the
population. Kaba told Poloff that there are essentially two
possible paths over the coming months. On the one hand, the
presidency may continue to push with relatively insignificant
actions that irritate the population but do not dissuade them
from peacefully pursuing legislative elections. The other
possibility is that the presidency does something absolutely
unacceptable, causing the populace to react violently, likely
resulting in a military intervention. According to Kaba,
Guinea's youth are impatient and want change immediately, and
may be eager for open conflict. She said that it would not
take much to spark a negative reaction. When asked what kind
of presidential action might be considered unacceptable, Kaba
said that replacing the Minister of Interior and Security,
who is responsible for elections, would be unforgivable, as
would be replacing the PM. She said that even if the
population is unhappy with the PM, they would likely protest
on principle since it would undermine the January 2007
Accords.

--------------
THE RADICALS
--------------


8. (S) At the other end of the spectrum are those who want
to call for the president to step down in order to create an
immediate period of political transition leading to
presidential elections. Dr. Fofana of USTG is in this camp
(reftel B) as is Sidya Toure of the UFR political party.
According to Sidya Toure, the Committee de Suivi is
irrelevant because the January 2007 Accords are irrelevant.
He told Poloff that the president is at the root of Guinea's
political and economic problems and the country cannot afford
to wait two or three years for either presidential elections
or Conte's death. Toure said that the dialogue group will
likely call for the president to step down, although various
actors have not yet agreed on a common strategy. When asked
about the possible labor strike, Sidya said that the strike
would only support Kouyate, which is something he is not
interested in. However, when Poloff asked what would happen
if "Les Force Vivres" demanded the president's resignation,
he said that it is possible that the presidency will refuse,
which could usher in a strike. He noted that such a strike
would not be economic in nature, but rather, a sort of
socio-political strike against the government, with broad
based popular support.


9. (S) Poloff commented that a call for the president's
resignation could escalate political tensions and encourage
violence, much like in early 2007. Sidya said that "we would
have violence anyway if we go forward with the unions'
strike; we cannot let things continue in this way." He added
that the situation is also different from the previous year
in that he and other political actors can draw on the lessons
learned in 2007. "We have experience this time around," he

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said. Sidya said that the president is not capable of
resisting (reftel C) and that three of his long-time generals
are dead. When Poloff asked if the military would support a
call for impeachment, Sidya said "that is why we invited them
to participate in our dialogue; the situation is different
now."


10. (S) As for elections, Sidya said that legislative
elections are irrelevant and the country should be focused on
presidential elections. He said that no one party will win a
clear majority in legislative elections, which will create a
free for all in the National Assembly and block any progress
towards reforms. "The same situation will continue," he
said. Poloff asked Sidya who would serve as head of
government during a political transition, pointing out that
it would be some months before presidential elections could
be organized. Sidya said that it will be a big debate, but
that it should be someone non-partisan, and definitely not
the PM. He said that Monsignor Robert Sara has been
suggested as well as Monsignor Gomez. Sidya added that
elections could be organized very quickly if necessary since
the main challenge is the voter registration process, which
is scheduled to start in April.

--------------
IN THE MIDDLE
--------------


11. (S) As usual, fellow opposition leader Ousmane Bah, of
the UPR, was more circumspect and cautious than Sidya. He
agreed that the president is the problem, and that the PM has
been ineffective. Bah said that a period of political
transition will be necessary, but it is unclear as to whether
such a transition will be intentional or accidental. Bah
echoed some of Mme Kaba's comments in that he also seemed to
see two possible paths. He said that successful legislative
elections and a new National Assembly could serve as a
mechanism for an organized period of political transition.
However, Bah added that transparent, timely elections are not
guaranteed, and that the current climate of uncertainty
creates opportunities for actions that could push the country
towards an "accidental" period of political transition.


12. (S) When asked about potentially divisive decisions
originating from the president's office, Bah said that the
president can replace any minister he wants, but that will
not necessarily generate a negative reaction. According to
Bah, the key is how the president does it and who he chooses
as the replacement.

