MALDIVES: BOUCHER VISITS MALDIVES FOR FIRST BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000765

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS
DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY FOR JEAN-PAUL DUVIVIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: BOUCHER VISITS MALDIVES FOR FIRST BIG
STEP TOWARDS ELECTIONS

REF: COLOMBO 744

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Assistant Secretary of State for South and
Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher visited Male August 6,
a day before President Gayoom signed the new constitution
(ref A) which provides the legal framework for the first
multi-party presidential elections in Maldives' history.
President Gayoom, his ministers, the Opposition and the
nongovernmental community all highlighted the tight timeframe
the government faces to stand up the required independent
bodies and conduct two rounds of voting by the constitution's
October 10th deadline. Some members of the opposition and
nongovernmental representatives expressed concerns that the
timeframe would make holding a free and fair election
impossible. Nevertheless, ministers, the Opposition and
others welcomed assistance by the international community as
Maldives enters the final stages of its five-year long path
towards democracy. Boucher's meetings with the Finance and
Defense Ministers and the Police Commissioner highlighted the
economic, drug and extremist challenges the government faces
as well. End Summary

Constitution Signed: Supreme Court and Election
Commission Establishment Next
-------------- ---


2. (C) On August 6, a day before ratification and entry into
force of the new constitution, President Gayoom and several
government ministers outlined to visiting Assistant Secretary
Boucher numerous pieces of legislation that Parliament needed
to pass to meet the October 10 deadline for the selection of
the next President. Foreign Minister Abdullah Shahid stated
that "many many changes will take place" in the coming weeks,
noting that four ministers had resigned just that morning to
comply with the new constitutional regulation prohibiting
ministers from having business interests. All agreed that
the most important next steps are establishment of a
politically independent Election Commission and Supreme Court
to oversee the vote and adjudicate any disputes that arise
from the results. Boucher asked his interlocutors to assess
the level of cross-party cooperation in Parliament to
accomplish these tasks, since nominations to both require
two-thirds majority support. (Note: the President's party has
only a slight majority in Parliament). Assessments varied;
Defense Minister Ismail Shafeeu called cooperation "mixed;"
Shahid worried that in such a small society it would be hard
to identify figures who were viewed as independent by all the
parties; President Gayoom claimed cooperation across party
lines was occurring to "a great extent;" members of the
Opposition expressed cautious optimism that they would be
able to reach consensus on who would receive nominations to
the Election Commission.


3. (C) Boucher stressed in his public comments and to the
President directly that getting these independent bodies
right was very important and they, not a single election,
were the long-term guarantors of a a healthy democracy.
Police Commissioner Adam Zahir assured Boucher that the
Police would follow whatever regulations the Election
Commission established for the vote.

Some Opposition Members and NGO Representatives Express
Concern that Tight Timeframe May Prevent Free and Fair Vote
-------------- --------------

4. (C) Members of the multi-party Opposition National Unity
Alliance urged Boucher to send international observers, and
intercede with the government if necessary, to ensure a free
and fair election. Some members, particularly Male
parliamentarian and Social Liberal Pary Presidential
candidate Ibrahim Ismail (Ibra) highlighted concerns that the

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delays in the constitutional ratification process (the
President was originally supposed to sign the constitution in
March) had so compacted the election schedule that the very
fairness of the vote was now in question. Since there will
likely be two rounds of the election, and subsequent time
allotted for any court challenges, members of the Opposition
told us September 14 was the latest possible date to hold the
first round of voting. Opposition members noted that media
coverage was heavily tilted in the government's favor, with
only fifteen minutes of TV time given to each opposition
party twice a week. Despite this, they acknowledged the
media does devote coverage to the election and to opposition
candidates. Maldivian Democratic Party representatives
thanked Ambassador Blake for his intervention earlier this
year, which they said ensured that their party was covered by
TV.


