KALMAN MISZEI BELIEVES MOLDOVA NEEDS 5-

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000983

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS PINR RS MD
SUBJECT: KALMAN MISZEI BELIEVES MOLDOVA NEEDS 5-
PLUS-2

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kelly Keiderling
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a September 29 meeting EU Special
Envoy Kalman Mizsei told Ambassador that he did not
believe the Russians were committed to a 5-plus-2
meeting. Mizsei opined that Moldova needed the
transparency of the 5-plus-2 process to protect it
from walking into a Russian trap. The U.S. and EU
shared a strategic interest with Moldova in using the
negotiating process to ensure that Russian troops
leave Moldova. End Summary.

Mizsei Questions Russian Commitment to 5-plus-2
-------------- --


2. (C) Ambassador met with EU Special Representative
Kalman Mizsei on September 29. Mizsei noted that
Russian negotiator Nesterushkin did not seem
committed to holding a 5-plus-2 meeting at this
time. Mizsei recounted that, during the previous
3-plus-2 round in Vienna on September 8, when
discussing plans for the next meeting, Mizsei had
proposed that it be held in Vienna or Helsinki.
Knowing that Nesterushkin liked to travel, Mizsei
had calculated that the Russian would be more likely
to support holding a meeting in Vienna or Helsinki
than in Odessa. Still, Mizsei noted that
Nesterushkin had made no formal commitment to
participate. Neither the GOM nor the Transnistrian
leadership were present at the September session,
and it was understood that the OSCE would have to
work with them to make the October 7-8 meeting
happen.

Moldova Needs 5-plus-2 to Avoid Russian Trap
--------------


3. (C) Mizsei opined that Moldova needed the
transparency of the 5-plus-2 process. He said that
if Moldova was left to the mercy of the Russians, it
would end up in a trap. Mizsei said that he was
relying upon Voronin not to walk into a Russian trap.
Mizsei planned to congratulate the Moldovan president
on successfully navigating the difficult diplomacy of
the past month and a half since the Georgian crisis
began. Voronin had shown good diplomacy; he had
resisted making any bad statements and avoided
irritating the Russians.


4. (C) Two schools of thought existed in the post-
Georgia world, opined Mizsei. One held that Russia
now had the psychological momentum and had created
fear in the region. Russia would use this fear to
pressure Moldova in Transnistria negotiations. The
other school suggested that Russia needed to show
some positive signs after Georgia. Mizsei suggested
that the only chance to test the second, more benign
alternative, was to tell the Russians very clearly
that constructive behavior meant going back to formal
5-plus-2 talks.

Mutual Interest in Having Russian Troops Leave
-------------- -


5. (C) Mizsei stated that the EU's interest, as much
as the Moldova's interest, was to ensure that the
Russian troops left. The departure of Russian troops
was a critical part of the settlement package, Mizsei
believed. The other key issue was neutrality. The
Russians stated that they needed international
guarantees but, noted Mizsei, with its many members
the EU was not free to give such a guarantee.

The Voronin-Smirnov Meeting that Didn't Happen
-------------- -


6. (C) According to Mizsei, the Russians had forced
Smirnov to agree to a meeting with Voronin (1-plus-1)
followed by a Voronin-Smirnov meeting with Medvedev
(2-plus-1). The Russians insisted that these
meetings were only consultations, and not meant to
replace the 5-plus-2 format. Mizsei noted that it
was in Russia's interest to have the Voronin-Smirnov
meeting happen. By insisting that the meeting be in
Bendery, Smirnov had established preconditions which,
Mizsei noted were not appropriate. However, Mizsei
also criticized Voronin for making an unhelpful
comment about Smirnov's regime belonging on the scrap
heap of history.

CHISINAU 00000983 002 OF 002



EU More Open to Moldova's European Aspirations
-------------- -


7. Mizsei said that the EU would accelerate its
relationship with Moldova. The next step would put
Moldova in the same status with Ukraine and Georgia.
The EU planned an acceleration of relations,
deepening free trade and facilitating Moldovans'
ability to obtain EU visas. Mizsei asked that the
USG reinforce the message that Moldova was at a
historical moment and needed to conduct elections in
a proper fashion and improve its investment climate
through deregulation. If Moldova made progress in
these two areas, then by next year it could be the
"darling of the Eastern Partnership," as Ukraine had
problems and Georgia was mired in conflict. "Moldova
can fly," he asserted. Ambassador agreed that the
USG also needed to pay more attention to Moldova than
in the past.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) If the Russians don't show up at the Vienna 5-
plus-2 meeting, we could question Russia's commitment
to resolving the Transnistria conflict. If Russia
shows up and the Transnistrians don't, the limits of
Russian power would be clear. The Russians are in a
somewhat uncomfortable position at the moment, unsure
if they can deliver the Transnistrians. This is only
a moment, however. Russia still holds the key to
resolving the Transnistria conflict and has many
levers with which to pressure Moldova.

KEIDERLING