--------------
The "Mediators"
--------------


13. (S) The Coordination of Wisemen was represented by the
four leaders of each of Guinea's natural regions, who
self-identified themselves by ethnicity: the Fulani, the
Malinke, the Soussou, and the Forest tribes. Through the
course of the conversation, the ethnic leaders repeatedly
emphasized their neutrality and the fact that they are
non-partisan. At one point, the Malinke leader said "our job
is to mediate; we do not take sides." However, they were
also highly critical of the government, including both the
president and the PM, in a non-direct way. The Fulani leader
pointed out that the consensus government has failed to
achieve even one-third of the objectives outlined in the
January 2007 Accords. He commented at length on the economic
hardships the country continues to face, hinting that these
problems are not exclusive to Kouyate, but to years of weak
governance. The leaders acknowledged that they are
participating in the parallel dialogue process, but
emphasized that they are there to provide advice. When
Poloff asked what kind of advice they were giving, they said
that they do not get involved in politics and do not
influence political decisions; they just arbitrate.

--------------
The Military
--------------


14. (S) Lt. Colonel Vivace, an officer in Guinea's Air
Force, told Poloff and DATT that the unions will not go
through with the strike. When Poloff commented that Vivace
is a member of the civ-mil committee and participating in the
dialogue process, Vivace coyly said "you can say that."
However, he revealed nothing about the actual negotiations
and the role the military is playing in that dialogue process.


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15. (S) According to Vivace, Guinea does not have any
problems, only economic maladies. He said that people are
complaining about the price of goods, but that the reality is
that commodities are actually cheaper in Guinea than anywhere
else in West Africa. He blamed the Kouyate government for
ongoing economic problems such as rising prices and poor
infrastructure.


16. (S) As for the unions, Vivace said "they are not that
powerful" and emphasized that the consensus government that
the unions put in office has failed, so the unions have
nothing to stand on as the country approaches a possible
labor strike. He added that the unions are irrational and
have overstepped their bounds, asking "is it normal for labor
unions to demand the removal of the chief of state?" Vivace
said that the real power in Guinea is the women and children,
but that they will not support a strike. "We have succeeded
in sensitizing the youth and they will not be participating
in any strike," he said. According to Vivace, the political
debate is centered on Conakry and if a strike is called,
there will be no reaction from the provinces.


17. (S) Conversely, Mme Kaba's personal opinion was that the
military wants a better quality of life just like everyone
else and is likely to play a role in the coming months,
especially if things come to a head with a nationwide strike.
She noted that the younger soldiers are increasingly
dissatisfied, but that they do not have a clear leader. Kaba
said that "if they are sincere, they will not intervene in a
partisan way, but just calm the situation and help establish
a peaceful transition leading to presidential elections."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


18. (S) While it is still unclear what things will look like
at the end of the month, the various key political actors are
talking with each other and making progress towards a unified
plan. There are voices advocating for calm, but there seem
to be more people pushing for more direct action. They
acknowledge that it could lead to violence, but do not have a
clear idea of how to resolve the situation if it gets to that
point. For those who are advocating for a regime change
(Fofana and Sidya),their ideas as to how a political
transition would work and who would lead it are vague at
best. If the president is indeed incapacitated (reftel C),
intentionally provocative actions originating from the
presidency are increasingly likely. Various political actors
appear to be making calculated political moves aimed at
improving their chances of coming out on top when the
president's position comes up for grabs, regardless of
whether that is by "accident or intention." Civil society
seems to be more concerned with the general underlying issues
while the political parties, the labor unions, the
president's office, the PM's office, and the military more
likely have their eye on the big prize.


19. (S) The dialogue process seems to be spearheaded by the
opposition political parties and the labor unions. However,
the group has not confronted the government (either Conte or
Kouyate) and various contacts have told Poloff that they
prefer to define their platform before discussing it with the
government. Several contacts have emphasized that they have
invited wide participation, but the PUP, for example, has
chosen to abstain. It is increasingly looking like "Les
Force Vivres" will decide what it is they want to do and then
simply present it to the government with a "take it or leave
it" attitude. Among those who are advocating for a regime
change, there seems to be a sense that they were at this
point in 2007, but backed down prematurely. They may be less
willing to back down this time around.


20. (S) The meeting with Colonel Vivace was particularly
troubling. He appeared to be completely out of touch with
reality. It seemed that for him, the military is in charge
and the people are unlikely to revolt. Several of his
comments led to the distinct impression that he sees the
general population as ignorant, uninformed, and unconcerned.
His attention seemed to be focused on the labor unions, which
he discounted as a significant political force. Since his
name came up as one of the military officers participating in
the dialogue, his comments were surprising since he would
have assumably been privy to the broader political context
and discussions which go beyond the unions. He seemed
genuine in his commentary, but he may have been simply giving
us the party line. Embassy is aware of another civ-mil
contact in the gendarmerie and will follow up with him next

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week in order to get a better sense of the military's
perspective on and role in this dialogue process. END
COMMENT.

BROKENSHIRE