5. (C) Opinions within the Opposition were mixed on whether
the compacted schedule so undermined the possibility of a
free and fair vote that the October 10 deadline should be
pushed back. Some opposition representatives expressed
concern that Maldives' patriarchal society left open the
possibility that individual island chiefs who had only known
Gayoom as their leader would use their influence to undermine
a free vote. In a separate meeting, members of Transparency
Maldives and other nongovernmental organizations working on
the elections briefed Boucher on public education campaigns
already underway. These groups are also in the process of
verifying the voter registry but complained that they have
too little time to certify its accuracy. With funding from
EU countries, Transparency Maldives is also setting up an
on-line complaint database to which Maldivians can text
message their reports.

High Deficit Forces Government to Cut Spending
-------------- -


6. (C) New Finance Minister Abdullah Jihaad outlined a $317
million projected fiscal deficit, due in part to a gap in
expected revenue because of three mega projects being
delayed by a year. (Note: Jihaad's predecessor, former
Finance Minister Gasim Ibrahim, resigned from the post July
10 and has now announced his membership in the opposition
Republican Party. Many observers expect Gasim, one of
Maldives' richest men, to run as the Republican Party's
Presidential nominee.) Jihaad also highlighted a growing
current account deficit, which he attributed to worldwide
high oil and food prices. He noted that the trade imbalance
was having an impact on the country's foreign currency
reserves. In order to deal with its budget crunch and the
deteriorating foreign exchange position, the government is
exploring leasing out five additional islands for resort
development, lengthening the term of the leases from 30 years
to 99 years to attract more investors. Boucher urged the
Minister to look into alternative energy sources to help
lessen the impact of imported oil, highlighting the U.S.
pilot project to bring wind power to three islands. President
Gayoom mentioned that in order to offset high energy costs,
one resort is now pumping deep ocean water to cool hotel
rooms instead of using traditional air conditioning.


7. (C) Jihaad also asked for assistance from the U.S. for the
Government's financial intelligence unit, reporting that he
had been told by the U.S. Treasury Department that no money
was available. Boucher asked the Minister to forward a
written proposal for consideration in Washington.

Extremism and Narcotics Concerns Also Raised
--------------


8. (C) Defense Minister Shareeu, Police Commissioner Zahir
and Foreign Minister Shahid all reported that the network

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behind the 2007 Male park bombing was part of a larger
international network of extremists. They noted that those
who were apprehended at the airport after the bombing at the
airport in Colombo all intended to flee to Pakistan. Other
conspirators had gotten away to Pakistan before the bombing;
however, the Pakistanis had provided little help in tracking
down the remaining suspects, they said. Shahid, stating that
"democracy can cause shaky ground", said that extremists
might try to take advantage of instability in the current
transition. He urged the U.S. to judge the Maldives'
election by a reasonable standard, since so much of the wide
reform program breaks new ground for Maldives. Zahir
reported that extremists are a higher concern for him than
any election-related violence. He expressed concern that
another bombing might be in the works. He claimed that
government plans to reach out to centers of religious
conservatism in Maldives had been stymied by resistance on
the part of some in Parliament. Zahir and Shafeeu admitted
that heroin addiction, and to a lesser extent hashish
trafficking, remained significant problems in Maldives.
Dubai and other points in the Gulf had been used as transit
points in the past. Shafeeu stressed the difficulty in
controlling access to and through Maldives' territorial
waters, with limited Coast Guard capabilities available.


9. (C) COMMENT: The August 7 ratification of the
Constitution is the most significant milestone so far in
Maldives' democratic transition. However, many still harbor
doubts about Gayoom's willingness to cede power if he
believes he may lose. In his meeting with Boucher, he said
he looked forward to hosting the SAARC Summit next year --
leaving little room for doubt that he expected to continue in
office. Gayoom may have embarked on this process of
democratization believing he could not lose an election.
However, with private opposition-sponsored polls showing his
vote share in the first round in the low 30s, it looks
increasingly likely that no one will receive 50% of the vote
necessary to avoid a runoff. We think it likely that the
majority of anti-Gayoom voters will coalesce around whichever
Opposition candidate makes it to the second round.
Maldivians both within and outside the government continue to
look to the international community, and the United States in
particular, for help in carrying out their democratic
development. A robust domestic observation program, with
support from international observers - including from the
U.S. Embassy in Colombo - will be critical to ensuring the
election is as free as possible. End Comment
BLAKE