PRESIDENT VORONIN: RELYING ON 5-PLUS-2 TO AVOID RUSSIAN TRAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000971

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS PINR AMGT RU MD
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT VORONIN: RELYING ON 5-PLUS-2 TO AVOID RUSSIAN TRAP

Classified By: Ambassador Asif Chaudhry for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In his first meeting with Ambassador, President
Voronin expressed his commitment to solving the Transnistria conflict
only in the 5-plus-2 format. He wanted to avoid falling into any
Russian "traps" that could appear if he negotiated directly with the
Russians. Outside interests such as CFE and Ukraine's desire to join
NATO were complicating efforts to solve the Transnistrian problem.
Nonetheless, eventually it will be solved, and President Voronin
asked the USG to consider giving post-conflict funding for a program
of eight confidence-building measures he had developed. End Summary.



2. (C) The Ambassador opened his September 30 initial courtesy call
on President Voronin with a promise to build even stronger, friendly
relations with Moldova. President Voronin responded with his own
appreciation of the warm relations he has enjoyed with the United
States and with all previous U.S. Ambassadors.

Moldova Needs 5-plus-2 to Avoid Russian "Trap"
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3. (C) President Voronin confirmed that Moldova would participate in
the upcoming 5-plus-2 talks in Vienna October 7-8. He underscored
his conviction that negotiations on Transnistria could take place
only in the 5-plus-2 format. Voronin said that he strongly desired a
solution, but would not make an agreement "at any price."


4. (C) Voronin said that the Transnistrian decision to participate in
the October 7-8 meetings in Vienna would depend upon Russia; if
Russia told them to participate, they would. Voronin went on to
express concerns that Russia would come up with a federation plan
that could threaten Moldova as an independent subject. This would be
a "trap" for Moldova. Voronin noted that if he signed any decision
accepting a Federation, Transnistria could then declare that it was
leaving the Federation to be an independent state.


5. (C) Voronin said that a second trap in the Kozak Memorandum had
been the proposal to keep Russian armed forces in Transnistria for a
period of 20 years. In order to avoid this trap, Voronin would stand
firmly on the principle of the 5-plus-2 format. That way, he argued,
if he missed spotting a hidden trap, he could count on his friends
from the U.S., EU or Ukraine to help him.


6. (C) Voronin did not provide many details about his own discussions
with the Russians. He said simply that the Russians did not object
to holding negotiations in the 5-plus-2 format. In his meeting with
President Medvedev, Voronin had agreed that next would be a
Medvedev-Smirnov meeting (which took place September 3),to be
followed by a Voronin-Smirnov meeting, and then a Voronin-Smirnov
plus Medvedev meeting in 2-plus-1 format. Voronin underlined that he
perceived such meetings as intermediary consultations before
beginning negotiations in a 5-plus-2 format, not negotiations.
Voronin suggested that many people make the mistake of not
differentiating between consultations and negotiations. No one
signs any documents after consultations; only in negotiations, he
underlined.


7. (C) Voronin noted that a Transnistrian settlement is further
complicated by games being played outside the borders of Moldova.
CFE cannot be signed, he said, because Russian troops are stationed
in Moldova. This situation is not convenient for Russia.
Additionally, with Ukraine aspiring to become a member of NATO, it is
convenient for Russia to maintain the Transnistrian territory along
the Ukrainian border under Russian control. Moldova was thus a
hostage to a wider situation that included factors in the Black Sea
region and other interests hindering the settlement process.

Time to Think about Post-Conflict Funding
--------------


8. (C) Eventually the conflict will be solved, posited Voronin, and
hence it was already time to begin thinking about the post-conflict
situation. Voronin said he doubted that Russia would give financial
support for post-conflict reintegration. Voronin told Ambassador
that for the first time, in 2009, the GOM was opening a new budget
chapter for expenses dealing with reintegration. The GOM had come up
with eight confidence-building measures, which all required financial
expenditures. Voronin said he would highly appreciate American
examination of and funding for these categories. The Ambassador
expressed his willingness to look at the proposals and see what
elements the USG might be able to support. He noted that the embassy
was currently in the process of conducting a review to determine
USAID activities over the next few years.

Voronin Satisfied with Work of Current Government
-------------- --------------


9. (C) President Voronin expressed his satisfaction with the current
government, noting that the majority were young enough that 17 years
ago they were still students, and hence were not influenced by old

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Soviet ideas. He praised the organizational skills, professionalism
and national spirit of his cadre. The parliament, he noted, was the
product of political forces, and hence different ideas could be
expressed there. Voronin suggested that at this point national
consciousness has been formed. More than 90 percent of the
population sees its future only as an independent state, and not
united with any other country.


10. (C) The Ambassador underscored the importance of the upcoming
Parliamentary elections. It was a unique historic moment. The whole
world, he said, would be watching to see what will happen. Hence, it
was important for Moldova's European aspirations that both the
elections and the pre-electoral campaign period be conducted
properly, including media freedom.

Bilateral Issues: A site for New Embassy
--------------


11. (C) The Ambassador mentioned to the President that the Embassy
was still looking for a site to build a new embassy building, and
indicated USG interest in the MOD site. President Voronin responded
that this territory belonged to the Government, not the municipality,
and was a good site. The Ambassador mentioned the old stadium field,
which is centrally located. While at first the President ruled it
out categorically, saying this has to be a stadium, he responded to
the Ambassador's suggestion that the GOM could use the money paid for
this site to build a new stadium elsewhere. The president noted the
difficulties of building a 40,000-seat stadium at the downtown
location, and as a result, that site might once again become
available for consideration.

Comment:
--------------


12. (C) The meeting seemed a positive and friendly opening to launch
the new Ambassador's relationship with President Voronin. Though
Voronin touched on some familiar themes expressing distrust of
Russian intentions and desire for integration with Europe, he seemed
to enjoy dialogue with his new interlocutor and to be eager to build
a good working relationship. As Moldova tries to move forward in the
5-plus-2 process, the leadership needs to know that doors in the west
are open. In the post-Georgia world, this is a time when Moldova
most needs to know it has options besides Russia.

CHAUDHRY